Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 07:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 07:08 UTC)

1. Alleged Reduction in Russian Offensive Activity (Unconfirmed): Alex Parker Returns claims a reduction in Russian missile strikes and assault activity, attributing it to potential diplomatic pressure. This claim requires independent verification and could be disinformation. It is inconsistent with other reports.

2. Kursk Region (Positional Fighting - Confirmed): "Сливочный каприз" reports positional fighting near Sudzha, with Russian forces controlling the road between Dar'ino and Sverdlikovo. Ukrainian forces reportedly shelled Russian troops during a rotation. This confirms ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, focused on key road links.

3. Kherson Region (Positional Fighting - Confirmed): "Сливочный каприз" also reports positional fighting in the Dnipro River delta near Alyoshki and Peschanovka, with Russian troops coming under fire near the destroyed Antonovsky railway bridge. This confirms ongoing fighting in the Kherson region, with a focus on the Dnipro River crossings.

4. South-Donetsk Direction (Drone Strike - Reported): "Воин DV" reports a Russian drone strike on a concentration of Ukrainian forces during a rotation. This, if confirmed, demonstrates the continued use of drones for interdiction and disruption of enemy movements.

5. Krasnolimansk Direction (Russian Advances - Reported): "Дневник Десантника" reports Russian advances near Ivanivka (800m south) and Novolyubovka (300m), as well as fighting near Terny and Yampolivka, with Russian forces reportedly securing positions on the outskirts of Yampolivka. This suggests a renewed Russian offensive effort in this area.

6. Pokrovsk Direction (Continued Fighting - Reported): Alex Parker Returns reports continued fighting near Kotlyno, Peschanoye, and Shevchenko, with Ukrainian forces allegedly holding back their main reserves. This contradicts their earlier claim of reduced activity, reinforcing the need for independent verification.

7. Orlov Region (Drone Storage Facility Strike - Claimed): "КіберБорошно" claims a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike on an underground bunker used to store Russian drones in the Orlov region, providing coordinates. If confirmed, this would represent a significant deep strike capability and a blow to Russian drone operations.

8. Air Activity Threat (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force alerts for activity of enemy tactical aviation in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

9. Damage to a construction site: Fragments of a downed drone fell on the territory of a construction site, where a multi-story building is under construction.

10. Scam Alert: Expert Alla Khrapunova exposed a blackmail scheme due to transfers allegedly in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

11. Propaganda: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that US President Donald Trump is seriously planning to annex Canada, this is not a joke, but a serious threat.

Updated Situation

The situation remains highly dynamic. Claims of reduced Russian offensive activity are inconsistent with reports of continued fighting in multiple sectors. The most significant potential developments are the claimed Ukrainian deep strike in the Orlov region and the reported Russian advances in the Krasnolimansk direction. The Kherson and Kursk regions remain active fronts, with a focus on key logistical points. Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature of the conflict, with both sides employing them for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Verify Claims of Reduced Activity (High Priority): Independently verify Alex Parker Returns' claims of reduced Russian missile strikes and assault activity. Cross-reference with other intelligence sources and assess the potential for disinformation.
2. Kursk and Kherson Regions (Maintain Defensive Posture - High Priority): Maintain a strong defensive posture along the key roads and river crossings in the Kursk and Kherson regions. Continue efforts to disrupt Russian movements and supply lines.
3. Krasnolimansk Direction (Assess and Reinforce - High Priority): Assess the reported Russian advances in the Krasnolimansk direction. Reinforce Ukrainian positions and prepare for potential counterattacks if necessary.
4. Orlov Region (Verify Strike and Assess Impact - Extremely High Priority): Attempt to independently verify the claimed Ukrainian strike on the drone storage facility in the Orlov region. If confirmed, assess the impact on Russian drone operations and exploit any resulting vulnerabilities.
5. Air Defense (Maintain High Alert - High Priority): Given the continued threat of air strikes and drone activity, maintain a high state of readiness for air defense systems across all affected regions. Address the activity in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
6. Drone Warfare (Continue Development and Deployment - High Priority): Continue to prioritize the development and deployment of both offensive and defensive drone capabilities. Analyze the reported Russian drone strike tactics and adapt countermeasures accordingly.
7. Information Warfare (Monitor and Counter - Medium Priority): Monitor and counter Russian disinformation efforts, particularly regarding claims of reduced offensive activity.
8. Verify all claims: Confirm the claim regarding the strike in the Orlov region.
9. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations are still valid.