Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Major Updates (01:38 UTC - 02:08 UTC)

1. ISW Report: Ukrainian Advances near Vovchansk and in Kursk Oblast (CONFIRMED, SIGNIFICANT):

   • РБК-Україна: Cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report stating Ukrainian forces have advanced near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) and in Kursk Oblast (southeast of Sudzha).
   • Multiple Accompanying Maps (RBC-Ukraine): Provide detailed visual representations of the assessed control of terrain in various regions: Kursk, Kharkiv, Vovchansk, Luhansk, Donetsk, Toretsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kurakhove. These maps show areas of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives, assessed Russian advances, and areas of significant fighting.
   • Assessment: This is a highly significant development. The confirmation of Ukrainian advances, particularly within Russian territory in Kursk Oblast, represents a major shift in the conflict's dynamics. The advances near Vovchansk reinforce the ongoing battle for control of this strategically important area. The ISW maps provide crucial context and visual confirmation of the shifting frontlines.

2. ISW Report: Russian Advances near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka (CONFIRMED):

   • РБК-Україна: Also reports ISW's assessment of Russian advances near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast).
   • Assessment: This confirms ongoing Russian offensive operations in these areas, highlighting the continued pressure on Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast.

3. Destruction of Ukrainian UAV Control Point (REPORTED):

   • TASS: Reports that a Ukrainian UAV control point was destroyed west of Kurakhove (Donetsk Oblast).
   • Assessment: This needs further investigation to confirm.

4. Failed Ukrainian Counterattack near Dvurichna (REPORTED, PROPAGANDA POTENTIAL):

   • Colonelcassad: Claims a Ukrainian counterattack near Dvurichna (Kharkiv Oblast) failed, with Ukrainian forces suffering casualties. Includes a thermal imagery video purportedly showing the engagement.
   • Assessment: This could be used as propaganda.

5. Russian Artillery Strike (REPORTED):

   • TASS: Reports that a Russian Msta-S self-propelled howitzer destroyed a Ukrainian mortar and ammunition depot. Includes a video purportedly showing the strike.
   • Assessment: This could be used as propaganda.

Updated Situation Summary

• Ukrainian Advances Confirmed (EXTREME PRIORITY): The ISW report and accompanying maps confirm Ukrainian advances near Vovchansk and, most significantly, within Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. This represents a major escalation and a shift in the conflict's scope.
• Ongoing Russian Advances (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka) indicate continued offensive pressure.
• Intense Fighting in Multiple Regions: The ISW maps visually confirm intense fighting across multiple frontlines, particularly in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts.
• Drone Warfare Continues: Reports of a destroyed Ukrainian UAV control point and a claimed failed Ukrainian counterattack (with thermal imagery) highlight the ongoing importance of drone warfare.
• IMMEDIATE DRONE THREAT TO KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains a major concern.
• EXPANDED AIR THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): The threat of guided bomb attacks persists.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY AND EXPLOIT UKRAINIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather further intelligence to confirm the extent and nature of the Ukrainian advances within Russian territory.
   • Assess the strategic implications of this development, including potential Russian responses and the impact on the overall conflict.
   • Exploit this development for information operations, highlighting the expansion of the conflict onto Russian soil and the vulnerability of Russian border defenses.

2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN AREAS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Strengthen Ukrainian defenses near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka to counter Russian offensive operations.
   • Deploy additional troops, equipment, and fortifications as needed.
   • Prepare for potential counterattacks to regain lost territory.

3. MAINTAIN FOCUS ON VOVCHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the situation around Vovchansk closely, given the confirmed Ukrainian advances and the ongoing fighting.
   • Allocate resources to support Ukrainian operations in this area and maintain control of strategically important locations.

4. ANALYZE ISW MAPS IN DETAIL (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly analyze the ISW maps for each region to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current battlefield situation.
   • Identify key areas of conflict, potential vulnerabilities, and opportunities for strategic advantage.
   • Use this information to inform operational planning and resource allocation.

5. INVESTIGATE REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF UAV CONTROL POINT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to confirm.

6. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Address and counter the claims made by Colonelcassad and TASS regarding the failed Ukrainian counterattack and the artillery strike.

7. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION IN KYIV REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Maintain all previous recommendations)

8. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR AND MISSILE THREATS (COUNTRY-WIDE, EXTREME PRIORITY, PRIORITIZE EAST, NORTHEAST, SUMY, DONETSK, AND NOW KYIV): (Maintain all previous recommendations)

9. All Previous Recommendations: All other previous recommendations from prior reports remain valid, with the adjustments and prioritizations outlined above.

The confirmed Ukrainian advances, particularly the incursion into Kursk Oblast, represent a major turning point in the conflict. This, combined with the ongoing fighting and Russian advances in other areas, makes the situation extremely dynamic and requires immediate and decisive action. The ISW maps provide crucial context for understanding the evolving battlefield situation. The drone threat to Kyiv and the broader air threat remain critical concerns.