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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-02-09 05:38:28Z
1 year ago
Previous (2025-02-09 05:08:36Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 05:08 UTC, February 9)

Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Intense Fighting, Civilian Casualties)

  • Extensive Attacks (Confirmed): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports 342 strikes across 11 settlements within the last 24 hours. This includes:
    • 23 airstrikes on Marivka, Stepnohirsk, Huliaipole, and Mali Shcherbaky.
    • 163 UAV attacks on Kam'ianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
    • 5 MLRS attacks on Kam'ianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, and Novodarivka.
    • 151 artillery strikes on Kam'ianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Omelnyk, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
  • Civilian Casualties (Confirmed): Two adults and two children were injured in Huliaipole due to enemy attacks.
  • Property Damage (Confirmed): 20 reports of damage to apartments, private houses, and vehicles.
  • Image Analysis: Images confirm severe structural damage in the region, supporting the reports of intense strikes, disrupted infrastructure, and a high potential for humanitarian needs.

Enemy Losses (Ukrainian Claims, High Numbers)

  • Significant Personnel and Equipment Losses (Claimed): The Ukrainian General Staff and "РБК-Україна" claim significant Russian losses in the last 24 hours:
    • 1460 personnel
    • 1 aircraft
    • 11 tanks
    • 20 armored combat vehicles (ACVs)
    • 24 artillery systems
  • Images Images support this claim.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Artillery and Drone Attacks)

  • Artillery Strikes (Confirmed): Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration) reports two artillery attacks on Nikopol and Chervonohryhorivka community overnight.
  • Damage (Confirmed): Three private houses, outbuildings, and a gas pipeline were damaged. One outbuilding was destroyed. No casualties were reported.
  • Drone Interceptions (Confirmed): Two enemy drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Fire (Confirmed, Extinguished): A fire caused by a Shahed drone attack in Synelnykivshchyna was extinguished.
  • Image Analysis: Images depicting damage (including destroyed buildings, a broken window, and a blast-damaged house) confirm the reports.

Kryvyi Rih (Stable, No Attacks in District)

  • Situation Controlled (Confirmed): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled. No shelling occurred in the Kryvyi Rih district. All city services, transport, hospitals, and social institutions are operational.
  • Nikopol District: Artillery attacks in Nikopol and the Chervonohryhorivka community reported, confirming previous information from Serhiy Lysak.

Kursk Oblast (Russian Offensive Actions)

  • Offensive against Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka (Claimed, Likely Exaggerated): "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" claims Russian forces are attacking the area of the "counter-offensive" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, claiming near-complete clearance of Fanaseevka and attacks on Cherkasskaya Konopelka. The source claims Ukrainian forces are retreating to forests. While likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes, this indicates ongoing fighting in this area, confirming earlier assessments.
  • Attacks near AZS "Lotos" and a dam: Russian Forces are reportedly attacking Ukrainian troops.

Other Developments

  • St. Petersburg Airport Restrictions (Confirmed, Lifted): Restrictions on flights at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg due to a drone in the Leningrad Oblast have been lifted (ASTRA, ТАСС).
  • Hotel Bookings in Russia (Irrelevant): TASS reports a fourfold increase in hotel bookings for May holidays in Russia, with St. Petersburg being the most popular destination. This is irrelevant to the military situation in Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

The most significant changes since the last report are:

  1. Intense Fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The report of 342 strikes across multiple settlements, including civilian casualties and property damage, confirms a high level of military activity and a significant threat to the civilian population in this region.
  2. High Claimed Enemy Losses: Ukrainian sources claim very high Russian personnel and equipment losses, although this information is likely inflated for propaganda purposes.
  3. Confirmed Artillery and Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk: Reports and images confirm continued attacks, albeit with limited casualties.
  4. Ongoing Fighting Near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast: While claims of a near-complete "clearance" of Fanaseevka are likely exaggerated, the report confirms ongoing fighting and Russian offensive activity in this area.
  5. Lifting of Flight Restrictions in St. Petersburg: The removal of flight restrictions indicates that the immediate threat posed by the drone in Leningrad Oblast has passed, although the incident underscores Ukraine's ability to project force deep into Russian territory.
  6. Air Raid Alert Map Update: An updated air raid alert map shows active alerts in Northwestern Ukraine (Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv), Luhansk, and Crimea.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

  1. Prioritize Humanitarian Aid and Evacuation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Extremely High Priority): Given the intensity of attacks and reported civilian casualties, focus resources on providing humanitarian assistance, medical care, and potential evacuation support to affected areas.
  2. Verify Claimed Enemy Losses (High Priority): Attempt to corroborate Ukrainian claims of significant Russian losses through independent sources and imagery analysis. While likely inflated, substantial losses could impact Russian operational capabilities.
  3. Reinforce Air Defense in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (High Priority): Continued drone and artillery attacks necessitate strengthening air defense capabilities to protect civilian infrastructure and minimize casualties.
  4. Assess Russian Offensive Activity Near Sudzha (High Priority): Gather intelligence to clarify the situation in the Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka area, assessing the extent of Russian advances and the potential for further offensive operations.
  5. Maintain Heightened Alert in Northwestern Ukraine, Luhansk, and Crimea (High Priority): The air raid alert map indicates a continued elevated threat in these regions. Maintain heightened readiness of air defense systems and preparedness for potential attacks.
  6. Address all previous recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid, and will be addressed accordingly.
Previous (2025-02-09 05:08:36Z)

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