Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 05:08 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 04:38 UTC, February 9)
Geopolitical Developments
Confirmation of Trump-Putin Communication (Confirmed): Multiple sources (РБК-Україна, ТАСС) confirm that Donald Trump has spoken with Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump claims Putin "wants people to stop dying" and that he (Trump) has a plan. He instructed his National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, to begin preparations for meetings. Trump is also seeking a $500 million deal with Zelensky for access to Ukrainian resources in exchange for security guarantees. This reinforces the previous assessment, solidifying the existence of back-channel communication and Trump's transactional approach to the conflict.
Drone Warfare (Intensified, Multi-Regional)
Extensive Drone Interceptions (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defense (Минобороны, ТАСС, ASTRA) reports shooting down 35 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions: 18 in Kursk Oblast, 4 each in Oryol Oblast and Krasnodar Krai, 3 each in Voronezh and Rostov Oblasts, and 1 each in Bryansk and Tula Oblasts, and annexed Crimea. This represents a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone attacks targeting a wide swathe of Russian territory and occupied Crimea. The sheer number of drones intercepted suggests a coordinated and large-scale operation by Ukraine.
Drone Destroyed Over Leningrad Oblast (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defense (ТАСС) reports the destruction of a Ukrainian drone over Leningrad Oblast at 07:00 Moscow time (04:00 UTC). This is a significant development, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to project drone attacks deep into Russian territory, targeting a region far from the front lines.
Bryansk Oblast Drone Interception (Confirmed): Governor Bogomaz (AV БогомаZ) confirms the destruction of a Ukrainian drone over Bryansk Oblast overnight, with no casualties or damage.
Continued Drone Movements in Ukraine (Confirmed, Ongoing): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports (04:48, 05:07 UTC):
* One drone near Kyiv, heading towards Boryspil.
* One drone moving from Rivne Oblast to Volyn Oblast.
* Three drones in the north of Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west.
* One drone approaching Lutsk.
This indicates continued and widespread drone activity within Ukraine, posing threats to multiple regions.
Air Raid Alert in Kyiv (Confirmed, Lifted): Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) announced (04:51 UTC) and lifted (05:03 UTC) an air raid alert for Kyiv. This corresponds with the reported drone movement towards Boryspil, indicating a direct threat to the capital region.
Black Sea: 1 Missile Carrier (Confirmed): Both the Ukrainian General Staff (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) and "РБК-Україна" report (04:46 UTC) one Russian missile carrier in the Black Sea with a potential salvo of up to 4 "Kalibr" missiles.
Azov Sea: No Enemy Ships (Confirmed): Both sources confirm the absence of Russian warships in the Azov Sea. However, three ships passed through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov, one of which came from the Bosphorus.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 Ships, 2 Missile Carriers (Confirmed): The Ukrainian General Staff reports 6 Russian warships in the Mediterranean, including 2 "Kalibr" missile carriers with a potential salvo of up to 22 missiles.
Kerch Strait Traffic (Confirmed): The Ukrainian General Staff reports the passage of 1 ship through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea (which did not continue to the Bosphorus) and 3 ships towards the Azov Sea (1 from the Bosphorus). They also note Russia's continued violation of SOLAS by disabling automatic identification systems. This confirms ongoing Russian naval activity and control of the Kerch Strait.
Military Operations
Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) Images (Confirmed): "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" provides multiple aerial images (04:57 UTC) of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), showing extensive destruction. The Russian Ministry of Defense declared the city liberated two days ago. These images confirm the significant damage inflicted during the battle for the city and highlight the ongoing urban warfare.
Russian Internal Developments
Military Pension Increase (Confirmed): TASS reports (05:03 UTC) that the State Duma will prioritize a bill for additional indexation of military pensions starting January 1, 2025. This suggests a focus on maintaining morale and support within the military and veteran community.
Propaganda and Morale
Historical Commemoration (Confirmed): "Басурин о главном" posts (04:41 UTC) a historical commemoration of Grigory Rechkalov, a Soviet WWII pilot and twice Hero of the Soviet Union. This is a standard propaganda tactic, invoking historical military achievements to boost morale and national pride.
Positive Messaging Amidst Conflict (Confirmed): "НгП раZVедка" posts (04:42 UTC) a message emphasizing hope and resilience during wartime, encouraging skill development and maintaining a positive attitude. This is a clear morale-boosting effort directed at Russian soldiers. An image of a devastated city is used, probably for propaganda purposes, showing off the destroyed city of the "enemy".
Profile of a Russian Sapper (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" shares (05:03 UTC) a video profiling Yefreytor Roman Menshinin, a Russian sapper, highlighting his service in Syria and Ukraine. This is a human-interest story intended to boost morale and portray Russian soldiers positively.
Overall Situation Assessment
The most significant changes are:
Confirmation and Details of Trump-Putin Communication: The confirmation of communication between Trump and Putin, along with Trump's stated intention to negotiate an end to the war and his pursuit of a resource deal with Ukraine, solidifies the emergence of a new and potentially impactful diplomatic channel.
Escalation and Expansion of Ukrainian Drone Attacks: The large-scale drone attacks across multiple regions of Russia, including the successful penetration to Leningrad Oblast, represent a major escalation and demonstration of Ukraine's growing long-range strike capabilities.
Continued Drone Activity Within Ukraine: The ongoing drone movements within Ukraine indicate a persistent threat across multiple regions, including the capital, Kyiv.
Ongoing Naval Presence and Missile Threat: The presence of "Kalibr"-equipped ships in the Black and Mediterranean Seas maintains a consistent threat of missile strikes against Ukraine.
Focus on Russian Military Morale: The Russian government's focus on increasing military pensions and the continued use of propaganda highlighting historical military achievements and individual soldier profiles indicate efforts to maintain morale and support within the military ranks.
Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)
Prioritize Air Defense Across Multiple Regions (Extremely High Priority): Given the demonstrated escalation of Ukrainian drone attacks across a wide geographic area, including deep into Russian territory, enhance air defense capabilities in all threatened regions. This includes:
Deploying additional air defense systems.
Improving radar coverage and early warning systems.
Increasing the readiness and responsiveness of air defense units.
Focusing on defending cities in Western Ukraine.
Investigate Ukrainian Drone Capabilities (Extremely High Priority): Gather intelligence on the types of drones used by Ukraine, their range, payload, and launch locations. This is critical for developing effective countermeasures.
Monitor and Analyze Trump-Putin Communication (High Priority): Continue to gather intelligence on the content and implications of the Trump-Putin communication. Assess the potential impact on the conflict and the possibility of any negotiated settlement, particularly in light of Trump's transactional approach.
Secure Critical Infrastructure (High Priority): Given the targeting of infrastructure (airports, potentially energy infrastructure), reinforce security measures at critical sites across Russia and occupied territories.
Maintain Naval Monitoring (High Priority): Continue close monitoring of Russian naval activity in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean, paying particular attention to "Kalibr" missile carriers and movements through the Kerch Strait.
Assess Impact of Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk Capture (Medium Priority): Analyze the strategic implications of the capture of Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk, including the impact on Ukrainian defenses and potential future Russian offensive operations.
Monitor Russian Internal Developments (Medium Priority): Continue to monitor internal developments within Russia, including economic indicators, social stability, and any signs of dissent or opposition.
Address all other recommendations: All previous recommendations remain valid, and will be addressed accordingly.
This updated analysis reflects the evolving and escalating nature of the conflict, with significant developments in drone warfare, diplomatic engagement, and internal Russian affairs. The situation demands continuous monitoring and adaptation of strategies to address the emerging threats and opportunities.
