Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 20:38 UTC

Major Updates (20:08 UTC - 20:38 UTC)

1. Continued and Expanding Shahed Drone Attacks (Confirmed, EXTREME PRIORITY, Expanding Threat):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports new threats:
     • Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of attack UAVs.
     • Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts: Threat of attack UAVs.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Provides detailed tracking information:
     • 2 drones from the left bank towards Berislav district.
     • 3 drones flying past Marganets in a northwesterly direction.
     • 4 drones in the east of Dnipropetrovsk region.
     • 1 drone north of Samara, heading west.
     • 1 drone flew past Oleksandriia, heading south.
     • 2 drones near Kharkiv, heading west.
     • 2 drones west of Poltava, heading west.
     • 1 drone north of Bila Tserkva, heading west.
     • 2 drones from Cherkasy region entering Bila Tserkva district of Kyiv region.
     • 3 drones flying past Nizhyn, heading west.
     • 2 drones from Chernihiv region entering the north of Kyiv region.
     • 6 drones from Sumy region entering Poltava region.
     • 4 drones in the east of Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Confirms air defense activity in Kyiv region ("На Київщині працює ППО").
   • Assessment: The drone attack continues to escalate, spreading to new regions (Kirovohrad, Kherson, Mykolaiv) and encompassing a vast area of Ukraine. The detailed tracking information from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok confirms multiple waves and diverse trajectories, indicating a highly coordinated and complex attack. Air defenses are active, but the sheer number of drones presents a significant challenge.

2. Ukrainian FPV Drone Strikes (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Shows a video of the 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade using FPV drones to attack Russian soldiers.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued Ukrainian use of FPV drones for targeted strikes, highlighting their effectiveness against personnel.

3. Russian Claims of Gains and AFU Casualties (Disputed, Requires Verification):

   • MoD Russia: Claims:
     • Liberation of Orekhovo-Vasilevka (Donetsk People's Republic) by the "Yug" Group of Forces.
     • Continued operation to "neutralise AFU formations" in Kursk region, claiming over 320 Ukrainian troops killed, along with significant equipment losses (5 tanks, 5 IFVs including 1 Bradley, 3 APCs, 16 armored fighting vehicles, 26 motor vehicles, 4 artillery guns, 2 mortars, 1 Israeli-made RADA radar, 1 UAV command post, 2 ammunition depots).
   • Assessment: These claims are highly suspect and require urgent independent verification. The claimed Ukrainian losses in Kursk are extremely high and inconsistent with other reporting. The claimed liberation of Orekhovo-Vasilevka needs to be confirmed with geospatial intelligence.

4. Rybars Digest (Mixed, Informative):

• Rybars: Reports the fight for Yampolovka, the need to introduce a thesis about mythical rare-earth reserves in Ukraine, on USAID grants for the authorities of Moldova, claims of an increase in military activity of the US allies in the Asia-Pacific.
• Assesment: This provides context, but it is mostly focused on geopolitical events.

5. Coal shortage in Kuzbass, Russia (Confirmed, Indirect Impact):

• ASTRA: Shows complaints about a lack of coal to heat houses.
• Assessment: Highlights internal problems in Russia, due to sanctions, specifically on the energy supply chain.

6. Pope's Breathing Problems:

• РБК-Україна: Reports the Pope struggling to complete the sermon.
• Assessment: Not relevant to military updates.

Updated Situation

• OVERWHELMING PRIORITY: Widespread, Expanding Shahed Drone Attacks: The multi-pronged, multi-wave drone attack targeting numerous regions, including now Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Mykolaiv, is the dominant and most critical threat. The attack is larger and more complex than previously assessed.
• Disputed Russian Claims: The claimed liberation of Orekhovo-Vasilevka and the extremely high claimed Ukrainian casualties in Kursk require immediate and thorough investigation. These claims are likely exaggerated or false.
• Intensified Fighting (Multiple Fronts): Remains unchanged from the previous report, with the General Staff report highlighting Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kursk.
• Drone Warfare (Dominant Factor): Remains unchanged. Confirmed Ukrainian use of FPV drones. Russia continues counter-drone measures.
• Air Attacks (Ongoing Threat): Remains unchanged.
• Ballistic missile threat: Was confirmed and lifted.
• Alleged Atrocities in Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• Baltic energy situation: Confirmed disconnection from the Russian grid.
• Syria-Israel Conflict: Confirmed Israeli military activity and airstrikes in occupied Syrian territories.
• Ukrainian "Line of Drones": Confirmed strategic initiative to integrate drones and infantry.
• Vasilkov Airfield Strike: Claimed Russian strike requires urgent verification.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Confirmed Russian assault on a Ukrainian strongpoint.
• Kursk Region:
  • Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides claim success in the region.
  • One source claims a planned offensive by Ukraine was stopped.
  • Another source claims success by Ukrainian drones.
• Kharkiv Gas Field Strike (NEW, Requires Verification): Claimed attack on a Burisma-linked gas field needs immediate investigation.
• Truck Driver Protests (NEW, Indirect Impact): Confirmed protests in Russia due to EW interference, potentially disrupting logistics.
• Makeevka Strike: Claims of a new strike.

Updated Recommendations

1. COUNTER SHARED DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME, OVERWHELMING PRIORITY): This is the absolute highest priority. The situation has significantly deteriorated.

   • Deploy all available air defense assets, prioritizing interception based on the updated trajectories provided by Nikolaevskiy Vanyok and the Ukrainian Air Force:
     • Focus on protecting Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, and other major population centers.
     • Coordinate air defense efforts across all threatened regions, including Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
     • Maximize use of early warning systems and electronic warfare capabilities to disrupt drone guidance systems.
     • Consider requesting immediate assistance from international partners for additional air defense systems and support.
   • Increase the number of mobile fire groups.

2. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED ATROCITY (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains the second-highest overall priority, but the immediate drone threat takes precedence.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Immediately dispatch intelligence assets to verify or refute the claimed liberation of Orekhovo-Vasilevka and the reported Ukrainian casualties in Kursk. Use geospatial intelligence, HUMINT, and SIGINT.

4. All other recommendations from the previous report remain valid, but are secondary to the immediate drone threat and the need to verify Russian claims. This includes:

   • Investigate Karelia Sabotage (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Exploit and Expand "Line of Drones" Initiative (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Address Potential Shift in US Policy (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Monitor and Counter Russian Advances (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Address Energy Vulnerability (High Priority).
   • Evaluate Russian UMPK Guided Bomb Threat (High Priority).
   • Investigate Potential Russian Morale Issues (Medium Priority).
   • Address Far-Right Elements (High Priority).
     • Counteract anti-Ukrainian propaganda, especially by those sympathetic to the far-right.
   • Prepare for Iranian Actions (Medium Priority):
     • Monitor Iran and prepare for them to be further emboldened.
   • Prepare for Russian Propaganda Campaign (High Priority):
     • Expect claims of the destruction of NATO weaponry to continue.
   • Verify Claims of Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):
     • Gather additional information on claimed attacks to confirm whether civilians are being targeted.
   • Verify Territorial Control Claims (High Priority):
     • Independently assess claims of territorial gains and losses by both sides.
   • Verify Vasilkov Airfield Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • Prepare for Potential Ballistic Missile Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Investigate Drone Attack on Rescue Workers (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Monitor Sumy Region Air Activity (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Assess Finland-Russia Tensions (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • Address Civilian Evacuation Challenges (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Counteract Elon Musk's Statements (LOW PRIORITY).
   • Verify Kharkiv Gas Field Strike (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Monitor Impact of Truck Driver Protests (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • Analyze Makeevka Strike Video (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • Assess Russian Counter-Drone Measures (MEDIUM PRIORITY).

The situation has significantly worsened due to the scale and complexity of the ongoing Shahed drone attacks. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation requiring immediate, coordinated, and decisive action to protect Ukrainian airspace and critical infrastructure. Verifying the Russian claims is also critical to understand the true state of the battlefield.