Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 09:08 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 08:38 UTC)

1. Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert (Ended, Confirmed): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration announced the end of the air raid alert at 09:05 UTC. This indicates a temporary reduction in the immediate aerial threat, but vigilance should remain high given the earlier threat assessment.

2. Air Threat, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions (Ended, Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reported the end of the threat for Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions at 09:06 UTC. This confirms the receding threat, likely connected to the Zaporizhzhia alert.

3. Russian Advances near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (Confirmed, MoD): The Russian Ministry of Defense announced at 09:03 UTC that Russian troops liberated Orikhovo-Vasylivka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). This is a significant claim and requires careful assessment. It suggests a shift in control in a localized area.

4. Kurakhove Direction, Thermobaric Munitions (Confirmed): "Два майора" (08:39 UTC) reports the use of thermobaric munitions by a Russian chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defense (RKhBZ) regiment in the Kurakhove direction. Video provided. This confirms the use of powerful weapons and suggests intense fighting in this area.

5. Kharkiv Region, Drone Warfare (Confirmed): "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (08:41 UTC) reports that Russian FPV drones are engaging Ukrainian drones in the Kharkiv region. Video provided. This confirms the ongoing drone warfare and highlights Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial capabilities.

6. North Korean Workers in Russia (Reported): RBC-Ukraine (08:42 UTC) reports, citing South Korean intelligence, that thousands of North Korean workers have been sent to Russia. This has potential implications for Russian manpower and labor resources, but the direct military impact is unclear.

7. Strela-10 SAM System Destroyed (Claimed): "Оперативний ЗСУ" (08:45 UTC) claims that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Strela-10 surface-to-air missile system with FPV drones. Video provided. This needs verification, but if confirmed, would represent a loss of a key air defense asset for Russian forces.

8. Sakhalin Island, Tanker Aground (Confirmed): Multiple sources (TASS, ASTRA, "Оперативний ЗСУ") report that a Chinese tanker carrying fuel oil ran aground near Sakhalin Island, leading to a state of emergency. This is not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, but could have logistical and environmental implications.

9. Ukrainian Military Criticizes TCC Recruitment (Confirmed): "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" (08:49 UTC) reports a Ukrainian soldier from the 93rd Brigade criticizing the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) for not deploying personnel to the front lines. Video provided. This reinforces reports of issues with Ukrainian recruitment and manpower.

10. Widespread Drone Use (Confirmed): "Kotsnews" (08:50 UTC) reports widespread use of Russian FPV drones ("Упырь") across the front, targeting various Ukrainian equipment and positions. Video provided. This highlights the continued importance of drone warfare.

11. Kursk Region, Ukrainian Offensive Repelled (Reinforced): "Colonelcassad" (08:50 UTC) reports on the repelling of a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, showing footage of destroyed equipment. Video provided. This reinforces earlier reports of Russian success in repelling Ukrainian attacks in this area.

12. Dvorichna-Kolodezne, Drone Strikes (Confirmed): "Сливочный каприз" (09:02 UTC) reports on Russian FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored personnel carriers near Dvorichna and Kolodezne. Video and map provided. This confirms ongoing fighting in this area and highlights Russian drone activity.

13. Ukrainian General Staff, Training Image (Confirmed): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:03 UTC) posted images of soldiers training for assaults, emphasizing ongoing training efforts. This is a routine activity but highlights ongoing efforts to improve combat readiness.

14. Russian Losses Near Pokrovsk (Claimed): RBC-Ukraine (09:06 UTC), citing a Ukrainian military spokesperson, claims that Russian forces lost 7,000 personnel (killed) near Pokrovsk in January. This supposedly exceeds the losses of Russia during the Second Chechen War. This is a very significant claim and requires careful verification. It suggests extremely heavy fighting in this area.

Updated Situation

• Intensified Fighting, Donetsk Region: Confirmed Russian advances near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, along with reports of thermobaric munitions use in the Kurakhove direction and extremely heavy fighting and casualties (according to Ukrainian claims) near Pokrovsk, indicate a significant escalation of fighting in the Donetsk region.
• Continued Cross-Border Clashes, Kursk Region: Repeated confirmations of repelled Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region, along with evidence of drone warfare and destroyed equipment, highlight the ongoing conflict along the border.
• Drone Warfare Remains Critical: Reports from multiple sources emphasize the widespread use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Issues: Reports of criticism within the Ukrainian military regarding recruitment practices and manpower allocation highlight potential challenges.
• Geopolitical Developments: Reports of North Korean workers in Russia, while not directly impacting combat, could have longer-term implications for Russian labor and resources. The grounded tanker off Sakhalin is a separate incident with potential environmental and logistical consequences.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Verify Pokrovsk Casualty Claims (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action): [Maintain as Extremely High Priority] Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the Ukrainian claims of 7,000 Russian casualties near Pokrovsk. This is crucial for assessing the scale of fighting and potential Russian losses.
2. Assess Orikhovo-Vasylivka Control (High Priority): [New Recommendation] Verify the Russian claim of control over Orikhovo-Vasylivka and assess the impact on the local tactical situation.
3. Monitor Kurakhove Direction (High Priority): [New Recommendation] Given the reported use of thermobaric munitions, closely monitor the Kurakhove direction for further escalation and potential Russian advances.
4. Reinforce Air Defense: Maintain high vigilance and focus on air defense to minimize further drone attacks.
5. Maintain Kupyansk Defenses (High Priority): [Maintain as High Priority] Continue efforts to interdict Russian attempts to cross the Oskil River and reinforce defensive positions in the Kupyansk direction.
6. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid and should be reviewed, particularly those concerning air defense and verification of claims in the Kursk and Pokrovsk regions.