Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since 14:08 UTC)

1. Pokrovsk Resident Interview (Confirmed):

   • Kotsnews: Reports an interview with a resident of Pokrovsk who identifies as Russian despite having a Ukrainian passport. The resident expresses a desire for peace and implies a preference for Russian control.
   • Assessment: This highlights divided loyalties within the population in contested areas. This could influence strategic decisions by requiring humanitarian support, increased security measures, and nuanced public communication strategies. It could also indicate the presence of pro-Russian elements who might assist invading forces.

2. New Criminal Case Against Novgorod Activist (Confirmed):

   • Север.Реалии: Reports a new criminal case against Novgorod activist Andrei Staroverov for disrespecting the court.
   • Assessment: This is not directly relevant to military operations, but it reveals further tensions and potential division within Russia.

3. Ukrainian Serviceman on Conscription Concerns (Confirmed):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦: Features an interview with a Ukrainian serviceman from the 93rd Brigade who expresses concern about public fear of conscription and alleges that recruitment personnel are prioritizing forced recruitment over deploying capable individuals.
   • Assessment: This reflects a potential issue with public sentiment regarding military conscription. This could impact the effectiveness of mobilization efforts and the availability of personnel. Addressing these concerns is critical for maintaining public trust and ensuring adequate manpower.

4. Philosophical Discussion on Electronic Warfare (Confirmed):

   • Старше Эдды: Presents a philosophical discussion on the limitations of electronic warfare (EW), emphasizing the importance of traditional skills and resilience.
   • Assessment: The message emphasizes the importance of relying on soldiers with solid foundations and training, as relying completely on technology and specifically, EW, would be a mistake.

5. Book Review by Military Correspondent (Confirmed):

   • Военкор Котенок: Reviews a book by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok, focusing on experiences in Donbas, Chechnya, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
   • Assessment: The review emphasizes the importance of remembering and recording the histories of people and of the war.

6. Invictus Games Participation (Confirmed):

   • Multiple sources (including Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) report on the official start of the Invictus Games in Canada, highlighting the participation of Ukrainian veterans, including those from Kharkiv.
   • Assessment: This highlights the human cost of the war and the importance of supporting veterans. Participation in the Games can boost morale and demonstrate resilience.

7. Zelenskyy on Ending the War and Negotiations (Confirmed):

• Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports that President Zelenskyy believes there are "all possibilities" to end the war in 2025, but would require support from allies and security guarantees.
• Assessment: This does not indicate an immediate willingness to negotiate without preconditions. It emphasizes the reliance on external support and the need for strong guarantees.

8. Air Strikes on Sumy Region (Confirmed):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports launches of guided aerial bombs in the Sumy region.
   • Assessment: This confirms ongoing air attacks and the threat to the region. Air defenses should remain on high alert.

9. FSB Operations in Dzerzhynsk (Confirmed):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Reports that FSB forces have entered "liberated" Dzerzhynsk to search for and eliminate Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) and spotters.
   • Assessment: This reinforces earlier reports of FSB activity in the area. It suggests ongoing efforts to secure control and eliminate resistance.

10. Gaza Ceasefire and Israeli Troop Withdrawal (Confirmed):

    • Multiple sources (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ) report that Israel has agreed to withdraw troops from the Netzarim Corridor in Gaza as part of a ceasefire agreement.
    • Assessment: This is not directly related to the situation in Ukraine, but demonstrates conflict and negotiation in other areas.

11. Criticism of Syrsky and Zaluzhny (Confirmed):

    • Colonelcassad: Shares a social media post criticizing the appointment of General Syrsky as Commander-in-Chief and claiming that both Syrsky and Zaluzhny "destroyed the Ukrainian military dream."
    • Assessment: This confirms tensions.

12. EU-US Relations Uncertainty (Confirmed):

• ТАСС: Reports that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, says that there is "growing uncertainty" in the relationship between the United States and the European Union, and that Brussels is prepared for challenges.
• Assessment: This suggests a growing tension between these two entities.

13. Exhumation of Volyn Tragedy Victims (Confirmed):

    • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦: Reports that Ukraine will begin the exhumation of victims of the Volyn tragedy in the spring of this year.
    • Assessment: This suggests an agreement between Ukraine and Poland is occuring and may indicate strong diplomatic ties.

14. "Skala" Unit Claims Clearing of Kotlyne (Confirmed):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: The "Skala" assault unit, recently expanded to a regiment, claims to have completely cleared the village of Kotlyne near Pokrovsk. The video reportedly shows the unit's operations, including the use of Bradley and M113 vehicles.
    • Assessment: If confirmed, this represents a local Ukrainian success and a setback for Russian forces in the area. The video provides evidence of Ukrainian counter-offensive capabilities.

15. Russian Drone Operator Fundraising (Confirmed):

    • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦: Appeals for donations for a Russian drone operator.
    • Assessment: This suggests a fundraising drive for resources.

16. Russian Claims of Drone and Artillery Strikes (Confirmed):

    • Два майора: Reports Russian airstrikes in Lebedevka (Kursk region) and Melovoye (Kharkiv region) using FAB bombs with UMPK modules.
    • Assessment: This confirms ongoing Russian air operations in these areas. Ukrainian air defenses should remain on high alert.

17. Propaganda Claim of Zelenskyy Buying Hitler's Residence (Confirmed, Disinformation):

    • Multiple sources (ASTRA, and others) report on a claim circulating in Russian media that President Zelenskyy bought Hitler's "Eagle's Nest" residence. This claim is based on a fabricated German news source and a flawed "contract."
    • Assessment: This is a clear example of disinformation and propaganda aimed at discrediting Zelenskyy and Ukraine. It should be actively countered.

18. Ukrainian General Staff Report (Confirmed):

• Генеральний штаб ЗСУ: Provides an operational update, reporting 64 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with a focus on the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions. Reports artillery shelling of border areas and details specific engagements on various fronts. * Assessment: This confirms ongoing intense fighting across multiple fronts, with a particular emphasis on the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.

19. Baltic States Synchronization with EU Energy Network (Confirmed):

    • РБК-Україна: The Baltic states have been connected to the EU energy grid.
    • Assessment: This is a very important step for the energy security of the Baltic countries, and a major reduction of their dependence on Russia.

20. Russian Military Correspondent Reports on Dnipropetrovsk Direction (Confirmed):

    • Военкор Котенок: Reports on Russian advances in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, claiming the capture of Uspenivka and fighting near Novooleksandrivka and other settlements.
    • Assessment: This requires independent verification. The reported advances, if confirmed, would represent a shift in the front lines. The mention of fighting near the Dnipropetrovsk region border is significant.

21. Zelenskyy on Putin's Goals (Confirmed):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports that Zelensky believes Putin's goals include restoring the power of the Russian Empire.
• Assessment: This highlights the ideological underpinnings of the conflict and the perceived threat from Russia.

22. Donations for the Ukrainian Military (Confirmed):

• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦: A message asks for people to donate to the Ukrainian military.
• Assessment: This suggests a crowd-funding drive to help Ukraine purchase weaponry.

23. Russian Soldier on Zaporizhzhia Direction (Confirmed):

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Discusses concerns on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• Assessment: This shows that the Russian forces are concerned over the defense of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and that they see the Ukrainian military as inhumane, due to them fighting on the front.

24. Russian Commander "Navi" Interview (Confirmed):

• Воин DV: Features an interview with "Navi," a Russian assault platoon commander, discussing his experiences in the Kherson, Shevchenko, Razdolnoye, and Shakhtyorskoye areas.
• Assessment: This provides a first-hand account of combat experiences, but should be viewed with awareness of potential bias. The reported successful defense against a Ukrainian counterattack, if accurate, highlights effective Russian tactics.

25. FAB Bomb Impact (Confirmed):

• Два майора: Shows a video of the impact of a FAB bomb.
• Assessment: This highlights the destructive capabilities of the Russian Air Force.

26. Fighting on Pokrovsk Direction, Left Flank (Confirmed):

• Военкор Котенок: Reports that Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance operations near Kotlyno, Zverevo, and Pisky.
• Assessment: This shows that Ukrainian forces are attempting to find out how the enemy is distributed in these areas.

Updated Situation

• Intensified Fighting on Multiple Fronts, Especially Pokrovsk and Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY): The Ukrainian General Staff reports 64 combat clashes, with a focus on these two directions. Conflicting reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources regarding control of Kotlyne near Pokrovsk highlight the intensity of the fighting and the contested nature of the area. The claimed Ukrainian clearing of Kotlyne, if confirmed, is a significant development. The reported Russian advances in the Dnipropetrovsk direction also require verification.
• Continued Air and Missile Threats (High Priority): Reports of guided aerial bomb launches in the Sumy region underscore the persistent threat of air attacks.
• Escalating Drone Warfare (High Priority): Drone warfare remains a central feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, attack, and counter-drone operations.
• Information Warfare and Propaganda (High Priority): The fabricated claim about Zelenskyy buying Hitler's residence is a clear example of disinformation. Conflicting reports and claims from both sides necessitate careful verification and analysis.
• Focus on Logistics and Supply Lines (High Priority): The fighting near key roads and settlements (e.g., Kotlyne, Uspenivka) highlights the importance of controlling logistical routes.
• Internal Tensions within Ukraine (Medium Priority): Concerns about conscription and internal criticism of military leadership, while not directly impacting battlefield operations at this moment, could have long-term implications for morale and unity.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY Verify and Respond to Claims Regarding Kotlyne (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Gather independent intelligence to confirm the extent of Ukrainian control in Kotlyne and the reported Russian losses. The conflicting reports require immediate clarification.
   • If Ukrainian control is confirmed, reinforce the position and prepare for potential Russian counterattacks.
   • Assess the impact on the overall situation in the Pokrovsk direction.

2. Verify Russian Advances in Dnipropetrovsk Direction (High Priority):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances near Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, and other settlements.
   • Assess the implications for the defense of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

3. Maintain EXTREME ALERT for Air and Missile Threats (High Priority):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense readiness in areas under threat, particularly Sumy and other regions targeted by recent strikes.

4. Address Concerns About Conscription and Recruitment (Medium Priority):

   • Investigate allegations of forced recruitment and underutilization of capable personnel.
   • Develop and implement measures to improve public trust and ensure a fair and transparent mobilization process.

5. Counter Disinformation and Propaganda (High Priority):

   • Actively debunk false claims, such as the fabricated story about Zelenskyy buying Hitler's residence.
   • Promote accurate information and highlight Ukrainian successes.

6. Reinforce Logistical Routes (High Priority):

   • Prioritize the security of key roads and settlements that are critical for supply lines and troop movements.
   • Develop contingency plans for operating with disrupted logistics.

7. Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (High Priority):

   • Continue countering narratives and highlighting losses.
   • Specifically address claims regarding Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).

8. Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):

• Continue efforts.

9. Address Espionage Concerns (High Priority):
   • Continue efforts.
10. Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (High Priority):
    • Continue efforts.
11. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (High Priority):
    • Continue efforts.
12. Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.
13. Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.
14. Maintain all previous recommendations, with updated priorities as noted.

The situation remains highly dynamic and characterized by intense fighting on multiple fronts, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions. Conflicting reports and claims highlight the importance of careful verification and analysis. The reported Ukrainian clearing of Kotlyne, if confirmed, represents a significant local success, but the overall situation remains volatile. The continued threat of air and missile attacks, along with the ongoing information warfare, requires constant vigilance and adaptation.