Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 20:08 UTC

Major Updates (19:38 UTC - 20:08 UTC)

1. Shahed Drone Movements (Confirmed, HIGH PRIORITY, Expanded Threat):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Provides significantly updated information on Shahed drone movements, expanding the areas under threat:
     • Northern, southern, and central Sumy region, heading southwest.
     • Poltava region, heading west.
     • Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
     • Kharkiv region, heading west.
     • NEW: Kyiv region, heading west towards Bila Tserkva.
     • NEW: Cherkasy region, heading south and in the vicinity of Kremenchuk.
     • Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, threat of reconnaissance and attack UAVs.
   • Assessment: This confirms a major, multi-pronged drone attack across a wide swath of Ukraine. The addition of Kyiv and Cherkasy regions, along with the continued threats to Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, indicates a significantly escalated and widespread attack. The movement towards Bila Tserkva is particularly concerning due to its proximity to Kyiv.

2. Sumi Region Air Attacks (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports further launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in the Sumy region.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued and potentially intensified air activity in the Sumy region, using guided bombs.

3. Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Shows a video of the 427th Separate Assault Battalion "Rarog" destroying statues and apparently, Russian soldiers with drones in the Donbas region.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued Ukrainian use of drones for targeted strikes. The destruction of "statues of Russian soldiers" is likely intended as a propaganda message.

4. Chasiv Yar Counter-Drone Measures (Confirmed):

   • Colonelcassad: Shows a video of Russian forces using netting to protect roads from drones near Chasiv Yar.
   • Assessment: This confirms the significant threat posed by drones and Russian efforts to mitigate it. The use of netting is a relatively low-tech but potentially effective countermeasure against FPV drones.

5. Kupyansk Direction Drone Strike (Confirmed):

   • Два майора: Shows a video of a Russian drone strike in the Kupyansk direction, from the 347th Regiment.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the Russian use of drones on the battlefield.

6. Ukrainian General Staff Report (Confirmed):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ: Reports 92 combat clashes, 2 missile strikes, 58 airstrikes (including 86 guided bombs), 1086 kamikaze drone strikes, and 4429 artillery strikes by Russian forces. Lists specific areas of combat:
     • Kharkiv: 3 attacks repelled.
     • Kupyansk: 7 attacks, 6 repelled.
     • Lyman: 10 attacks.
     • Kramatorsk: 2 attacks ongoing near Chasiv Yar.
     • Toretsk: 12 attacks, 2 ongoing.
     • Pokrovsk: 31 attacks, 2 ongoing. Claims 114 Russian soldiers killed, 97 wounded, 1 BTR, 7 cars, 5 motorcycles, 4 UAVs destroyed, 1 tank and 2 guns damaged.
     • Novopavlivsk: 8 attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil.
     • Siversk, Hulyaipole, Prydniprovsk, and Orikhiv: No offensive actions, but airstrikes reported.
     • Kursk: 17 attacks repelled, 1 ongoing. 23 airstrikes, 37 guided bombs, 394 artillery strikes.
   • Assessment: This provides a comprehensive overview of the day's fighting, confirming intense combat across multiple fronts. The claimed Russian casualties and equipment losses in the Pokrovsk direction are significant, if true. The report highlights the intensity of the fighting, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kursk directions. The large number of drone strikes and guided bomb attacks is noteworthy.

7. Air raid sirens: Air raid sirens sounded in the Zaporizhia region.

Updated Situation

• EXTREME PRIORITY: Widespread Shahed Drone Attacks: The multi-pronged drone attack targeting numerous regions, including Kyiv, is the most immediate and critical threat.
• Alleged Atrocities in Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged. Remains the highest overall priority for investigation.
• Intensified Fighting (Multiple Fronts): Confirmed by the General Staff report, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kursk directions.
• Drone Warfare (Dominant Factor): Continues to be a major aspect of the conflict, with confirmed use by both sides. Russia is actively deploying countermeasures (netting) near Chasiv Yar.
• Air Attacks (Ongoing Threat): Confirmed guided bomb attacks in the Sumy region.
• Ballistic missile threat: Was confirmed, then lifted, in multiple regions.
• Baltic energy situation: Confirmed disconnection from the Russian grid.
• Syria-Israel Conflict: Confirmed Israeli military activity and airstrikes in occupied Syrian territories.
• Ukrainian "Line of Drones": Confirmed strategic initiative to integrate drones and infantry.
• Vasilkov Airfield Strike: Claimed Russian strike requires urgent verification.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Confirmed Russian assault on a Ukrainian strongpoint.
• Kursk Region:
  • Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides claim success in the region.
  • One source claims a planned offensive by Ukraine was stopped.
  • Another source claims success by Ukrainian drones.
• Kharkiv Gas Field Strike (NEW, Requires Verification): Claimed attack on a Burisma-linked gas field needs immediate investigation.
• Truck Driver Protests (NEW, Indirect Impact): Confirmed protests in Russia due to EW interference, potentially disrupting logistics.
• Makeevka Strike: Claims of a new strike.

Updated Recommendations

1. COUNTER SHARED DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY): *This is now the highest immediate priority. Deploy all available air defense assets to intercept incoming Shahed drones. Prioritize targets based on reported trajectories:

   • Western movement from Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv.
   • Western movement in Poltava.
   • Southwestern movement towards Kyiv and Bila Tserkva.
   • Southward movement in Cherkasy and Kremenchuk.
   • Monitor Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk for reconnaissance and attack UAVs.
   • Coordinate with early warning systems to provide maximum response time.*

2. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED ATROCITY (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged. Second-highest overall priority.

3. Investigate Karelia Sabotage (HIGH PRIORITY): Unchanged.

4. Exploit and Expand "Line of Drones" Initiative (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged.

5. Address Potential Shift in US Policy (HIGH PRIORITY): Unchanged.

6. Monitor and Counter Russian Advances (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged, with increased focus on areas identified in the General Staff report (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kursk).

7. Address Energy Vulnerability (High Priority): Unchanged.

8. Evaluate Russian UMPK Guided Bomb Threat (High Priority): Unchanged.

9. Investigate Potential Russian Morale Issues (Medium Priority): Unchanged.

10. Address Far-Right Elements (High Priority):

    • Counteract anti-Ukrainian propaganda, especially by those sympathetic to the far-right.

11. Prepare for Iranian Actions (Medium Priority):

    • Monitor Iran and prepare for them to be further emboldened.

12. Prepare for Russian Propaganda Campaign (High Priority):

    • Expect claims of the destruction of NATO weaponry to continue.

13. Verify Claims of Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):

    • Gather additional information on claimed attacks to confirm whether civilians are being targeted.

14. Verify Territorial Control Claims (High Priority):

    • Independently assess claims of territorial gains and losses by both sides.

15. Verify Vasilkov Airfield Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY): Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported strike. If confirmed, assess the damage and impact on Ukrainian air capabilities.

16. Prepare for Potential Ballistic Missile Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY): Maintain maximum air defense alert in threatened regions. Ensure early warning systems are functioning optimally. Disperse critical assets if possible.

17. Investigate Drone Attack on Rescue Workers (HIGH PRIORITY): Gather evidence and verify the reported attack on rescue workers in the Pokrovsk region. If confirmed, document the incident and prepare for potential legal and diplomatic responses.

18. Monitor Sumy Region Air Activity (HIGH PRIORITY): Increase surveillance and air defense readiness in the Sumy region. Be prepared for potential attacks on critical infrastructure and military targets. This includes monitoring for both guided bomb attacks and drone activity.

19. Assess Finland-Russia Tensions (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Monitor the situation in the Baltic Sea region. Gather intelligence on potential Russian sabotage activities targeting energy infrastructure.

20. Address Civilian Evacuation Challenges (HIGH PRIORITY): Develop and implement strategies to improve civilian evacuation efforts, addressing concerns about safety, security, and property. This includes improved communication, logistical support, and potentially dedicated evacuation corridors.

21. Counteract Elon Musk's Statements (LOW PRIORITY): Monitor the impact of Musk's statements on public opinion and be prepared to counter any misinformation or disinformation campaigns that may arise.

22. Verify Kharkiv Gas Field Strike (HIGH PRIORITY): Use all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, HUMINT, SIGINT) to confirm or refute the reported attack. If confirmed, assess the damage and impact on gas production and supply. Investigate potential links to political motivations.

23. Monitor Impact of Truck Driver Protests (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Assess the extent and impact of the truck driver protests in Russia. Monitor for any disruptions to supply chains, particularly those related to military logistics. Investigate the effectiveness of Russian EW systems and any potential adjustments made to minimize interference with civilian infrastructure.

24. Analyze Makeevka Strike Video (HIGH PRIORITY): Geolocate and verify the video claiming to show the Makeevka strike. Determine if it was a direct hit or the result of intercepted missile debris. Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to confirm casualties and assess the accuracy of official Russian statements.

25. Assess Russian Counter-Drone Measures (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Evaluate the effectiveness of the netting deployed near Chasiv Yar. Gather intelligence on the extent of its deployment and any impact on Ukrainian drone operations.

The widespread Shahed drone attacks are the most immediate threat, requiring urgent action. The continued intensity of fighting across multiple fronts, as confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff, highlights the need for sustained vigilance and resource allocation. The potential for escalation and the ongoing humanitarian crisis require continuous monitoring and adaptation. The alleged atrocity in Kursk remains a very high overall priority.