Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 13:38 UTC
Major Updates (Since 13:08 UTC)
Ukrainian Air Force Report (Confirmed, High Priority):
Оперативний ЗСУ: Publishes the same report as seen previously from Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This confirms the information from a separate source.
Fighting Near Sudzha and Russian Konopelka (Confirmed):
Сливочный каприз: Claims of active combat operations near Sudzha, with a Ukrainian attack by mobile assault groups towards Russian Konopelka. Claims of successful defeat of the Ukrainian assault vehicles. The coordinates are provided.
Drone Attack on Vehicle (Confirmed):
Mash на Донбассе: Reports a Ukrainian drone chasing a car on the Melitopol-Vasylivka highway. The driver managed to avoid a direct hit. This indicates continued Ukrainian drone attacks targeting civilian vehicles, raising concerns about potential civilian casualties.
Drone Surveillance Over German Military Base (Confirmed):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports that unidentified drones are observing Ukrainian military training on Patriot air defense systems at a NATO military base in Germany. Claims that efforts to shoot down the drones, including with electronic warfare, have been unsuccessful. This reinforces previous reports on the matter.
РБК-Україна: Also confirms the report.
Details of the Kulinich Treason Case (Confirmed):
Оперативний ЗСУ: The Times published new details of Kulinich's work for Russia. The material states that the SBU obtained access to documents seized from a computer in the office of the Russian special services in Moscow, as well as during the search of the spy's apartment in Kyiv. Among other things, there are photos and videos of Kulinich resting abroad with the curator of the network of Russian spies in Ukraine, Volodymyr Sivkovych, as well as their correspondence. Documents confirm that Kulinich had access to classified defense information, making him a valuable FSB agent. In 2020-2021, he actually destroyed counterintelligence in Crimea.
Air Activity on the North-East Direction (Confirmed):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tactical aviation activity in the north-east.
New US Bomb (Confirmed):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Americans continue to modernize GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator aerial bombs. These bombs are designed to destroy deeply buried fortified targets and can theoretically penetrate to a depth of up to 60m. The modernization of the bomb is carried out by installing a "smart" detonation system (Large Penetrator Smart Fuze).
Unusual Russian Tactic Claim (Low Priority):
Два майора: Claims that a horse was officially obtained to battle the enemy.
Fighting near Sudzhansky District (Confirmed):
Kotsnews: Claims that dozens of destroyed Ukrainian military vehicles are in the Sudzhansky district, following combat.
Destruction of Gas and Condensate System in Vodyane (Confirmed):
Два майора: Confirms previous report on the destruction of a gas and condensate processing facility in Vodyane, Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian Air Force Formation (Confirmed):
Fighterbomber: A combat formation in the sky.
Air Alert in Zaporizhzhia Region (Confirmed):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Confirms an air alert.
New Death in Makeevka (Confirmed):
ТАСС: One of the victims of the Ukrainian shelling of the center of Makeevka, which occurred on February 8, died in the hospital.
Ballistic Missile Threat (Confirmed):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Confirms a ballistic missile threat from the east.
FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (Confirmed):
Colonelcassad: Reports FSB units operating in Dzerzhynsk, focusing on counter-DRG operations and "filtration." This reinforces earlier claims of Russian control over Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
Guided Bomb Launch (Confirmed):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tactical aviation is launching guided bombs on the Zaporizhzhia region.
Drone Attacks in Belgorod Region (Confirmed):
Два майора: Reports drone attacks on two settlements in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, resulting in one civilian injury. This confirms Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, targeting civilian infrastructure and causing casualties.
Fundraiser for a Battalion (Confirmed):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: A fundraiser is announced for the 140th separate reconnaissance battalion, which performs important tasks in the Kherson direction. The goal of the collection is UAH 500,000 to provide the military with the necessary equipment.
Guided Bomb Launches (Confirmed):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tactical aviation is launching guided bombs on the Kharkiv region.
Drone Spying (Confirmed):
Оперативний ЗСУ: Unknown drones were spying on the training of the Armed Forces on the Patriot air defense system at a military base in Germany.
Meeting in Lipetsk Oblast (Confirmed):
Игорь Артамонов: Several strategically important meetings were held this week.
Drone Activity (Confirmed):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: A drone in the North of Sumy, headed towards Chernihiv.
Updated Situation
Escalated and Broadened Air Threat Remains (EXTREME PRIORITY): The air threat persists, with multiple reports of KAB launches towards various regions (Kherson, Antonivka, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv), confirmed drone attacks on Sumy, and a ballistic missile threat from the east. Drone activity is reported across multiple regions, including Sumy, and possibly Chernihiv.
Intense Border Fighting (Kursk/Sumy Regions, High Priority): The intense fighting along the Kursk/Sumy border continues.
Continued Fighting in Donetsk Region (High Priority): FSB activity in Dzerzhynsk reinforces claims of ongoing operations and "filtration," signifying a focus on securing control.
Bilchenko Case Likely Closed (High Priority): Previous reports.
Energy Infrastructure Under Attack. Confirmed.
Espionage Activities (High Priority): Confirmed reports of unidentified drones observing Ukrainian military training at a NATO base in Germany raise serious concerns about potential espionage and operational security breaches.
Casualties and Civilian Impact (High Priority): The death of a civilian in Makeevka due to previous shelling, and the injury of a civilian in Belgorod due to a drone attack, underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Maintain EXTREME PRIORITY on Air Defense and Reconnaissance: The continued air threat, including ballistic missile warnings and guided bomb launches, requires maximum readiness and deployment of all available air defense assets. Prioritize reconnaissance to identify launch sites and potential targets.
Verify and Respond to Claims of Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain urgent verification efforts.
Assess strategic implications if confirmed.
Develop contingency plans for potential escalation.
Investigate Claim of Finnish Drones with Banned Payloads (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain urgency in the investigation.
Contact Finnish authorities.
Gather intelligence on potential use.
Prepare for international action if confirmed.
Counter New Ukrainian USV Tactic (High Priority): Previous.
Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (High Priority):
Continue countering narratives and highlighting losses.
Specifically address claims regarding Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and the alleged horse unit.
Address Internal Challenges (Medium Priority):
Investigate mobilization tactics and public discontent.
Ensure adequate resources for troops.
Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):
Urgently investigate the reported drone attacks targeting civilian vehicles in the Melitopol-Vasylivka area. Determine the source of the attacks and the intent behind targeting civilians.
Implement measures to protect civilian vehicles in areas vulnerable to drone attacks. This could include increased patrols, electronic warfare countermeasures, or designated travel corridors.
Publicly condemn any deliberate targeting of civilians and prepare to raise this issue with international organizations.
Address Espionage Concerns (High Priority):
Collaborate with German authorities to investigate the reports of unidentified drones observing Ukrainian military training. Determine the origin of the drones and their purpose.
Enhance security measures at training facilities to prevent future surveillance.
Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (High Priority):
Gather intelligence on the "filtration" operations being conducted by the FSB in Dzerzhynsk. Assess the impact on the local population and the potential for human rights abuses.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (High Priority):
Maintain high alert for drone activity across all threatened regions, particularly Sumy, Chernihiv, and areas along the border.
Deploy counter-drone measures where available.
Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.
Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.
Maintain all previous recommendations, with updated priorities as noted.
The situation continues to be extremely dynamic. The ongoing air threats, the escalating drone warfare, the confirmed attacks inside Russia, and the reported espionage activities all require constant monitoring and rapid response. The potential targeting of civilian vehicles by drones and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict remain significant concerns.
