Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 06:08 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 05:38 UTC, February 9)
Kursk Oblast (Continued Fighting, Clarification)
Rotation Attempt and Engagement (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports a Ukrainian attempt to rotate troops near Cherkasskaya Konopelka during the night, with Russian artillery engaging the evacuation groups.
Ulanok Area (Clarification): Claims that "deesposobnykh" (incapacitated) Ukrainian forces remain in the forested area near Ulanok, with only wounded ("trekhsotye" - code for wounded) possibly surviving the cold. This confirms continued presence of Ukrainian forces, albeit in a severely weakened state.
Fanaseevka Engagement (Confirmed): Two Ukrainian armored vehicles attempted to enter Fanaseevka, one was destroyed, and the other retreated after dropping off infantry. Russian forces are using drones to target remaining Ukrainian infantry. This clarifies the situation in Fanaseevka, indicating ongoing fighting and a successful, albeit partial, Russian defense.
Internal Discord (Reported, Low Priority): "Dnevnik Desantnika" criticizes internal disputes within the Russian forces, specifically mentioning "Akhmat" units, and calls for unity. While highlighting potential internal friction, this is less critical than the ongoing fighting.
Mykolaiv Oblast (Drone Interceptions)
Shahed Drone Interceptions (Confirmed): Two Shahed drones were shot down over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight (RBK-Ukraine). This indicates continued drone activity in the southern regions.
Belgorod Oblast (Civilian Vehicle Damage)
Extensive Vehicle Damage (Confirmed): Governor Gladkov of Belgorod reports damage or destruction to almost 14,000 vehicles in the Belgorod People's Republic (BNR) due to combat operations (Operativni ZSU). This is significant as it reflects the impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and potentially indicates cross-border shelling or attacks.
Kherson Oblast (Drone Interception)
Shahed Drone Interception (Confirmed): One Shahed-131/136 drone was shot down over Kherson Oblast during a night attack (RBK-Ukraine). This reinforces the pattern of drone attacks targeting southern Ukraine.
South-Donetsk Direction (Artillery Strikes)
Artillery strikes in progress (Confirmed): "Воин DV" reports that the 200th separate artillery brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army is currently attacking enemy strongholds in the South-Donetsk direction.
Geopolitical Developments
STERNENKO reports that president Trump has called president Putin, and that he has a specific plan to end the war.
USAID funding for media outlets (Confirmed): USAID is reported to have spent 10% of its budget in Ukraine.
Kharkiv Oblast (Cross-Border Operation)
Volchya River Operation (Confirmed): Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault group preparing to cross the Volchya River in the Kharkiv region (TASS). This confirms ongoing cross-border military activity and potential Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate Russian-controlled territory.
Nizhny Novgorod Airport (Restrictions Lifted)
Flight Restrictions Lifted (Confirmed): Temporary flight restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod Airport have been lifted (TASS). Similar to the St. Petersburg incident, this suggests a temporary threat, likely drone-related, has been resolved.
General Staff Report (Ukrainian Perspective)
Extensive Combat (Confirmed): The Ukrainian General Staff reports 133 combat engagements in the past 24 hours, with 91 airstrikes (including 147 KABs - guided aerial bombs), over 5800 shellings (127 from MLRS), and 2856 kamikaze drone attacks.
Airstrikes (Confirmed): Airstrikes were reported in multiple locations, including Velyki Prokhody, Lyptsi, Markove, Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, Vasylivka, Hryshyne, Bahatyr, Rozlyv, Huliaipole, Novodarivka, Novopil, Olhivske, Stepnohirsk, and Marivka.
Ukrainian Strikes (Confirmed): Ukrainian forces targeted six areas of Russian personnel and equipment concentration, three artillery systems, and two radar stations.
Frontline updates:
Kharkiv Direction: Two attacks repelled near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Direction: Eight attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
Lyman Direction: Seven attacks, attempts to advance towards Novoiehorivka, Kolodiazi, and Yampilivka.
Siversk Direction: Four attacks near Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Direction: Three engagements near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora.
Toretsk Direction: Nine attacks near Krymske and Toretsk.
Pokrovsk Direction: 54 attacks repelled in various locations.
Novopavlivka Direction: 12 attacks repelled, concentrated near Kostiantynopol.
Huliaipole Direction: One attack towards Novopil.
Orikhiv and Prydniprovsky Directions: No offensive actions by the enemy.
Volyn and Polissya Directions: No signs of enemy offensive groupings.
Claimed Russian Losses (High Numbers): 1460 personnel, 11 tanks, 20 ACVs, 24 artillery systems, 1 aircraft, 83 operational-tactical UAVs, 127 vehicles, and 1 unit of special equipment. These figures are, as before, likely inflated for propaganda purposes but indicate significant fighting.
Kherson Direction (Lancet Strike)
Lancet Strike on SAU (Confirmed): "Arkhanhel Spetsnaza" reports a Lancet drone strike on a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) in the Kherson direction.
Lyman Direction (Russian Advances)
Expansion of Bridgehead (Claimed, Likely Exaggerated): "Operatsiya Z" claims Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River near Terny, advancing in the eastern part of the settlement and the western part of Laptev Yar.
Attacks on Yampolivka and Kolodiazi (Claimed): Russian forces are reportedly attacking towards Yampolivka, with motorized rifle units reaching the northern outskirts. Attacks are also claimed west and southwest of Ivanivka, approaching Kolodiazi. These claims, while likely exaggerated, suggest ongoing Russian offensive efforts in this area.
Claims: Russian forces reportedly advanced up to 2km.
Updated Situation Summary
The most significant changes since the last report are:
Kursk Oblast (Clarification of Fighting): The situation near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka is clearer, with confirmed ongoing fighting, albeit with Ukrainian forces significantly weakened. The destruction of one Ukrainian armored vehicle and the retreat of another confirms Russian defensive success.
Continued Drone Activity in Southern Ukraine: Confirmed drone interceptions over Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts highlight the persistent threat of drone attacks.
Extensive Vehicle Damage in Belgorod Oblast: The report of nearly 14,000 damaged vehicles reflects the significant impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and suggests cross-border shelling or attacks.
Kharkiv Oblast Cross-Border Operation: The destruction of a Ukrainian assault group attempting to cross the Volchya River confirms ongoing cross-border military activity.
Lyman Direction (Russian Offensive Efforts): While claims of significant advances are likely exaggerated, reports of attacks on Yampolivka and Kolodiazi suggest a continued Russian offensive push in this area.
General Staff Report (Comprehensive Overview): The Ukrainian General Staff report provides a detailed, albeit likely biased, overview of the extensive fighting across multiple fronts, confirming high levels of military activity.
Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)
Kursk Oblast (Assess and Reinforce - High Priority): Gather further intelligence to assess the situation near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and Ulanok. Reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential further Ukrainian attempts to regain ground.
Southern Ukraine (Maintain Air Defense Readiness - High Priority): Given the continued drone activity, maintain high readiness of air defense systems in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.
Belgorod Oblast (Assess and Mitigate - Medium Priority): Investigate the cause of the extensive vehicle damage in Belgorod. Assess the possibility of cross-border shelling or attacks and take measures to mitigate the risk to civilians.
Kharkiv Oblast (Border Security - High Priority): Strengthen border security and surveillance along the Volchya River to prevent further Ukrainian infiltration attempts.
Lyman Direction (Assess and Defend - High Priority): Gather intelligence to verify Russian claims of advances near Terny, Yampolivka, and Kolodiazi. Reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential further Russian offensive operations.
General Staff Report (Analyze and Corroborate - High Priority): Analyze the detailed information provided in the General Staff report, cross-referencing it with other intelligence sources to verify claims and identify key areas of concern.
All previous recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid, and will be addressed accordingly.
