Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 04:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 04:08 UTC, February 9)
Geopolitical Developments
Trump-Putin Communication on Ukraine (Reported): Multiple sources (ASTRA, TASS, NYP) report that Donald Trump claims to have spoken with Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump stated Putin "wants people to stop dying" and that he (Trump) has a plan, but provided no details. The timing of the conversation is unknown. TASS reports Trump refused to elaborate on the frequency of his communication with Putin. This is a potentially significant development, suggesting back-channel communication between the US (through Trump) and Russia regarding the conflict. It indicates a possible, albeit unconfirmed, avenue for negotiation. However, the lack of detail and Trump's reluctance to elaborate make it difficult to assess the substance or impact of these conversations.
Trump's offer to Ukraine (Reported): Reports show that Trump, in an offer to Ukraine, is willing to give a 500 million dollar deal to have access to resources in Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees.
Assessment: This is a significant statement indicating a preference for resource acquisition and deal-making over the provision of unconditional security guarantees.
Drone Movements in Ukraine (Confirmed, Ongoing)
Continued Drone Attacks, Shift in Trajectory (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force ("Повітряні Сили ЗС України") reports updated drone movements (04:36 UTC):
Drones in northern Rivne region, heading west.
Drones in northern Kyiv region, heading west.
Drones in western Chernihiv region, heading west.
Drones in Kyiv region north of Fastiv, heading towards Vasylkiv.
This confirms the continuation of the multi-directional drone attacks, but with a notable westward shift in trajectory. The concentration of drones heading west suggests a possible focus on targets in western Ukraine. The movement towards Vasylkiv, a city south of Kyiv, indicates a continued threat to the capital region.
Operational Activity Near Kursk (Claimed, Potential Propaganda)
Russian Special Forces ("Anvar") Claims Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment (Claimed): "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that Russian special forces ("Anvar") are destroying Ukrainian equipment in Sumy Oblast, preventing it from reaching the Kursk region (04:17 UTC). Claims include the destruction of "dozens" of vehicles, including cars, BMPs, tanks, and armored personnel carriers. This report should be treated with caution, as it comes from a pro-Russian source and lacks independent verification. However, if true, it would indicate a significant disruption of Ukrainian efforts to reinforce or launch operations in the Kursk region. The provided video shows some vehicles moving through a snowy area.
Assessment: Confirms a Russian stance of attacking potential Ukrainian assaults on Russian regions.
Russian Military Activities
Airspace Restrictions Lifted (Confirmed): Rosaviatsiya (Russian Federal Air Transport Agency) reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Pulkovo Airport (St. Petersburg) (04:26, 04:27, lifted at 04:35 UTC) and Volgograd Airport (lifted at 04:37 UTC) have been lifted. This suggests a brief period of heightened alert, possibly due to drone activity or other security concerns, but the situation has now returned to normal.
98th Airborne Division Actions (Reported): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports activities of the 98th Airborne Division (04:35 UTC):
Destruction of a "Leleka-100" drone near Chasiv Yar by a "Strela-10" air defense system.
Destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point near Chasiv Yar.
Ussuri paratroopers in the Kursk region border area are restoring and modernizing equipment.
Blood donations from soldiers for civilians.
"Two Majors" Summary (Mixed Reliability)
"Two Majors" Summary (04:28, 04:28 UTC): Provides a broad overview, including claims, analysis, and commentary. Key points:
Criticism of "beautiful reports" and premature claims of success, citing a Ukrainian counterattack in the Kursk region as an example. Accusations of a brigade commander being removed for a "beautiful report" and the need for neighboring units to cover the breakthrough.
Claims of ongoing problems in the Seversk direction (near Verkhnekamenskoye) and the area of Novoyehorivka in the LPR.
Acknowledges Russian successes in expanding bridgeheads on the right bank of the Oskol River in the northern Kupyansk direction and advances in the southern Pokrovsk direction.
Claims of continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, highlighting economic warfare.
States that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to slow down the Russian advance before possible negotiations.
Street Named After Vladlen Tatarsky (Confirmed)
Street Named After Vladlen Tatarsky (Maxim Fomin) (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" reports (04:33 UTC) that a street in Lyubertsy (Moscow Oblast) has been named after Vladlen Tatarsky (Maxim Fomin), a military blogger and fighter killed in a 2023 terrorist attack in St. Petersburg. This is a propaganda and morale-boosting effort, highlighting the glorification of pro-Russian military figures.
Overall Situation Assessment
The most significant developments are:
Reported Trump-Putin Communication: The reported conversations between Trump and Putin regarding the war in Ukraine, while lacking detail, introduce a new element into the geopolitical landscape. The potential for back-channel negotiations or influence is significant, but the lack of clarity necessitates caution.
Continued Drone Attacks with a Western Shift: The continued drone attacks remain a primary threat, with a notable westward shift in trajectory indicating a possible focus on targets in western Ukraine.
Potential Disruption of Ukrainian Operations Near Kursk (Claimed): The claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment in Sumy Oblast, if true, could impact Ukrainian capabilities in the Kursk region.
Criticism of Russian Military Command: The "Two Majors" summary highlights internal criticism of Russian military leadership, particularly regarding "beautiful reports" and premature claims of victory. This underscores potential issues with command and control, reporting accuracy, and overall operational effectiveness.
Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)
Investigate Trump-Putin Communication (High Priority): Attempt to gather intelligence on the nature, content, and timing of the reported Trump-Putin conversations. Assess the potential impact on the conflict and the possibility of any negotiated settlement.
Maintain High Alert for Drone Attacks, Focus on Western Ukraine (Extremely High Priority): Continue robust air defense measures, with a particular focus on western Ukraine given the observed shift in drone trajectories.
Verify Claims of Equipment Destruction Near Kursk (High Priority): Attempt to independently verify the claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment in Sumy Oblast. Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region.
Address Internal Russian Military Issues (Medium Priority): Monitor and analyze internal criticism of Russian military leadership. Assess the potential impact on operational effectiveness and morale.
Maintain Previous Recommendations: All previous recommendations remain highly relevant and should be actively pursued.
This document provides a comprehensive update on the military situation in Ukraine, integrating new information and offering actionable recommendations for enhancing strategic decision-making capabilities.
