Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 17:08 UTC
Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 16:38 - 17:08 UTC)
Moscow Fire (Ongoing, Investigation Launched):
ASTRA: Confirms the fire at the former Moscow electrical factory, with the area reaching 800 square meters. 120 people evacuated themselves, and 90 were evacuated. Some people escaped by breaking windows. The fire reportedly started in a gym on the second floor. A skate park, dance studio, and repair shops were also located in the building. Electrical malfunction is suspected as the cause.
TASS: The Investigative Committee has launched a criminal case for providing unsafe services in connection with the fire.
STERNENKO: Shares images and videos.
Novosti: Reports violations.
These updates confirm the ongoing firefighting efforts, the scale of the fire, and the likely cause being an electrical fault. The launch of a criminal investigation, even with an accidental cause likely, is standard procedure in such large-scale incidents.
Bryansk Region (Air Defense Activity - Confirmed):
AV BogomaZ: Reports that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed a Ukrainian fixed-wing UAV over the Bryansk region. No casualties or damage were reported. This indicates continued Ukrainian attempts to target Russian territory, even if unsuccessful.
Baltic Sea (Cable Damage - Confirmed):
TASS: Confirms damage to a Rostelecom cable in the Baltic Sea due to "external influence." Rostelecom states that the damage did not affect subscribers and that repair work is underway. This is a significant development, raising the possibility of sabotage targeting critical infrastructure. The location and nature of the "external influence" require further investigation.
Drone Warfare (Multiple Developments):
MoD Russia: Claims the destruction of two Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the Kursk border area by a Russian engineer unit using drone ramming tactics. Provides video evidence. This reinforces the narrative of intense drone warfare and highlights a specific Russian counter-drone tactic.
Operativniy ZSU: Showcases a destroyed "Grad" system (video). Shows a concentration of destroyed Russian equipment (video). Shows drone attacks of the 90th Tank Division, claims to have driven into Russian soldiers (video).
WarGonzo: Claims Russian forces blocked a Ukrainian unit inside their own dugout in the Kharkiv direction (video).
Operativni ZSU, RBK-Ukraina: Both report a Russian drone attack on a civilian production facility in Shostka (Sumy region). No casualties were initially reported.
Sili Oboroni: Claims a Russian boat has been destroyed (video).
Propaganda and Internal News:
Alex Parker Returns: Claims an increase in "Russian fascism," citing Mizulina's proposal to tighten migration legislation and deport migrants who break the law. Provides video evidence. Comments on the evacuation of the Su-25 pilot, claiming minor injuries to the Mi-8.
Dnevnik Desantnika: Reports on the upcoming Defender of the Fatherland Day and discussions about potential negotiations.
Dva Mayora: Claims that USAID spent 10% of its budget on Ukraine, amounting to $4 billion for 11,000 NGO employees working on 115 programs. Provides examples of USAID-funded projects in Ukraine, suggesting that they were aimed at influencing public opinion. Shares an interview of a Russian marine (video).
Tsaplienko_UkraineFights: Reports that Hungary opposes continued financial assistance to Ukraine, citing Orban's statement that European funds are going to a "hopeless war" and that Europe is being overrun by migrants.
Kotsnews: Shares satire about Musk's statement about Trump.
Basurin: Claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have set up a network of underground tunnels near Chasiv Yar, comparing them to a metro system (video).
Military Equipment and Logistics:
Colonelcassad: Reports the delivery of fixed-wing UAVs to the Donetsk direction.
Military Action:
Colonelcassad: Reports on forced conscription in Kharkiv.
Geopolitical:
TASS: Reports that the Russian government has decided not to pay its contribution to the UN Economic Commission for Europe for 2024.
RBK-Ukraina: Reports that Syrskyi has stated that attacks on military facilities in Russia will increase.
Updated Situation Summary
Intense Fighting Continues: The situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting, confirmed drone attacks, and claimed Russian advances.
Drone Warfare Dominates: The conflict's reliance on drone warfare for reconnaissance, attack, and counter-drone measures is confirmed, with increased activity and diverse tactics being employed.
Civilian Casualties: The shelling of Nikopol and the escalating fire in Moscow highlight the continued threat to civilians.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia's refusal to pay its UN contribution and the reported damage to the Rostelecom cable in the Baltic Sea indicate a further deterioration in relations with international bodies and potential escalation of conflict beyond Ukraine's borders. Hungary's opposition to further aid to Ukraine highlights divisions within Europe.
Information War Intensifies: Propaganda and information warfare remain prevalent, with both sides making claims and counterclaims to influence public opinion and justify their actions.
Potential Sabotage: The confirmed damage to the Rostelecom cable raises serious concerns about potential sabotage targeting critical infrastructure, potentially expanding the conflict's scope.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority). Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod. Respond to the new Russian advance. Reinforce Defenses Around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka (Extremely High Priority). Counter Russian Advances in the Lyman Direction (High Priority). Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Address Draft Avoidance (Medium Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Assess and Respond to General Staff Report (High Priority). Maintain Information War. Counter Russian Advances Near Kupyansk (High Priority). Investigate Reported Assassination Attempt (High Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Extremely High Priority). Verify Dvurichna-Zapadne claims. Verify Sudzha-Zazulyovka claims. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Russian Claims in Kursk Region (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to the Kharkiv Explosion (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Reported Russian Advances in Kurakhove Direction (High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense and Drone Successes (High Priority). Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles). Verify Vyshneve Claims (Verify the claim of the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade to have destroyed enemy equipment and personnel). Address Pokrovsk Spending. Maintain Information War. Verify Moscow Fire Cause (Low Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Zaporizhzhia and Kursk). Assess Impact of Equipment Delivery (Zaporizhzhia). Monitor Lyman Direction (High Priority). Investigate Conflicting Claims on Su-25 Downing (Extremely High Priority). Address Pokrovsk Spending. Evaluate effectiveness of newly obtained technologies. Exploit POW Information (High Priority). Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Conflicting Claims Regarding Mi-8 (Extremely High Priority). Assess Impact of Improved Artillery Shell Ratio (High Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Investigate Sribne Situation (High Priority). Prepare for Potential Impact of Genomic Registration (Low Priority). Address and respond to Nikopol attacks. Provide assistance to civilians and reinforce the protection of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing power outages. Address the Kyiv smoke incident.
Investigate Baltic Sea Cable Damage (Extremely High Priority): Thoroughly investigate the cause and extent of the damage to the Rostelecom cable in the Baltic Sea. Determine if it was sabotage, and if so, identify the perpetrator. This has significant implications for regional security and potential escalation.
Monitor Sumy Region (High Priority): Given the confirmed drone attack on Shostka, increase surveillance and air defense measures in the Sumy region to protect critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (High Priority): Continue to publicize Ukrainian successes in downing Russian aircraft and drones, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian defenses and potentially deterring future Russian air operations.
Prepare for Increased Attacks on Russian Territory: Given the confirmed air defense activity in Bryansk and Syrskyi's statement, prepare for increased attacks on Russian territory.
Exploit claims of friendly fire: Publicize and investigate claims of the 90th tank division, to undermine the morale of Russian troops.
