Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 00:08 UTC

Major Updates (23:38 UTC - 00:08 UTC)

1. Continued Drone Activity, Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports more explosions in Kyiv.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports 3 drones approaching Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast).
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Provides a detailed breakdown of drone movements:
     • Drones in Kyiv Oblast, heading southwest. One near the capital.
     • Drones in Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Sumy Oblast.
     • Drones in Kharkiv Oblast, heading west.
     • Drones in Poltava Oblast, heading southwest and north.
     • Drones in Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west.
     • Drones in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
     • Later, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provides a summarized report of this situation.
   • НгП раZVедка: Reports black smoke in the southern part of Kyiv. (Claims it is related to the "election of the Pope," which is disinformation.)
   • РБК-Україна & КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration): Confirms air defense activity against drones in Kyiv. No debris impacts reported (as of the time of the report).
   • Assessment: The drone attack continues unabated, with Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv (likely the airbase) remaining primary targets. The detailed drone movement reports highlight the widespread nature of the attack, spanning multiple regions. Air defenses are actively engaged in Kyiv.

2. Ukrainian Troop Redeployment Near Sudzha (Claimed, HIGH PRIORITY TO VERIFY):

   • TASS: Claims that Ukrainian forces have redeployed over 320 personnel from Sumy and Chernihiv to the area near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, Russia).
   • Assessment: This claim requires immediate and thorough verification. If true, it could indicate preparation for a cross-border raid or incursion into Russian territory. This would be a significant escalation. It could also be disinformation intended to draw Russian forces away from other areas.

3. Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) near Avdiivka?

   • Colonelcassad: Shows a KAMAZ truck carrying explosives.
   • Assessment: This is concerning. It could be used near Avdiivka.
   • UPDATE: Video proves explosives were being tested.

4. Russian Asset Seizure (Unrelated):

   • TASS: Reports that the owner of the Global Spirits alcohol holding, Yevgeny Chernyak, has been declared internationally wanted, and his assets in Russia have been seized.
   • Assessment: This is a legal/economic issue, not directly related to the military situation on the ground. It might reflect broader economic warfare, but has no immediate tactical impact.

Updated Situation Summary

• PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (COUNTRY-WIDE, EXTREME, ONGOING, KYIV & STAROKOSTIANTYNIV): The drone attack remains the dominant feature. The focus is still on Kyiv and, now even more acutely, Starokostiantyniv (likely the airbase). The detailed tracking of drone movements across multiple regions demonstrates the breadth and complexity of the attack.
• KHMELNYTSKYI/STAROKOSTIANTYNIV (EXTREME PRIORITY): The continued concentration of drone activity specifically targeting Starokostiantyniv (likely the airbase) requires immediate and sustained air defense efforts.
• KYIV (CONTINUED THREAT, EXTREME PRIORITY): Repeated reports of explosions and confirmed air defense activity indicate ongoing attacks on Kyiv.
• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN BUILD-UP NEAR SUDZHA (RUSSIAN CLAIM, HIGH PRIORITY TO VERIFY): The claim of a Ukrainian troop redeployment near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, Russia) is extremely concerning and must be verified immediately. This could signal preparation for a cross-border operation.
• SLOVIANSK-NA-KUBANI ATTACK (CONFIRMED, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT): Confirmed as a Ukrainian strike deep inside Russia.
• UST-LUGA TANKER INCIDENT (POTENTIAL SABOTAGE): Remains a high-priority area for investigation.
• VBIED: A possibility near Avdiivka, but was just a test.

Updated Recommendations

1. AIR DEFENSE (COUNTRY-WIDE, EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION, PRIORITIZE KYIV & STAROKOSTIANTYNIV):

   • Maintain all previous air defense recommendations, with increased urgency.
   • Specifically, concentrate air defense assets around Starokostiantyniv and Kyiv. The airbase at Starokostiantyniv appears to be a primary target.
   • Maintain a high state of readiness across all regions due to the widespread nature of the drone attack.
   • Utilize all available tracking and early warning systems to anticipate drone movements and optimize interception efforts.

2. VERIFY SUDZHA TROOP MOVEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT) to immediately verify the TASS report of Ukrainian troop movements near Sudzha.
   • Determine the size, composition, and intent of any Ukrainian forces in the area.
   • Prepare for potential escalation if the report is confirmed, including possible cross-border operations.
   • Assess the possibility of this being disinformation intended to divert Russian resources.

3. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations from the 23:38 UTC report and earlier remain valid, with the critical adjustments and prioritizations outlined above. The ongoing, widespread drone attack, with particular focus on Starokostiantyniv and Kyiv, and the potential for a Ukrainian operation near Sudzha, represent the most immediate and critical threats.

4. INVESTIGATE VBIED: Check for any additional reports or suspicious activity.

The situation is extremely critical due to the ongoing, large-scale drone attack and the potential for escalation with a possible Ukrainian operation near Sudzha. Immediate action on air defense and verification of the troop movement claim are of paramount importance.