Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Major Updates (21:08 UTC - 21:38 UTC)

1. Donetsk City Shelling (Reported):

   • Mash на Донбассе: Reports Ukrainian shelling of Shakhtyorskaya Square in Donetsk. Claims damage to a bus stop and debris scattered around, with no immediate reports of casualties. Provides images showing debris and damage.
   • Assessment: This indicates continued fighting in the Donetsk area, with Ukrainian forces potentially targeting infrastructure within Russian-controlled territory. The lack of immediate casualty reports is positive but needs confirmation as the situation develops.

2. Extensive Drone Activity (Confirmed, CRITICAL ESCALATION):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Provides a highly detailed breakdown of drone movements across Ukraine, indicating a massive and widespread drone attack:
     • 7 drones passing Vysokopillya towards Kazanka.
     • 1 drone passing Kropyvnytskyi towards Mykolaiv region.
     • 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriya.
     • 1 drone approaching Dnipro city from the east.
     • 5 drones near Lozova, Kharkiv region, heading towards Poltava region.
     • 2 drones west of Kharkiv city.
     • 2 drones moving from Kharkiv region to Poltava region.
     • 2 drones south of Myrhorod, heading west.
     • 3 drones in the north of Poltava region, heading south.
     • 1 drone heading towards/through Oleksandriya.
     • 1 drone from Poltava region flying towards Cherkasy.
     • 1 drone passing Obukhiv, heading west.
     • 1 drone north of Brovary, heading west.
     • 2 drones in the north of Kyiv region, moving into Zhytomyr region.
     • 2 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn.
     • 1 drone heading towards/through Chernihiv.
     • 3 drones in the north of Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
   • Assessment: This confirms the extreme escalation of the drone attack, now affecting a vast area of Ukraine. The sheer number of drones and their diverse flight paths indicate a highly coordinated and multi-pronged assault aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. The detailed tracking by Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provides crucial real-time intelligence for targeting air defense assets.

3. Guided Bomb Launches (Confirmed):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk region.
   • РБК-Україна: Confirms the report of guided bomb launches in Donetsk region.
   • Assessment: This adds another layer of threat to the ongoing situation, with Russian forces employing air-launched guided munitions in addition to the widespread drone attacks. This increases the risk to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure in the Donetsk region.

4. Sumy Drone Strike on Parking Lot (Confirmed):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports a "Shahed" drone hitting a parking lot in a residential area of Sumy. Mayor Artem Kobzar reports damage to many cars and windows blown out in apartment buildings. Emergency services are on-site. Provides video footage showing the aftermath of the strike, with burning cars and significant damage.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Confirmed a shahed hitting in Sumy, and reported damage, specialists, and medics at the site.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Also reports the drone strike on the parking lot in Sumy.
   • ASTRA: Reports the same incident, confirming damage to 10 cars.
   • Assessment: This confirms a successful drone strike on a civilian target in Sumy, causing significant damage and highlighting the vulnerability of civilian areas to these attacks. The use of "Shahed" drones (Iranian-made) is consistent with previous reports.

5. Zhytomyr Drone Threat:

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Warns of the threat of attack UAVs in the Zhytomyr region, advising of possible air defense activity.
   • Assessment: Confirms previous reports of drones entering the region.

6. Miscellaneous:

   • Janus Putkonen, Alex Parker, and TASS: Provided irrelevant updates.
   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦: Provided footage that can be used for intelligence purposes.

Updated Situation

• MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (COUNTRY-WIDE, CRITICAL ESCALATION): The drone attack has escalated dramatically, with confirmed activity across numerous regions of Ukraine. The detailed tracking data from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok highlights the scale and complexity of the attack, posing a severe challenge to Ukrainian air defenses.
• KYIV UNDER DIRECT THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv remains the top priority, with multiple drones approaching the capital from various directions.
• CONFIRMED CIVILIAN TARGETING (SUMY): The successful drone strike on a parking lot in Sumy, causing significant damage and impacting a residential area, confirms the targeting of civilian infrastructure and the danger posed by these attacks.
• GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (DONETSK): The confirmed use of guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk region adds another dimension to the threat, increasing the risk to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING (DONETSK): The reported shelling of Shakhtyorskaya Square in Donetsk city indicates ongoing clashes in the region.

Updated Recommendations

1. DEFEND KYIV (EXTREME, OVERWHELMING PRIORITY): This remains the absolute top priority. The situation is critical.

   • Continue deploying all available air defense assets to protect Kyiv, prioritizing interception of drones based on the detailed tracking data from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok.
   • Maximize the use of early warning systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and mobile fire groups.
   • Maintain all civil defense protocols, urging citizens to remain in shelters.
   • Prepare for potential infrastructure damage and mass casualty events.

2. COUNTRY-WIDE AIR DEFENSE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Utilize the detailed tracking data from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok to allocate air defense assets across the country, prioritizing areas with confirmed drone activity.
   • Focus on intercepting drones before they reach populated areas or critical infrastructure.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts across all regions to maximize effectiveness.

3. ADDRESS SUMY STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide support to emergency services in Sumy responding to the drone strike.
   • Assess the damage and provide assistance to affected civilians.
   • Investigate the strike to gather intelligence on drone targeting and effectiveness.

4. DONETSK REGION (MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE POSTURE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a strong defensive posture in the Donetsk region, anticipating further guided bomb attacks.
   • Utilize air defense assets to counter the threat from tactical aviation.
   • Gather intelligence on the shelling of Shakhtyorskaya Square to assess the targeting and potential impact.

5. All Previous Recommendations: All recommendations from the previous reports remain valid, but are secondary to the immediate and critical defense of Kyiv and the nationwide drone threat. This includes updated recommendations from the previous two reports.

The situation has escalated dramatically with a massive, widespread drone attack across Ukraine, posing a severe challenge to air defenses. The direct threat to Kyiv remains the top priority, while the confirmed targeting of civilian areas in Sumy highlights the danger to the population. The use of guided bombs in Donetsk adds another layer of threat. Immediate and coordinated action is required to defend against these multiple threats.