Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 01:38 UTC
Major Updates (February 9, 01:08 - February 9, 01:38 UTC)
CONFIRMED Ballistic Missile Threat from Crimea (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Ukrainian Air Force (01:08 UTC): Confirms a ballistic missile threat originating from occupied Crimea.
RBC-Ukraine (01:08 UTC): Echoes the Ukrainian Air Force warning.
Assessment: This is a major escalation. Ballistic missiles are significantly faster and harder to intercept than drones. The origin from Crimea indicates a likely target in southern Ukraine. This takes precedence over all other threats.
Drone Update - Continued Westward Movement (High Priority):
Ukrainian Air Force (01:14 UTC): Provides an updated drone situation:
Drones north of Lutsk, heading west.
Drones in northern and southern parts of Rivne Oblast, heading west.
Drones in eastern and western parts of Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west.
Drones heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
Drones in the northern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
Drones in central and northern parts of Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
Guided bombs launched in Sumy and Donetsk regions.
Nikolaevsky Vanyok (01:25 UTC): Provides further drone updates:
Three drones from Rivne Oblast heading towards Lutsk.
Two drones north of Lutsk, anti-drone activity likely.
One drone north of Rivne, heading west.
One drone past Korosten, heading west.
One drone north of Berdychiv, heading west.
One drone from Zhytomyr Oblast departing into Belarus.
Three drones from Chernihiv Oblast moving to northern Kyiv Oblast.
One drone from Chernihiv Oblast departing into Belarus.
Assessment: The consistent westward movement of multiple drones, even after the ballistic missile threat, indicates a multi-pronged attack strategy. The drone movements towards Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv pose a significant threat. The departure of two drones into Belarus is unusual and requires monitoring. The guided bomb launches in Sumy and Donetsk are a separate, but simultaneous, threat.
Explosions in Odesa Confirmed (High Priority):
TASS (01:17 UTC): Reports explosions in Odesa (citing Ukrainian TV channel TSN).
Assessment: This corroborates earlier reports of air defense activity and the redirected drone threat. The explosions indicate either successful interceptions or impacts.
Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert Lifted (Confirmed):
Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (01:24 UTC): Announces the end of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia.
Nikolaevsky Vanyok (01:25 UTC): Confirms the ballistic threat is over.
Ukrainian Air Force (01:26 UTC): Officially lifts the ballistic missile threat.
RBC-Ukraine (01:27 UTC): Reports the end of the ballistic threat.
Assessment: While the immediate ballistic threat in Zaporizhzhia has passed, the situation remains volatile given the ongoing drone activity elsewhere.
ISW report (01:34):
RBC-Ukraine (01:34 UTC): Reports on a new publication by The Institute for the Study of War.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, recovering previous positions.
Russian advances were made near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk.
St. Petersburg Arrests (Irrelevant to Immediate Situation):
TASS (01:12 UTC): Reports the arrest of three St. Petersburg residents for defrauding Russian military contractors.
Assessment: This is an internal Russian matter and does not impact the current military situation in Ukraine.
Updated Situation Summary
The situation is extremely volatile and has escalated significantly:
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT: The confirmed ballistic missile threat from Crimea represents the highest priority danger. While the alert has been lifted, the potential for further launches remains high.
CONTINUED DRONE ATTACK: The widespread drone activity, particularly the westward movement, continues to pose a major threat across a wide area.
EXPLOSIONS IN ODESA: Confirmed explosions indicate the drone threat to Odesa was real.
ADVANCES:
Ukrainian: Near Chasiv Yar.
Russian: Near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk.
Updated Recommendations
Maintain EXTREME ALERT for Ballistic Missile Launches (Highest Priority, Immediate Action):Despite the lifted alert, the threat remains. All early warning systems and air defense units must remain at absolute maximum readiness for immediate response.
Prioritize Air Defense in Western Ukraine (High Priority, Immediate Action): The persistent westward movement of drones necessitates a continued focus on air defense in western regions, including Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv.
Assess Odesa Damage (High Priority, Immediate Action): Determine the extent of damage from the explosions in Odesa and whether any critical infrastructure was hit.
Monitor Belarus Border (High Priority): The reported departure of two drones into Belarus is unusual and warrants careful monitoring. Determine their purpose and whether they pose any future threat.
Respond to Guided Bomb Launches (High Priority): Address the threat from guided bombs in Sumy and Donetsk regions, using appropriate countermeasures.
Monitor Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk (High Priority): Given the new reports of Russian advances.
All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid (Modified Priorities): Previous recommendations related to the drone threat and general air defense readiness remain in effect, but the ballistic missile threat takes precedence.
