Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 02:38 UTC

Major Updates (February 9, 02:08 - February 9, 02:38 UTC)

1. Continued Drone Activity, Shift Westward (High Priority):

   • Nikolaevsky Vanyok (02:10 UTC):
     • One drone north of Lutsk, threat by sound remains.
     • One drone that was heading to Rivne has moved further west, towards Shepetivka district.
   • Nikolaevsky Vanyok (02:31 UTC):
     • One drone west of Shepetivka, heading south.
     • One drone north of Rivne, heading towards Volyn Oblast.
     • One drone passed from Zhytomyr Oblast to Rivne Oblast.
     • One drone is circling in Belarus.
     • One drone is circling south of Slavutych.
     • Four new drones were detected, flying over Shostka and entering Chernihiv Oblast.
   • Assessment: The drone threat persists and is evolving. The westward and southward shift indicates potential new targets. The activity in Belarus and near Slavutych is concerning, given the proximity to the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. The four new drones from Shostka represent a new wave of attacks.

2. Explosions in Dubno, Rivne Oblast (Confirmed, High Priority):

   • TASS (02:14 UTC): Reports explosions in Dubno, Rivne Oblast.
   • RBC-Ukraine (02:19 UTC): Reports explosions heard again in Lutsk.
   • Assessment: Confirms continued attacks within Rivne Oblast. The repeated explosions in Lutsk indicate sustained pressure on the city's defenses.

3. Drone Interceptions in Voronezh, Russia (Confirmed):

   • TASS (02:11 UTC): Reports several drones destroyed in Voronezh Oblast.
   • Assessment: Indicates ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian territory, but with limited success in this instance.

4. Russian Artillery Strikes Near Kursk (Confirmed):

   • TASS (02:28 UTC): Video report claims an M-46 howitzer destroyed Ukrainian mortar positions near the border in Kursk Oblast.
   • Assessment: Corroborates earlier reports, and confirms the continued artillery and drone exchanges along the Kursk border region, showcasing the ongoing battles.

5. Ukrainian Attempted Breakthrough near Ulanok, Kursk - 6th of February(Confirmed):

   • Operation Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny (02:28 UTC): Displays video of the remains of one of the columns attempting to break through to Ulanok in the Kursk region.
   • Assessment: Provides visual confirmation of the situation that occurred on February 6.

6. Russian Advances Near Zaporizhzhia, Zelenivka, and Andriivka (Reported):

   • TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing DeepState (02:32 UTC): Reports Russian advances near Zaporizhzhia, Zelenivka, and Andriivka. Images were posted.
   • Assessment: Indicates continued localized Russian offensive operations, likely part of the broader effort to push towards key objectives in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

7. Russian Submarine Deep Dive Drills (Confirmed, Low Immediate Relevance):

   • Colonelcassad (02:35 UTC): Reports the "Magadan" submarine conducted a deep-dive drill near Kamchatka, reaching a depth of 240 meters.
   • Assessment: A routine training exercise with no immediate impact on the situation in Ukraine, but demonstrates Russian naval capabilities.

8. Cargo Ship Aground Near Sakhalin (Confirmed, Low Immediate Relevance):

   • TASS (02:37 UTC): Video report shows a cargo ship aground near Sakhalin, loaded with coal, fuel oil, and motor oil. No fuel leak detected.
   • Assessment: An environmental hazard with no direct military relevance, but a potential distraction for Russian resources.

9. Avalanche in Krasnoyarsk Krai (Confirmed, No Military Relevance):

   • TASS (02:23 UTC): Reports that traffic is limited on a road due to an avalanche.
   • Assessment: A natural event with no impact on the military situation.

10. Boris Akunin's Debt (Confirmed, No Military Relevance):

    • TASS (02:32 UTC): Reports Akunin's debt.
    • Assessment: A natural event with no impact on the military situation.

Updated Situation Summary

The situation remains focused on a complex and evolving drone attack across Ukraine:

• SUSTAINED AND EVOLVING DRONE ATTACK: Drone activity continues, with shifts westward and southward, indicating a widening range of potential targets. New drones have been detected, indicating a multi-wave attack.
• CONFIRMED STRIKES IN RIVNE OBLAST: Explosions have been confirmed in Dubno and repeatedly in Lutsk.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES: Reports indicate localized Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia, Zelenivka, and Andriivka areas.
• BORDER ACTIVITY: Artillery exchanges continue along the Kursk border.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA: Drones have been intercepted in Voronezh Oblast.

Updated Recommendations

1. Maintain EXTREME ALERT Across Western and Central Ukraine (Highest Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Air defense units must remain at maximum readiness across a broad area, given the shifting and evolving drone threat.
   • Prioritize tracking and engaging drones, with a focus on protecting critical infrastructure.
   • Rapid assessment teams must be prepared to respond after impacts.

2. Focus Air Defense on Rivne, Volyn, and Shepetivka Areas (High Priority):

   • Given the confirmed strikes and continued drone activity, concentrate air defense resources in these areas.
   • Monitor drone movements closely to anticipate potential targets.

3. Assess Damage in Dubno and Lutsk (High Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Determine the extent of damage from the explosions and identify any critical infrastructure impacted.
   • Assess the need for additional air defense resources and emergency response personnel.

4. Monitor Belarus and Slavutych Activity (High Priority):

   • The drone activity in Belarus and near Slavutych requires close monitoring, given the potential for escalation or unforeseen consequences.
   • Maintain communication with relevant authorities regarding the situation near Chernobyl.

5. Analyze Russian Advances (High Priority):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported Russian advances near Zaporizhzhia, Zelenivka, and Andriivka to assess their significance and potential impact on the overall situation.
   • Determine the scale of the advances and identify any vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defensive positions.

6. Maintain High Alert Along the Border (High Priority):

   • Continue to monitor the situation along the Kursk border, given the ongoing artillery exchanges.
   • Be prepared for potential incursions or further escalation.

7. All Previous Recommendations Regarding Drone and Air Defense Readiness Remain in Effect, with Adjusted Priorities: The highest priority remains addressing the ongoing and evolving drone attack, particularly in western and central Ukraine.