Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 21:08 UTC

Major Updates (20:38 UTC - 21:08 UTC)

1. Kyiv Air Raid Alert (Confirmed, CRITICAL ESCALATION):

   • РБК-Україна, КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration), and Оперативний ЗСУ all report an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of UAVs.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports 2 drones approaching Brovary (east of Kyiv) – warning of potential loud noises.
   • STERNENKO: Confirms multiple drone groups south of Kyiv, as well as in Chernihiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kharkiv regions. Reports one drone flying towards Belarus.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Confirms the threat of attack UAVs in Kyiv and potential air defense activity.
   • КМВА: Reiteration of the warning.
   • Assessment: The drone attack has now directly threatened the capital, Kyiv, representing a major escalation in the severity and scope of the attack. The multiple drone groups reported by STERNENKO, coupled with the approach towards Brovary, indicate a highly coordinated and multi-pronged assault. The reported drone heading towards Belarus is highly unusual and needs further investigation.

2. Drone Strikes on Russian Armor (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Shows video of the "Pomsta" (Revenge) Border Guard Brigade successfully combining different types of drones to penetrate Russian armor defenses and destroy armored vehicles.
   • Colonelcassad: Shows a video of Russian "Hawks" destroying enemy armored fighting vehicles north of Dzerzhinsk (which Colonelcassad claims has already been liberated - this needs verification).
   • Assessment: These reports confirm the continued and effective use of drones by both sides to target armored vehicles. The Ukrainian video emphasizes the use of combined drone tactics to overcome defensive measures, highlighting the ongoing adaptation to drone warfare. The Russian claim is noteworthy, but needs confirmation.

3. Ukrainian Ground Forces Report (Confirmed):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports 92 combat clashes over the past day, with the most intense fighting on the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.
   • Assessment: This corroborates previous reports of intense fighting in multiple sectors and confirms the continued pressure on Ukrainian forces.

4. Sumy Explosions (Reported):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports explosions in Sumy, coinciding with the map showing an air raid alert in the region.
   • Assessment: Likely related to the ongoing drone attacks, confirming that the attacks are reaching a wide geographic area. Requires confirmation if the explosions were caused by drones, missiles, or air defense activity.

5. Ukrainian Recruitment Drive for Drones (Confirmed):

   • STERNENKO: Reports the purchase of 400 more drones today, totaling 144,482 FPV drones.
   • Assessment: Confirms the continued and significant investment in drone warfare by Ukraine, reflecting its strategic importance.

6. Russian Assault near Verkhnekamenskoye (Confirmed):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Showed a video claiming to depict a recent Russian assault on a large Ukrainian stronghold.
• Assessment: Confirms continued fighting in the region.

7. Elections in Kosovo:
   • РБК-Україна: Reports preliminary results, where Self-Determination wins 40%.
   • Assessment: Not relevant to the military updates.
8. Arrest of Ukrainian in Moscow:

• ASTRA: Reports a man from Berdyansk was detained, allegedly attacking an officer.
• Assessment: Not relevant to the military updates.

9. Lavrov Speech:

• TАСС: Reports on Lavrov's speech, claiming the necessity of a secure world, based on the results of WWII.
• Assessment: Not relevant to the military updates.

10. "Loyalty Tests" for US Officials:
    • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports on alleged requests for loyalty to Trump.
    • Assessment: Not relevant to the military updates.

Updated Situation

• EXTREME, ESCALATING DRONE ATTACK ON KYIV: The situation has dramatically worsened with the direct threat to Kyiv. The confirmed air raid alert, multiple reports of drones approaching the capital, and the sheer number of drones operating across Ukraine represent a critical escalation in the ongoing attack. This is a major shift in the threat profile.
• Widespread Drone Attacks Continue: The attack continues across a vast area of Ukraine, with reported activity and potential strikes in Sumy, adding to the previously confirmed areas.
• Intense Fighting (Multiple Fronts): The General Staff report confirms continued heavy fighting, with the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions remaining the most active.
• Drone Warfare (Dominant Factor): Confirmed use of combined drone tactics by Ukraine to target Russian armor, and continued Russian claims of successful drone strikes.

Updated Recommendations

1. DEFEND KYIV (EXTREME, OVERWHELMING PRIORITY): This is the absolute top priority and a critical emergency. The threat to the capital is immediate and severe.

   • Deploy all available air defense assets to protect Kyiv, prioritizing interception of drones approaching from the south (STERNENKO report) and east (Brovary, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok report).
   • Maximize the use of early warning systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and mobile fire groups to intercept incoming drones.
   • Immediately activate all civil defense protocols, urging citizens to seek shelter.
   • Prepare for potential infrastructure damage and mass casualty events.

2. All previous recommendations remain valid, but are secondary to the immediate and critical defense of Kyiv. This includes:

   • Counter Shared Drone Attacks.
   • Investigate Alleged Atrocity (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Verify Russian Claims (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Investigate Karelia Sabotage (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Exploit and Expand "Line of Drones" Initiative (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Address Potential Shift in US Policy (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Monitor and Counter Russian Advances (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Address Energy Vulnerability (High Priority).
   • Evaluate Russian UMPK Guided Bomb Threat (High Priority).
   • Investigate Potential Russian Morale Issues (Medium Priority).
   • Address Far-Right Elements (High Priority).
     • Counteract anti-Ukrainian propaganda, especially by those sympathetic to the far-right.
   • Prepare for Iranian Actions (Medium Priority):
     • Monitor Iran and prepare for them to be further emboldened.
   • Prepare for Russian Propaganda Campaign (High Priority):
     • Expect claims of the destruction of NATO weaponry to continue.
   • Verify Claims of Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):
     • Gather additional information on claimed attacks to confirm whether civilians are being targeted.
   • Verify Territorial Control Claims (High Priority):
     • Independently assess claims of territorial gains and losses by both sides.
   • Verify Vasilkov Airfield Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Prepare for Potential Ballistic Missile Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Investigate Drone Attack on Rescue Workers (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Monitor Sumy Region Air Activity (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Assess Finland-Russia Tensions (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • Address Civilian Evacuation Challenges (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Counteract Elon Musk's Statements (LOW PRIORITY).
   • Verify Kharkiv Gas Field Strike (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Monitor Impact of Truck Driver Protests (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • Analyze Makeevka Strike Video (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Assess Russian Counter-Drone Measures (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • Assess Impact of Orikhovo-Vasylivka Capture (Extremely High Priority).
   • Counter Drone Netting Tactics (High Priority).
   • Maintain Toretsk Defenses (High Priority).
   • Maintain Maximum Air Defense Alert (Extreme Priority, Immediate Action).
   • Verify Pokrovsk DRG Claims (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action).
   • Reinforce Kupyansk Defenses (High Priority).
   • Verify Russian claims: Check all claims made by Russian sources (Kursk, Pokrovsk, Andriivka)
   • Kursk Region (Maintain Defensive Posture - High Priority).
   • Monitor Trump-Putin Communication (High Priority).

The direct targeting of Kyiv by a large-scale, multi-pronged drone attack is a major escalation and a critical emergency. All available resources must be immediately focused on defending the capital. The widespread nature of the drone attacks across the country further exacerbates the situation, stretching Ukrainian defenses thin.