Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 23:38 UTC

Major Updates (23:08 UTC - 23:38 UTC)

1. Sumy Drone Strike (Casualty Confirmed):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports that a woman, born in 1987, was hospitalized due to the drone strike in a residential area of Sumy. The number of damaged buildings has increased to five.
   • Assessment: This confirms a civilian casualty from the Sumy drone strike, escalating the severity of the attack.

2. Kyiv Explosions (Confirmed):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports that explosions were heard in Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This likely indicates continued drone activity in the Kyiv area, and that air defenses were, or are, active.

3. Drone Movements (Continued Threat, Khmelnytskyi Region):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Provides further updates on drone movements: * 3 drones from Zhytomyr region are heading towards Khmelnytskyi region. * 1 drone from the south of Vinnytsia region is also moving towards Khmelnytskyi region. * 1 drone at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, heading northwest. * 5 drones west of Poltava, heading north. * 2 drones approaching Kyiv through Brovary. * 2 drones in the Nizhyn area. * 1 drone east of Chernihiv, heading east. * 1 drone heading towards/through Pryluki.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Issues a warning for Khmelnytskyi region regarding the threat of attack drones.
   • Assessment: The drone attack continues, with a clear shift in focus towards Khmelnytskyi region. The approach of drones towards Kyiv through Brovary suggests a continued threat to the capital. The overall number of active drones remains high, posing a significant challenge to air defenses.

4. Sloviansk-na-Kubani, Russia (Drone Attack):

   • РБК-Україна & Операция Z: Report that the city of Sloviansk-na-Kubani in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, is under drone attack, with air defenses active. At least 10 explosions were heard. Операция Z claims about 5 drones were shot down near the Afipsky Oil Refinery.
   • Assessment: This is a significant development, indicating a Ukrainian drone attack deep inside Russian territory. The targeting of an oil refinery (if confirmed) would suggest an attempt to disrupt Russian fuel supplies. This demonstrates a Ukrainian capability to strike targets beyond the immediate conflict zone.

5. Scholz on NATO Membership (No Immediate Prospect):

   • TASS: Reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Ukraine's membership in NATO is not currently on the agenda.
   • Assessment: This confirms the current Western stance, delaying any immediate prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. While not a direct change in policy, it reiterates the limitations of Western support in terms of direct military intervention.

6. Tanker Incident (Ust-Luga, Russia):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Reports on an explosion on the tanker "Koala" in the port of Ust-Luga, Russia. The tanker is allegedly part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent sanctions. Reports indicate three explosions in the engine room, causing the ship to partially sink. The crew (Russians, Georgians, and Indonesians) evacuated. Russian authorities claim the incident was due to a "technogenic incident" during engine startup and that there is no threat of an oil spill.
   • Assessment: This incident, if confirmed as sabotage, could represent a Ukrainian attack on Russian infrastructure used to support the war effort. The use of the "shadow fleet" to evade sanctions is a known tactic, and this attack could disrupt those efforts. The conflicting reports (explosions vs. engine malfunction) require further investigation.

7. Kulynych Details (Spy):

• Операция Z: Claims The Times exposed details of ex-Crimean SBU head Oleg Kulynych, who was a Russian spy.
• Assessment: This indicates a major intelligence breach within Ukraine before the war.

8. Soldier's Testimony (Misuse of Troops):

• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Reports that a soldier was promised a demining role but was sent to the front line.
• Assessment: This indicates poor Russian logistics and organization, and has a negative impact on morale.

9. Trump Putin Meeting (Claimed):

• ТАСС: Claims Trump is open to meeting with Putin.
• Assessment: This does not represent a change in the military situation.

10. European Politics (Right-Wing):

• Операция Z: Reports right-wing politicians criticizing European policies.
• Assessment: This does not represent a change in the military situation.

Updated Situation Summary

• PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (COUNTRY-WIDE, CRITICAL, ONGOING, SHIFTING FOCUS TO KHMELNYTSKYI): The drone attack remains the dominant feature, with a clear shift in focus towards Khmelnytskyi region. The continued activity in the Kyiv area and the new casualty in Sumy highlight the ongoing threat.
• KHMELNYTSKYI THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, EMERGING): The concentration of drone activity targeting Khmelnytskyi region requires immediate attention and deployment of air defense assets.
• SLOVIANSK-NA-KUBANI ATTACK (POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN STRIKE DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT): The reported drone attack in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, is a major escalation, demonstrating a Ukrainian capability to strike targets well beyond the immediate conflict zone.
• KYIV (CONTINUED THREAT): The reported explosions in Kyiv confirm continued drone activity and the need for sustained air defenses.
• SUMY STRIKE (CONFIRMED CASUALTY): The hospitalization of a woman injured in the Sumy drone strike confirms a civilian casualty, escalating the severity of the attack.
• UST-LUGA TANKER INCIDENT (POTENTIAL SABOTAGE): The explosion on the tanker "Koala" in Ust-Luga, Russia, could represent a Ukrainian attack on infrastructure used to support the Russian war effort.
• NO IMMEDIATE NATO MEMBERSHIP (CONFIRMED): Scholz's statement confirms that Ukraine's NATO membership is not currently on the agenda, reiterating the limitations of Western support.
• KULYNYCH (SPY): High ranking official was a spy, a major intelligence failure.
• SOLDIER MISUSED: Soldier's testimony indicates problems in Russia's military.
• TRUMP/PUTIN: No direct impact.
• EUROPE: No direct impact.

Updated Recommendations

1. AIR DEFENSE (COUNTRY-WIDE, EXTREME PRIORITY, PRIORITIZE KHMELNYTSKYI):

   • Maintain all previous air defense recommendations.
   • Specifically, prioritize air defense assets in Khmelnytskyi region due to the concentrated threat.
   • Maintain a high state of alert in the Kyiv area.
   • Continue to monitor drone movements and adjust deployments dynamically based on the evolving threat.
   • Address the potential threat of drones entering from Belarusian airspace.
   • DEFEND KHMELNYTSKYI, VINNITSYA, ZHYTOMYR, KYIV & ODESA: Focus resources.

2. INVESTIGATE SLOVIANSK-NA-KUBANI ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to confirm the Ukrainian responsibility for the drone attack in Krasnodar Krai.
   • Assess the damage to the Afipsky Oil Refinery (if confirmed as the target).
   • Prepare for potential Russian retaliation.

3. INVESTIGATE UST-LUGA INCIDENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to determine the cause of the explosion on the tanker "Koala."
   • Assess the potential impact on Russian oil exports.

4. SUMY (SUPPORT CASUALTY, INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIR, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide medical care to the injured woman in Sumy.
   • Continue to prioritize repairs to the disrupted gas supply.
   • Provide support to affected residents.

5. MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED SECURITY (COUNTRY-WIDE): Given the escalating drone activity and the potential for further attacks, maintain a high state of security across Ukraine.

6. MONITOR RUSSIAN AIRSPACE CLOSURES (HIGH PRIORITY): Still valid.

   • Gather intelligence to determine the precise reason for the airspace restrictions over Nizhny Novgorod and Volgograd.

7. INVESTIGATE KULYNYCH (SPY): Investigate thoroughly, understand the extent of damage, and prevent future security breaches.

8. ADDRESS SOLDIER MISUSE: Investigate and address Russian military organization.

9. All Previous Recommendations: All recommendations from the previous reports remain valid, with the adjustments and prioritizations outlined above. The persistent, widespread drone attack, with a shift in focus to Khmelnytskyi region, and the potential Ukrainian strike deep inside Russia, represent a significant escalation and require immediate attention.

The situation is extremely critical due to the continued widespread drone attack, the potential shift in focus to Khmelnytskyi, and the potential Ukrainian strike deep inside Russia. These developments require immediate attention and adaptive strategies.