Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 08:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 08:08 UTC)

1. Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration announced another air raid alert at 08:28 UTC. This confirms continued and potentially escalating aerial threats in the region, less than 30 minutes after the previous alert.

2. Southern Direction Air Threat (Confirmed): The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported at 08:29 UTC activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southern direction, with a threat of using air-launched weapons. This confirms the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia and indicates a broader threat across southern Ukraine.

3. Rivne Region Air Defense Activity (Confirmed): RBC-Ukraine reported at 08:29 UTC that air defense systems shot down 6 enemy targets in the Rivne region overnight. This was the longest air raid alert in the region since the start of the full-scale invasion. This corroborates earlier reports of drone activity in western Ukraine and confirms successful air defense engagement, though the type of targets remains unspecified.

4. Kursk Region, Repelled Attack, Confirmed Losses (Multiple Sources):

   • "Два майора" (08:19 UTC) and the Russian Ministry of Defense (08:28 UTC) report that Ukrainian armored vehicles were destroyed by FPV drones from the "Rubikon" Center during a repelled attack in the Kursk region on February 6th. This confirms the ongoing cross-border clashes and highlights the effectiveness of Russian drone defenses. Video provided.
   • "Дневник Десантника" (08:37 UTC) claims a group of "Germans" (likely referring to foreign fighters) were spotted hiding in a building in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Kursk region. They claim FPV drones were used to target them after reconnaissance. This needs verification, but suggests targeting of foreign fighters. Video provided.
   • Kadyrov_95 (08:31 UTC) reports on strikes on Ukrainian positions, including a US-supplied Mk 19 grenade launcher.

5. Pokrovsk, Russian DRG Activity (Claimed): "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" (08:19 UTC) claims that Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups (DRGs) are entering the outskirts of Pokrovsk, supported by artillery fire. This requires urgent verification, as it suggests a significant escalation in Russian offensive operations in a new direction.

6. Kupyansk Direction, Oskil River Crossing (Multiple Confirmations):

   • Multiple sources ("РБК-Україна" at 08:01 UTC, "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" at 08:26 and 08:33 UTC) report that Ukrainian forces struck Russian troops attempting to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" claims this was an attempt to expand a bridgehead. This reinforces the importance of the Kupyansk direction and Ukrainian success in interdicting Russian movements. Map provided.

7. Andriivka Area Advances (Reported, Needs Verification): "Военкор Котенок" (08:35 UTC) reports continued Russian advances in Andriivka, north of Kostiantynopil, and fighting near Bohater, Razliv. They also report advances east of Zelenivka towards Ulakly. This suggests ongoing, localized Russian offensive efforts. The claim that Zelenivka is not under anyone's control needs careful assessment. Map provided.

8. Serbian President, Car Incident (Confirmed): "Оперативний ЗСУ" (08:10 UTC) reports that Serbian President Vučić's car lost a wheel while driving, forcing him to switch vehicles. Serbian special services are investigating. This is not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, but could have geopolitical implications depending on the investigation's findings.

9. Prisoner Release, Zaporizhzhia (Confirmed): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (08:10 UTC) reports that 144 servicemen from the region have been returned from captivity as part of prisoner exchanges. This highlights ongoing negotiations and prisoner exchanges, potentially indicating some level of communication between the warring parties.

10. Russian Recruitment of Ukrainians (Reinforced): "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники" (08:28 UTC) reports on a case of a man with schizophrenia allegedly forced to sign a military contract in Russia. This reinforces earlier reports of questionable Russian recruitment practices.

11. Toretsk, Ukrainian Flag Removal (Confirmed): "Олексій Білошицький" (08:36 UTC) reports that Russian forces attempted to raise a Russian flag over Toretsk, but Ukrainian forces destroyed it with a drone-dropped grenade. This confirms ongoing fighting for Toretsk and highlights the symbolic importance of the city.

12. Kupyansk Direction, Destruction of Western Equipment (Claimed): "Басурин о главном" (08:37 UTC) claims that Russian FPV drones destroyed two Belgian AIFV-B-C25 armored personnel carriers and a Canadian Roshel Senator armored vehicle in the Kupyansk direction. This requires independent verification but highlights the presence of Western-supplied equipment on the Ukrainian side and potential Russian successes in targeting it.

13. Near Seversk, Ukrainian Self-Propelled Gun Destroyed (Claimed): "Воин DV" (08:33 UTC) claims that a Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit east of Seversk. This needs verification, but if confirmed, would indicate continued efforts to degrade Ukrainian artillery capabilities.

Updated Situation

The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with key developments in multiple sectors:

• Intensified Air Threat: Confirmed air raid alerts and threats of air-launched weapons in southern Ukraine, particularly Zaporizhzhia, indicate a heightened risk of missile and drone strikes.
• Continued Cross-Border Clashes: Confirmed fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces claiming success in repelling Ukrainian attacks and targeting foreign fighters.
• Kupyansk Direction Remains Active: Confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Russian troops attempting to cross the Oskil River highlight the ongoing struggle for control in this area.
• Potential Russian Advance on Pokrovsk: Claims of Russian DRG activity near Pokrovsk require urgent verification, but suggest a potential new axis of attack.
• Localized Russian Advances: Reports of continued fighting and localized Russian advances near Andriivka, Bohater, and other settlements indicate ongoing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
• Confirmation of Trump-Putin Communication Unclear: Kremlin spokesman Peskov's statement neither confirms nor denies the reported phone call, maintaining uncertainty about potential high-level communication.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Maintain Maximum Air Defense Alert (Extreme Priority, Immediate Action): [Maintain as Extreme Priority, with Increased Urgency] The confirmed air raid alerts and threats in southern Ukraine, particularly Zaporizhzhia, necessitate maximum readiness of air defense systems.

2. Verify Pokrovsk DRG Claims (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action): [New Recommendation, Highest Priority] Immediately deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the claims of Russian DRG activity near Pokrovsk. This is crucial for assessing the threat and preparing appropriate responses.

3. Reinforce Kupyansk Defenses (High Priority): [Maintain as High Priority] Continue efforts to interdict Russian attempts to cross the Oskil River and reinforce defensive positions in the Kupyansk direction.

4. Verify Russian claims: Check all claims made by Russian sources (Kursk, Pokrovsk, Andriivka)

5. Kursk Region (Maintain Defensive Posture - High Priority): [Unchanged] Continue efforts to disrupt Russian movements and supply lines.

6. Monitor Trump-Putin Communication (High Priority): [Maintain as High Priority] Continue to closely monitor any further reports or developments related to potential Trump-Putin communication.

7. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid and should be reviewed.