Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 09:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 09:08 UTC)

1. Orikhovo-Vasylivka Confirmed Captured (Multiple Sources): The Russian Ministry of Defense, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка, and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны all confirm the capture of Orikhovo-Vasylivka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). This is now a confirmed significant shift in territorial control, reinforcing the earlier assessment. Maps presented by several sources provide a visual representation of the advance.

2. Continued Drone Warfare, Toretsk (Confirmed): Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Хижак" Brigade, along with adjacent units, is engaging Russian drones in Toretsk, emphasizing that Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Heavy fighting continues in the urban area. This confirms ongoing close-quarters combat and the use of drones in a contested urban environment.

3. Russian MoD Briefing (Confirmed): TASS reports on the latest Russian Ministry of Defense briefing. Key claims include:

   • Russian air defense systems shot down a HIMARS rocket and 90 Ukrainian drones.
   • Ukrainian losses in the "Center" group of forces' area of responsibility amounted to up to 580 military personnel and four armored fighting vehicles.
   • Russian forces struck a gas and oil industry facility supporting the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and military airfield infrastructure in 147 areas. These claims, while originating from a biased source, provide insight into Russian objectives and claimed successes. Independent verification is essential.

4. Netting on Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar Road (Confirmed): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russian forces have installed netting along a 2 km stretch of the road between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar to protect against FPV drone attacks. This is presented with images and a map. This is a significant tactical adaptation, highlighting the impact of drone warfare and Russian efforts to mitigate the threat.

5. Russian Drone Strikes, Damage Assessment (Confirmed): Kotsnews reports (with video) on the destruction of Ukrainian equipment (tank and armored personnel carrier) by Russian drones. This further reinforces the prevalence of drone warfare and the ongoing attrition of military hardware.

6. Derbent Attack Update (Confirmed): TASS reports that one of the individuals who attacked a police officer in Derbent is the son of the former head of the Tabasaran district of Dagestan. This is not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine but highlights potential internal security issues within Russia.

7. Peskov on Putin-Trump Communication (Reported): Север.Реалии, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and РБК-Україна report that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov could neither confirm nor deny reports of a phone call between Putin and Trump, citing multiple communication channels. This highlights the ongoing diplomatic (or potentially back-channel) activity between Russia and figures in the US.

8. Sakhalin Ship Grounding (Ongoing): STERNENKO reports on the grounding of the Chinese bulk carrier "Ang Yang-2" near Sakhalin Island, with a state of emergency declared. This incident, while not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, could have logistical implications.

9. Award Ceremony, Drone Emphasis (Confirmed): Воин DV reports on an awards ceremony for Russian soldiers (with video), where state awards were presented. The governor of the Sakhalin Oblast and the head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) delivered reconnaissance drones, electronic warfare equipment, and anti-drone guns to the units. This underlines the importance of technology in the conflict and efforts to boost morale.

10. Ukrainian Teenager Flees to Russia (Reported): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports (with photo) that a Ukrainian teenager, the son of Ukrainian refugees who had received Russian citizenship, illegally crossed the border from Finland to Russia, citing dissatisfaction with life in Finland. This is of limited direct military relevance but can be used as a propaganda.

11. Armenian Public Opinion (Reported): Рыбарь reports on a Gallup poll conducted in Armenia in late January, revealing declining support for the ruling party, concerns about potential Azerbaijani aggression, and positive views towards potential EU integration. This is not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, but may affect geopolitical aspects.

Updated Situation

• Confirmed Russian Advance, Donetsk Region: The capture of Orikhovo-Vasylivka is now definitively confirmed by multiple sources. This consolidates Russian control in the area north of Bakhmut and potentially opens new avenues of advance.

• Intense Fighting, Toretsk: Heavy fighting, including drone engagements, continues in the urban area of Toretsk, but Ukrainian forces maintain control.

• Drone Warfare Dominates: Reports from multiple sources across the front lines emphasize the pervasive use of drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. Both sides are actively employing and countering drone technology.

• Russian Tactical Adaptation: The installation of netting along a key road highlights a Russian response to the threat of Ukrainian FPV drones, demonstrating the ongoing adaptation to battlefield conditions.

• Diplomatic Activity: The non-committal response from the Kremlin regarding potential communication between Putin and Trump suggests ongoing, though possibly indirect, diplomatic activity.

• Logistical and Geopolitical Developments: The ship grounding off Sakhalin remains a separate incident, but it could disrupt the delivery of oil.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Assess Impact of Orikhovo-Vasylivka Capture (Extremely High Priority): Analyze the implications of the confirmed Russian control of Orikhovo-Vasylivka for the broader Bakhmut front. Determine likely Russian axes of advance and reinforce Ukrainian defensive positions accordingly.
2. Counter Drone Netting Tactics (High Priority): Develop and implement countermeasures to the Russian use of netting to protect supply routes from FPV drones. This could involve exploring alternative attack angles, using larger drones, or developing specialized munitions.
3. Maintain Toretsk Defenses (High Priority): Continue to reinforce Ukrainian positions in Toretsk and counter Russian attempts to gain ground in the city.
4. Verify Russian MoD Claims (Medium Priority): While acknowledging the source's bias, attempt to verify the Russian claims of Ukrainian casualties and equipment losses, as well as the strikes on infrastructure. This is important for overall battlefield assessment.
5. Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority): Continue to leverage drone technology for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks, while developing and deploying counter-drone measures.
6. All previous recommendations remain valid.