Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Major Updates (00:08 UTC - 00:38 UTC)

1. Drone Attacks Continue, Shift to Krasnodar (CONFIRMED, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT):

   • Multiple sources (TASS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна) report Ukrainian drone strikes in Krasnodar and the surrounding Krasnodar Krai region (specifically Afipsky and Afipsky Refinery).
   • TASS: Reports a drone shot down over Krasnodar, with debris falling on technical facilities on the roof of a residential building. No casualties reported. Another drone was shot down in Afipsky, damaging a private home.
   • ASTRA: Confirms damage to residential buildings in Krasnodar and Afipsky due to downed drones. Provides photo and video evidence.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports a fire at or near the Afipsky Oil Refinery after a drone attack. Shows video evidence.
   • РБК-Україна: Confirms a drone attack, with a fire at the Afipsky Oil Refinery.
   • Assessment: This represents a significant shift in the drone campaign, extending deep into Russian territory and targeting infrastructure. The Afipsky Oil Refinery is a strategically important target. While Russian authorities claim the drones were shot down, the reported fires and damage suggest at least partial success for the Ukrainian strikes. This demonstrates Ukrainian capability to strike targets deep inside Russia.

2. Kyiv Air Defenses Deactivate, Sumy Drone Damage (CONFIRMED):

   • КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) & РБК-Україна: Report the end of the air raid alert in Kyiv.
   • РБК-Україна & Оперативний ЗСУ: Show photo and video evidence of damage to a residential area in Sumy caused by a drone attack. Several cars were burned, and three apartment buildings had windows damaged.
   • Assessment: While the immediate threat to Kyiv has subsided (for now), the damage in Sumy confirms the ongoing risk and impact of drone attacks on civilian areas.

3. Air Activity Alert, Northeast (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast. This is a new development.
   • РБК-Україна: Confirms warning about enemy tactical aviation activity, with threats of aviation strikes to front-line regions.
   • Assessment: Threats of attacks using aircraft remain.

4. Continued Drone Activity (Chernihiv Oblast):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports continued movement of drones in the Chernihiv Oblast.
   • Assessment: Drone attacks may resume at any time.

5. Global Spirits Owner Denies Funding (Expected):

• TASS: Reports that the owner of the alcohol company denies funding.
• Assessment: This is likely to be a political move.

Updated Situation Summary

• DRONE ATTACKS SHIFT TO RUSSIA (KRASNODAR, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT, CONFIRMED): The successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Krasnodar and the Afipsky Oil Refinery represent a major escalation and demonstrate Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. This is a strategic victory for Ukraine, even if the damage is limited.
• KYIV (IMMEDIATE THREAT REDUCED, BUT VIGILANCE REQUIRED): The end of the air raid alert in Kyiv is a positive development, but the ongoing drone activity in other regions means the threat could return at any time.
• SUMY (CIVILIAN DAMAGE CONFIRMED): The drone attack on Sumy highlights the continuing impact of the conflict on civilian populations and infrastructure.
• AIR ACTIVITY ALERT, NORTHEAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): The report of enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast necessitates immediate and sustained monitoring and preparation for potential airstrikes.
• PERSISTENT DRONE THREAT (COUNTRY-WIDE, EXTREME, ONGOING): While the immediate focus has shifted, the ongoing reports of drone activity (Chernihiv Oblast) indicate that the widespread drone threat remains active across Ukraine.
• KHMELNYTSKYI/STAROKOSTIANTYNIV (CONTINUED VIGILANCE): While the immediate threat may have diminished, the previous intense focus on this area warrants continued monitoring.
• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN BUILD-UP NEAR SUDZHA (RUSSIAN CLAIM, STILL HIGH PRIORITY TO VERIFY): This remains unverified.
• VBIED: A possibility near Avdiivka, but was just a test.

Updated Recommendations

1. AIR DEFENSE (COUNTRY-WIDE, EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION, PRIORITIZE NORTHEAST AND AREAS NEAR RECENT STRIKES):

   • Maintain all previous air defense recommendations, with increased urgency, particularly in regions near recent strike locations (Krasnodar, Sumy, etc.).
   • Due to the report of enemy tactical aviation activity, prioritize air defenses in the northeast. This includes early warning systems, fighter patrols, and ground-based air defense systems.
   • Maintain high readiness in Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv, despite the current lull in activity.

2. VERIFY SUDZHA TROOP MOVEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • (Maintain all previous recommendations. This remains a critical intelligence gap).

3. ANALYZE KRASNODAR STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather detailed intelligence on the Krasnodar and Afipsky strikes. Assess the extent of the damage, the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics, and the Russian response.
   • Determine the specific types of drones used and their launch locations.
   • Evaluate the impact on Russian oil production and logistics, particularly at the Afipsky Refinery.
   • Assess the implications for Russian air defense capabilities and vulnerabilities.

4. CIVILIAN PROTECTION (SUMY, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide immediate assistance to the affected residents in Sumy.
   • Reinforce public awareness campaigns about air raid procedures and safety measures.
   • Consider relocating civilians from areas deemed to be at high risk of drone attacks.

5. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid, with the adjustments and prioritizations outlined above.

The situation has evolved significantly with the confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia. This, combined with the ongoing drone threat across Ukraine and the potential for airstrikes in the northeast, necessitates immediate and decisive action on air defense, intelligence gathering, and civilian protection.