Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 08:08 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 07:38 UTC)

1. Drone Attacks Across Russia (Confirmed, Widespread): Both "Север.Реалии" and "Военкор Котенок" confirm a significant wave of Ukrainian drone attacks overnight, targeting multiple regions across Russia. A total of 35-36 drones were reportedly shot down, covering Kursk, Orlov, Krasnodar, Voronezh, Rostov, Bryansk, Tula, and Crimea. "Север.Реалии" notes that attacks have intensified since Spring 2024. Temporary flight restrictions were implemented at airports in Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, and St. Petersburg. This confirms a large-scale, coordinated Ukrainian drone attack campaign targeting Russian territory.

2. Kursk Region (Border Fighting - Confirmed, Casualties): "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that Ukrainian border guard artillery, north of Sumy, inflicted casualties on Russian forces: 11 killed and 5 wounded. This confirms ongoing cross-border clashes and Ukrainian success in interdicting Russian troops.

3. Yampolivka (Russian Entry - Claimed): "Colonelcassad" claims that Russian forces have entered Yampolivka, advanced in the "Zapadny" area, are assaulting Andriivka, and have liberated Orekhovo-Vasilevka. This contradicts earlier claims of reduced Russian offensive activity and requires urgent verification. It suggests renewed Russian offensive efforts. A map is provided.

4. Orlov Region Strike Confirmation (Partially Confirmed): "Оперативний ЗСУ" corroborates the earlier "КіберБорошно" report of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian drone storage facility in the Orlov region, citing the use of "SS" missiles (likely referring to Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG). They claim damage to a bunker. This increases the likelihood of a successful deep strike, though the extent of damage and impact on Russian drone operations remains unconfirmed.

5. Trump-Putin Communication (Unconfirmed, Potentially Significant):

   • "Север.Реалии" reports a New York Post claim that former US President Trump had a phone call with Russian President Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Trump reportedly stated Putin "wants people to stop dying."
   • "Шеф Hayabusa" reiterates the report, mentioning Trump's claim of a specific plan to end the war.
   • TASS reports that Kremlin spokesperson Peskov could "neither confirm nor deny" the reports of a Trump-Putin call, stating that communications between Moscow and Washington occur through various channels.
   • While unconfirmed, this potential high-level communication could significantly impact the conflict's trajectory. It warrants close monitoring and analysis.

6. Potential US-Ukraine Deal (Reported): "Север.Реалии" and "Шеф Hayabusa" report a New York Post claim that the US is considering a $500 million deal with Ukraine, offering security guarantees in exchange for access to Ukrainian gas and rare earth minerals. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky next week. This indicates a potential shift in US strategy, emphasizing economic interests and long-term security arrangements.

7. Russian Recruitment of Ukrainians (Reported): "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" cites The Washington Post, claiming that Russian intelligence services are recruiting Ukrainians with pro-Russian views to attack Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs), offering payment but then remotely detonating explosives to kill the perpetrators. This suggests a Russian attempt to destabilize Ukraine internally and discredit recruitment efforts.

8. Belgorod Drone Attack (Confirmed, Civilian Casualty): ASTRA and TASS confirm a Ukrainian drone attack on a truck in Shelaevo, Belgorod region, injuring a civilian. This underscores the ongoing cross-border attacks and the impact on civilians.

9. Kyiv Drone Attack Aftermath (Confirmed): "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "РБК-Україна" report that debris from a downed drone fell on a construction site in the Obukhiv district of Kyiv, damaging a multi-story building under construction. This confirms a Ukrainian drone attack reached the Kyiv region and caused some damage.

10. Estonia Disconnects from Russian Power Grid (Confirmed): "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that Estonia, along with Latvia and Lithuania, disconnected from the Russian and Belarusian power grid on February 8th and will connect to the European grid by February 9th. This represents a significant geopolitical and energy security development, reducing Baltic reliance on Russia.

11. Southern Front Losses (Reported): "Сили оборони Півдня України" reports on Ukrainian strikes in the south, claiming the following Russian losses: 28 personnel, 3 mortars, 14 armored vehicles, 1 anti-tank missile system, 7 Shahed-136 drones, 3 reconnaissance drones (Zala and Supercam), 1 boat, 1 surveillance camera, 12 UAV control antennas, 4 communication antennas, 2 Starlink antennas, 1 ammunition storage, 46 dugouts/shelters, and 3 observation posts. This suggests continued Ukrainian success in targeting Russian assets in the south.

12. Oskil River Crossing Attempt (Reported): "РБК-Україна" reports that Ukrainian forces struck Russian troops attempting to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna in the Kupyansk direction. This highlights ongoing efforts to control key river crossings and prevent Russian advances.

13. Dagestan Attack (Reported): TASS reports an attack on a police officer in Derbent, Dagestan, with suspects detained. This is not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, but worth noting for any potential spillover effects or internal security issues in Russia.

Updated Situation

The situation remains highly dynamic, with a significant increase in reported Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia. Claims of reduced Russian offensive activity are contradicted by reports of continued and potentially intensified fighting in multiple sectors, particularly around Yampolivka and the Kupyansk direction. The potential Trump-Putin communication and the reported US-Ukraine deal introduce significant geopolitical variables. The confirmed Ukrainian deep strike in the Orlov region, if fully verified, demonstrates a significant capability. Cross-border clashes continue in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. The disconnection of Baltic states from the Russian power grid represents a major shift in regional energy dynamics.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Verify Claims of Reduced Activity (High Priority): [Maintain as High Priority, with Increased Urgency] Independently verify claims of reduced Russian activity, given conflicting reports of renewed offensives. Cross-reference all intelligence sources.

2. Kursk and Kherson Regions (Maintain Defensive Posture - High Priority): [Unchanged] Continue efforts to disrupt Russian movements and supply lines.

3. Krasnolimansk Direction (Assess and Reinforce - High Priority): [Unchanged, Increased Emphasis] Assess the reported Russian advances, particularly around Yampolivka. Reinforce Ukrainian positions and prepare for potential counterattacks. Verify "Colonelcassad" claims of territorial gains.

4. Orlov Region (Verify Strike and Assess Impact - Extremely High Priority): [Maintain as Extremely High Priority] Continue efforts to independently verify the strike and assess its impact. Exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian drone operations.

5. Air Defense (Maintain High Alert - High Priority): [Increased Emphasis] Given the widespread and confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia, maintain a high state of alert for air defense systems across Ukraine and consider deploying additional resources to protect critical infrastructure. Address the activity in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

6. Drone Warfare (Continue Development and Deployment - High Priority): [Unchanged] Continue prioritizing both offensive and defensive drone capabilities.

7. Information Warfare (Monitor and Counter - Medium Priority): [Increased Emphasis] Monitor and counter Russian disinformation efforts, particularly regarding claims of reduced activity and potential recruitment of Ukrainians for sabotage. Address the claims of "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" regarding Russian recruitment and subsequent killings of Ukrainian operatives.

8. Verify All Claims (Extremely High Priority): [Increased Emphasis] Prioritize independent verification of all key claims, including those related to Russian advances, Ukrainian strikes, and geopolitical developments.

9. Monitor Trump-Putin Communication (High Priority): [New Recommendation] Closely monitor any further reports or developments related to potential Trump-Putin communication. Analyze the potential impact on US policy and the conflict's trajectory.

10. Assess US-Ukraine Deal (High Priority): [New Recommendation] Analyze the potential implications of the reported US-Ukraine deal, including its impact on Ukrainian defense capabilities, economic relations, and long-term security.

11. Kupyansk Direction (Assess and Defend - High Priority): [New Recommendation] Focus on defending the Oskil River crossing near Dvorichna and preventing Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction.

12. Exploit Baltic Energy Shift (Long-Term Strategic Opportunity): [New Recommendation] Assess the long-term implications of the Baltic states' disconnection from the Russian power grid. Consider opportunities to strengthen energy security and reduce regional reliance on Russia.

13. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid and should be reviewed in light of the updated situation.