Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 06:08 UTC)

1. General Staff Report (Confirmation and Detail): "Operativni ZSU" reiterates the General Staff report, confirming the high intensity of combat: 133 clashes, 54 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction, 28 attacks repelled in the Kursk direction, and 12 attacks repelled in the Novopavlivka direction. This confirms and details the widespread and intense nature of fighting. The report also mentions:

   • 147 KABs dropped on Ukraine, and 64 on the Kursk region.
   • Over 5800 shellings, 127 from MLRS.
   • 2856 kamikaze drone attacks.
   • Ukrainian forces targeted six areas of Russian personnel and equipment concentration, three artillery systems, and two radar stations. This information gives a detailed, although possibly inflated, account of military activities.

2. Kharkiv Region (Local Reports): Governor Oleh Synyehubov of Kharkiv Oblast reports on shelling incidents in the region on February 8:

   • 22:22: Vodyane, Bohodukhiv district - administrative building destroyed, windows damaged.
   • 17:40: Velykyi Burluk, Kupiansk district - empty grain storage container damaged by drone attack.
   • 13:09: Osynove, Kupiansk district - drone attack, no casualties.
   • 09:15: Kupiansk - vehicle damaged by "Molniya" type drone. This indicates ongoing, targeted attacks on infrastructure and vehicles within the Kharkiv region, likely by Russian forces.

   Governor also reports on the military situation:

   • Kharkiv Direction: 2 attacks were repelled near Vovchansk.
   • Kupyansk Direction: 8 attacks.

3. Kursk Oblast (FPV Drone Strike - Confirmed): TASS publishes a video from the Russian Ministry of Defense showing the destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles by FPV drones from the "Rubicon" center in Kursk Oblast. This confirms active use of FPV drones by Russian forces and successful targeting of Ukrainian armor.

4. Geopolitical Developments:

   • Trump-Putin Phone Call (Confirmed): Multiple sources confirm a phone call between President Trump and President Putin. Trump claims to have a plan to end the war and expresses a desire for a $500 million deal with Zelensky for access to rare earth minerals in exchange for security guarantees. This represents a significant diplomatic development, although the specifics and feasibility of Trump's plan are unclear.
   • Trump on Iran (Confirmed): President Trump states he prefers a diplomatic solution with Iran over military action ("bombing"). This indicates a preference for non-military engagement with Iran, at least publicly.
   • Sternenko's warning: Sternenko warns that President Trump's first call being with Putin instead of Zelensky is a bad sign, and an indication of his priorities.

5. Institute for the Study of War report: The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukrainian forces recovered lost positions near Chasiv Yar.

Updated Situation

The most significant updates are the detailed confirmation of intense fighting across multiple fronts from Ukrainian sources (General Staff and Governor Synyehubov), the confirmed use of FPV drones by Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, and the diplomatic developments involving President Trump's conversations with Putin and statements about Iran. The intensity of air and artillery strikes, as reported by the General Staff, remains a critical factor. The confirmed reports of shelling and drone attacks in the Kharkiv region highlight the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Kursk Oblast (FPV Drone Deployment - Analyze and Replicate - High Priority): Analyze the tactics and effectiveness of the "Rubicon" center's FPV drone operations in Kursk Oblast. Consider replicating successful strategies and deploying similar units in other threatened areas.
2. Kharkiv Region (Protect Infrastructure - High Priority): Given the reported shelling and drone attacks, increase security measures around critical infrastructure in the Kharkiv region, including administrative buildings, grain storage, and transportation. Improve drone detection and interception capabilities.
3. Diplomatic Developments (Monitor and Analyze - High Priority): Closely monitor the developments related to President Trump's diplomatic efforts. Analyze the potential implications of his proposed plan and any potential deals with Zelensky. Assess the credibility and feasibility of these initiatives.
4. General Staff Report (Continued Verification - High Priority): Continue cross-referencing the detailed information from the General Staff report with other intelligence sources to verify claims and identify priority areas for resource allocation and defense. Pay particular attention to claims of high Russian losses.
5. Chasiv Yar (Exploit and Reinforce - Medium Priority): Given the ISW report of regained positions near Chasiv Yar, assess the situation and consider options to reinforce these gains and potentially exploit the tactical advantage.
6. All Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations are still valid.