Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Major Updates (February 9, 01:38 - February 9, 02:08 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED Explosions in Lutsk (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Suspilne (01:38 UTC): Reports sounds resembling explosions in the vicinity of Lutsk.
   • Assessment: This confirms the drone threat to Lutsk, as previously assessed. It indicates either successful interceptions by air defense or impacts on targets. The precise nature and extent of damage are unknown at this time.

2. Massive Drone Attack on Western Ukraine CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Operation Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny (01:45 UTC): Reports a "massive attack" on Western Ukraine, with explosions and gunfire. Specific mentions of Rivne (under attack by multiple drones with numerous explosions), Lutsk, and Zhytomyr (explosions). Claims "long time since such a massive raid."
   • Assessment: Multiple sources confirm a significant and ongoing drone attack, the claim of a larger scale, as well as the westward movement.

3. Drone Activity Update - Continued Western Movement (High Priority):

   • Nikolaevsky Vanyok (01:52 UTC):
     • One drone approaching Lutsk.
     • One drone approaching Rivne.
     • Two drones passed Korosten, heading west.
     • Two drones in northern Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
   • Assessment: The ongoing drone activity towards Lutsk and Rivne, even after reported explosions, indicates a sustained attack. The westward movement in Kyiv Oblast continues to pose a threat.

4. Kyiv Air Raid Alert Lifted (Confirmed):

   • KMVA (02:02 UTC): Announces the end of the air raid alert in Kyiv.
   • RBC-Ukraine (02:03 UTC): Confirms the end of the air raid alert in Kyiv.
   • Assessment: While the immediate threat in Kyiv has passed, the situation remains volatile given the ongoing drone activity elsewhere, particularly in western Ukraine.

5. Russian FPV Drone Strike Confirmed (High Priority):

   • Colonelcassad (02:03 UTC): Video shows the destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank by a Russian FPV drone.
   • Assessment: Confirms the continued use of FPV drones by Russian forces, demonstrating their effectiveness in targeting and destroying Ukrainian armor. This has tactical implications for Ukrainian armored unit operations.

6. Air Raid Alert Status (02:06 UTC):

   • RBC-Ukraine (02:06 UTC): Provides an image of the current air raid alert map. Large areas of Ukraine, including the west, remain under alert.
   • Assessment: Confirms that the air raid threat remains widespread across the country.

7. Politically Related Updates (Low Military Relevance):

   • TASS (01:46 UTC, 01:48 UTC): Reports on financial matters involving gold withdrawals from the Bank of England and Trump revoking security clearances for Blinken and Sullivan.
   • Assessment: These events are political and do not have an immediate impact on the military situation in Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

The situation in Western Ukraine has dramatically escalated:

• CONFIRMED MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK: Multiple sources confirm a large-scale drone attack targeting Rivne, Lutsk, and Zhytomyr. Explosions have been reported in multiple locations.
• SUSTAINED DRONE THREAT: Drone activity continues, particularly towards Lutsk and Rivne, indicating a prolonged attack.
• KYIV ALERT LIFTED: The air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted, but the threat remains high in other areas.
• RUSSIAN FPV DRONE EFFECTIVENESS: Confirmed use of FPV drones for precision strikes against Ukrainian armor.

Updated Recommendations

1. Maintain EXTREME ALERT in Western Ukraine (Highest Priority, Immediate Action):
   • All air defense units in Rivne, Lutsk, and Zhytomyr must be at absolute maximum readiness.
   • Prioritize engagement of incoming drones and protection of critical infrastructure.
   • Rapid damage assessment teams should be prepared to deploy immediately after impacts.
2. Continue Monitoring Drone Activity (High Priority):
   • Track the movement of drones, particularly those heading west from Kyiv Oblast.
   • Maintain high alert for potential shifts in targets or new attack vectors.
3. Assess Damage in Lutsk and Rivne (High Priority, Immediate Action):
   • Determine the extent of damage from reported explosions and whether critical infrastructure was hit.
   • Identify any unmet needs for emergency response and air defense resources.
4. Analyze Russian FPV Drone Tactics (High Priority):
   • Study the video of the T-72 destruction to identify vulnerabilities and develop countermeasures.
   • Assess the potential for increased use of FPV drones by Russian forces and adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
5. Maintain High Alert Across Ukraine (High Priority):
   • Even in areas where alerts have been lifted, maintain a high level of vigilance.
   • The widespread nature of the attacks suggests the potential for further activity in unexpected locations.
6. All Previous Recommendations Related to Drone and Air Defense Readiness Remain in Effect (Modified Priorities): Previous recommendations regarding ballistic missile threats are downgraded to monitoring status, unless new launches are detected. The immediate priority is addressing the ongoing drone attack in western Ukraine.