Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 14:08 UTC

Major Updates (Since 13:39 UTC)

1. Russian Drone Shot Down (Confirmed):

   • ТАСС: Russian FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopter in the Kharkiv region. The video shows the destruction. This confirms active counter-drone warfare in the region.

2. Russian Airstrike on Ukrainian Drone Control Point (Confirmed, High Priority):

   • Воин DV: Reports a Russian airstrike on a Ukrainian drone control point near Maryevka, close to Zaporizhzhia. Claims of destruction of a satellite communication station, an electronic warfare station, approximately 30 drones of various types, and around 20 Ukrainian personnel, including drone operators and specialists.
   • Assessment: This, if accurate, represents a significant blow to Ukrainian drone capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia region. The claimed casualties and destruction of equipment would severely hamper Ukrainian drone operations. Verification is crucial.

3. Russian Flag Incident in Toretsk (Confirmed):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports that Ukrainian forces prevented Russian forces from raising a Russian flag in Toretsk. Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery fire were used. Claims that a Ukrainian drone successfully knocked down a Russian flag that had been thrown onto a building. Video provided. This contradicts earlier reports of FSB activity and "filtration" in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), suggesting either a localized Ukrainian counterattack or ongoing contested control.
   • Assessment: The incident indicates continued fighting in the Toretsk area, and that Ukrainian forces retain the capability to conduct offensive actions, even in areas previously reported under Russian control.

4. Animated Map of Russian Strikes (Confirmed):

   • Colonelcassad: Presents an animated map of purported Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory on February 8-9, 2025. The map shows missile and drone strikes, flight paths, areas of impact, and areas of electronic warfare activity. This provides a visual overview of Russian targeting priorities.

5. Medical Supplies Delivered (Confirmed):

   • Басурин о главном: Reports the delivery of antimicrobial silver-coated cloths ("NANO-ASEPTICA") to the "Bars" volunteer detachment. Highlights the importance of these supplies for treating burns.

6. Strelkov on Peace Talks (Confirmed):

   • Стрелков Игорь Иванович: Comments on potential peace negotiations, expressing deep concern over Russian willingness to negotiate without achieving a significant military defeat of Ukraine. Believes Ukraine will stall until NATO is ready to provide more direct military aid.

7. Kamchatka Marines:

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Discussed a soldier of the 40th Guards Marine Brigade, with a story that is more for morale and propaganda.

8. Ground Forces Using Electronic Reporting (Confirmed):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ: Reports on the implementation of electronic reports through the "Army+" application in the Ukrainian Ground Forces. Provides statistics on adoption rates by different brigades. This indicates an ongoing effort to modernize and streamline administrative processes.

9. Ballistic Missile Threat (Reported, Unconfirmed):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Warns of a ballistic missile threat to Kyiv Oblast (excluding Kyiv city), Chernihiv, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
   • РБК-Україна: Confirms the same ballistic missile threat.
   • Assessment: The exclusion of Kyiv city suggests a targeting strategy aimed at surrounding areas, possibly to disrupt logistics or military movements. Verification is needed.

10. Fighting Near Russian Konopelka (Confirmed):

• Старше Эдды: While a Ukrainian soldier was killed in the direction of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, the Russian air force engaged Ukrainians in the area of Russkaya Konopelka.

11. Drones Spying in Germany (Confirmed):

• STERNENKO: Reports about the German drones as previous reports.

12. Power Disruption (Confirmed):

• Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports of power being cut and that the Kaliningrad region is now reliant on its own power stations.

13. Russian MoD on Drone Strikes (Confirmed):

    • MoD Russia: Reports that "Rubikon" Center drone operators continue to destroy Ukrainian armored vehicles in the Kursk direction. Video provided.

14. FPV Drone Operations on Zaporizhzhia Front (Confirmed):

    • Два майора: Reports on the use of FPV drones by Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front, highlighting their effectiveness against targets that are difficult to reach with artillery or infantry. Video provided.

15. FSB Operations in Dzerzhynsk (Confirmed):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports that FSB special forces are operating in Dzerzhynsk, targeting Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) and spotters. This reinforces earlier reports of FSB activity in the area, but the reported Ukrainian counterattack raises questions about the extent of Russian control.

16. High-Speed Target in Sumy Region (Reported, Unconfirmed):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports a high-speed target in the Sumy region, heading towards Poltava.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ: Confirms the same report.
    • Assessment: This could be a missile, a fast-moving drone, or potentially a false alarm. Immediate air defense activation is warranted.

17. Death Toll in Makeevka Rises (Confirmed):

    • WarGonzo: Reports that the death toll from the Ukrainian attack on Makeevka has risen to two.

18. Drone Chase and Destruction (Confirmed):

    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Video shows a Russian FPV drone chasing and destroying a Ukrainian buggy in the Kursk region. Confirms the continued use of FPV drones for interdiction and targeting of even small, mobile vehicles.

19. Guided Missile Towards Myrgorod (Reported):

• Николаевский Ванёк: A guided missile toward Myrgorod.

20. High-Speed Target on Poltava (Confirmed):

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: High-speed target in Poltava in the south-west direction.
• Оперативний ЗСУ: Confirms the same report.

21. Missle Intercepted (Confirmed):

• Николаевский Ванёк: The missile has been intercepted.

22. Tank Training (Confirmed):

• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Video of a Ukrainian tank battalion and one officer.

23. Review of a Book (Confirmed):

• Colonelcassad: A review of a book from a military blogger.

24. Zelenskyy on Ending the War (Confirmed):

    • РБК-Україна: Reports that President Zelenskyy believes there are "all possibilities" to end the war in 2025. He emphasizes the need for strength and decisive action in alliance with Europeans. This indicates a focus on achieving a favorable outcome, but does not suggest imminent peace negotiations.

25. Drone Attack on Building (Confirmed):

• АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Video of a drone strike on a building.

Updated Situation

• Intensified Drone Warfare Across Multiple Fronts (EXTREME PRIORITY): Drone warfare is escalating. The confirmed Russian airstrike on a Ukrainian drone control point near Zaporizhzhia, if the reported damage is accurate, represents a major success for Russia and a serious setback for Ukraine. FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides, for both reconnaissance and attack. The Russian use of FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopter and a buggy demonstrates the evolving tactics in this domain. Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian vehicles remain a critical concern.
• Continued Fighting and Contested Control in Toretsk Area (High Priority): The reported Ukrainian counterattack and prevention of Russian flag-raising in Toretsk, despite previous claims of FSB activity, indicate that control of the city (or parts of it) is actively contested. This requires reassessment of Russian control claims and potential for further fighting.
• Persistent Air and Missile Threats (High Priority): Reports of a high-speed target in the Sumy/Poltava region and a guided missile towards Myrgorod, along with previous ballistic missile warnings, highlight the continued and widespread threat of air and missile attacks. The animated map of Russian strikes provides a visualization of ongoing targeting priorities.
• Focus on Electronic Warfare and Counter-Drone Operations (High Priority): The confirmed Russian counter-drone strike and reported electronic warfare activity underscore the importance of these capabilities in the conflict.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. URGENTLY Verify and Respond to Claims of Ukrainian Drone Control Point Destruction (EXTREME PRIORITY):
   • Immediately gather independent intelligence to confirm the extent of damage and casualties at the reported drone control point near Maryevka.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian drone operations in the Zaporizhzhia region. If losses are as significant as reported, immediate steps are needed to reconstitute capabilities, potentially by relocating assets and personnel from other areas.
   • Develop contingency plans for operating with reduced drone capabilities in the region, including alternative reconnaissance methods.
2. Maintain EXTREME ALERT for Air and Missile Threats (High Priority): The reports of high-speed targets and potential ballistic missile launches require continued maximum readiness of air defense systems. Prioritize tracking and engagement of any identified threats.
3. Reassess Situation in Toretsk (High Priority):
   • Gather intelligence to determine the extent of Ukrainian and Russian control in Toretsk. The conflicting reports require clarification.
   • Adjust force posture and operational plans based on the verified situation.
4. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities (High Priority): The escalating drone warfare necessitates increased investment in counter-drone systems and training. Focus on both detection and interdiction capabilities.
5. Investigate and Respond to Reports of Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia (EXTREME PRIORITY):
   • Maintain urgent verification efforts.
   • Assess strategic implications if confirmed.
   • Develop contingency plans for potential escalation.
6. Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (High Priority):
   • Continue countering narratives and highlighting losses.
   • Specifically address claims regarding Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and the alleged horse unit.
7. Address Internal Challenges (Medium Priority):
   • Investigate mobilization tactics and public discontent.
   • Ensure adequate resources for troops.
8. Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):
   • Urgently investigate the reported drone attacks targeting civilian vehicles in the Melitopol-Vasylivka area. Determine the source of the attacks and the intent behind targeting civilians.
   • Implement measures to protect civilian vehicles in areas vulnerable to drone attacks. This could include increased patrols, electronic warfare countermeasures, or designated travel corridors.
   • Publicly condemn any deliberate targeting of civilians and prepare to raise this issue with international organizations.
9. Address Espionage Concerns (High Priority):
   • Collaborate with German authorities to investigate the reports of unidentified drones observing Ukrainian military training. Determine the origin of the drones and their purpose.
   • Enhance security measures at training facilities to prevent future surveillance.
10. Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (High Priority):

• Gather intelligence on the "filtration" operations being conducted by the FSB in Dzerzhynsk. Assess the impact on the local population and the potential for human rights abuses.

11. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (High Priority):
    • Maintain high alert for drone activity across all threatened regions, particularly Sumy, Chernihiv, and areas along the border.
    • Deploy counter-drone measures where available.
12. Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.
13. Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.
14. Maintain all previous recommendations, with updated priorities as noted.

The situation remains highly volatile and characterized by intense drone warfare, ongoing air and missile threats, and contested control in key areas. The potential loss of a major Ukrainian drone control point, if confirmed, would be a significant development requiring immediate response. The conflicting reports regarding Toretsk highlight the fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict on the ground.