Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 17:38 UTC
Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 17:08 - 17:38 UTC)
IRIS-T SLS System (Confirmed, Details Revealed):
RBK-Ukraina: Publishes the first image of the IRIS-T SLS air defense system in Ukraine. Crucially, the image reveals that the launcher (with four missiles) is mounted on an Iveco Eurocargo 4x4 truck chassis. This confirms the deployment of this advanced short-range air defense system and provides specific details about its configuration in Ukraine. The use of a readily available truck chassis suggests an effort to enhance mobility and potentially expedite deployment.
Baltic Sea Cable Damage (Confirmed, Reactions):
Alex Parker Returns: Echoes earlier reports, stating, "It seems it has begun," suggesting a belief that the damage is a deliberate act of sabotage or aggression.
Operativniy ZSU: Also reports the damage, emphasizing that Rostelecom claims the incident did not impact subscribers. These reactions highlight the widespread concern that the incident is not accidental and could represent a new front in the conflict.
Propaganda and Internal News (Continued):
Dnevnik Desantnika: Dismisses reports of negotiations as a Western attempt to influence Russian morale. Claims the enemy is preparing forces for deployment in the Kursk and Krasnoarmeysk directions, and that everyone is waiting for the conflict to be over. This highlights the ongoing information war, with efforts to counter narratives perceived as weakening Russian resolve. Claims that there is no truth to the rumors spread about Konopel'ka and Fanaseevka. Claims that despite attempts by Ukrainian forces, which often end in casualities and retreat, Russian forces maintain an offensive posture and use air assets to neutralize Ukrainian troops.
Kotsnews: Publishes a poll result suggesting that 66% of respondents believe Zelensky wants to "trade Russian lands" in negotiations. Asserts that Russia will reclaim its territories by force. This is a clear example of propaganda designed to portray Zelensky as weak and willing to compromise on territory, while reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength and territorial integrity.
ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA: Is soliciting donations, claiming they are used to purchase quadcopters for the military. This highlights the ongoing reliance on crowdfunding to support military efforts, particularly for equipment like drones.
Alex Parker Returns: Shares a video showing what appears to be a Ukrainian man defacing property in Kurakhove. The man in the video has a walkie-talkie. Suggests strengthening security at Sheremetyevo Airport. This seems like a response to earlier statements about tightening security.
Colonelcassad: Shares the same update regarding the Russian refusal to pay to the UN.
Viktor Orban: Claims that Brussels has destroyed Europe, and that Europe is being overrun by migrants. He also claims European money is going to a "hopeless" war in Ukraine.
Dnevnik Desantnika: Shares image of their dinner.
Military Equipment and Logistics:
ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA: Shares an image of a soldier with a toy, wearing a military vest, with a 100 ruble bill.
Military Action:
BUTUSOV PLUS: Shares a video of a Russian mortar team being destroyed. This is likely meant to serve as an example and as a message of warning to Russian troops.
Poddubny: Shares a video of destruction. Claims Ukrainian infantry are often targeted by drones when out in the open.
Drone Warfare (Multiple Developments):
Operativniy ZSU: Shares video of the commander of the "Black Swan" group, who was named a Full Knight of the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytskyi.
STERNENKO: Claims to have destroyed 3 cars, 1 quad bike, and "many" more.
STERNENKO: Shares drone footage.
Moscow Fire:
TASS: The fire on the former Moscow electric factory has been contained.
Updated Situation Summary
Confirmed Sabotage Concerns: The widespread reaction to the Baltic Sea cable damage, coupled with Alex Parker Returns' comment, suggests a growing belief that the incident represents deliberate sabotage, potentially expanding the conflict's scope beyond Ukraine's borders.
Advanced Air Defense Deployment: The confirmation of the IRIS-T SLS system in Ukraine, along with details of its configuration, is a significant development, enhancing Ukraine's air defense capabilities against short-range threats.
Intense Information War: The ongoing propaganda battle continues, with efforts to shape narratives around negotiations, territorial integrity, and the enemy's intentions. The use of crowdfunding to support military efforts is also highlighted.
Claims of success from both sides.
Continued Drone Warfare
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority). Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod. Respond to the new Russian advance. Reinforce Defenses Around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka (Extremely High Priority). Counter Russian Advances in the Lyman Direction (High Priority). Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Address Draft Avoidance (Medium Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Assess and Respond to General Staff Report (High Priority). Maintain Information War. Counter Russian Advances Near Kupyansk (High Priority). Investigate Reported Assassination Attempt (High Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Extremely High Priority). Verify Dvurichna-Zapadne claims. Verify Sudzha-Zazulyovka claims. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Russian Claims in Kursk Region (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to the Kharkiv Explosion (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Reported Russian Advances in Kurakhove Direction (High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense and Drone Successes (High Priority). Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles). Verify Vyshneve Claims (Verify the claim of the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade to have destroyed enemy equipment and personnel). Address Pokrovsk Spending. Maintain Information War. Verify Moscow Fire Cause (Low Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Zaporizhzhia and Kursk). Assess Impact of Equipment Delivery (Zaporizhzhia). Monitor Lyman Direction (High Priority). Investigate Conflicting Claims on Su-25 Downing (Extremely High Priority). Address Pokrovsk Spending. Evaluate effectiveness of newly obtained technologies. Exploit POW Information (High Priority). Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Conflicting Claims Regarding Mi-8 (Extremely High Priority). Assess Impact of Improved Artillery Shell Ratio (High Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Investigate Sribne Situation (High Priority). Prepare for Potential Impact of Genomic Registration (Low Priority). Address and respond to Nikopol attacks. Provide assistance to civilians and reinforce the protection of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing power outages. Address the Kyiv smoke incident. Investigate Baltic Sea Cable Damage (Extremely High Priority). Monitor Sumy Region (High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (High Priority). Prepare for Increased Attacks on Russian Territory. Exploit claims of friendly fire.
Assess IRIS-T SLS Deployment (High Priority): Analyze the implications of the IRIS-T SLS deployment, including its potential impact on air defense coverage, vulnerability to Russian countermeasures, and optimal deployment strategies.
Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles).
Exploit Kurakhove video: Use the video to reinforce messages regarding ongoing resistance.
