Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 16:38 UTC
Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 16:09 - 16:38 UTC)
Moscow Fire (Continued Escalation, Casualties Confirmed):
TASS: Reports the fire at the former Moscow electrical factory has increased to 800 square meters, with five people injured. The source of the fire was reportedly on the 2nd floor, spreading through wooden structures.
Operatsiya Z: Provides video footage of the fire, claiming dozens of adults and children from a dance competition are trapped inside. 90 people have been rescued, and 120 evacuated themselves. Some people are reportedly escaping through windows. Carbon monoxide poisoning is reported among the injured. The fire's alert level has been raised to 3. The Investigative Committee has launched an investigation.
These updates confirm the fire's rapid escalation, increased casualties, and the presence of children among the victims. The involvement of the Investigative Committee suggests a potential criminal investigation, even though preliminary reports point to electrical issues.
Zaporizhzhia Region (Artillery Shell Ratio):
RBK-Ukraina: Cites Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stating that the ratio of artillery shells used by Ukrainian and Russian forces has decreased from approximately 1:10 a year ago to almost 1:2.
This is a significant claim, suggesting a substantial improvement in Ukraine's access to artillery ammunition, potentially due to increased Western aid or improved domestic production.
STERNENKO: Claims the downing of a Russian "Molniya" kamikaze drone by a Ukrainian special unit ("Sokil"). Provides video evidence.
Operativniy ZSU: Showcases combat operations of the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade "Ghost of Kyiv."
ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA: Shows artillery fire, stating, "Drones are drones, but the 'Gods of War' are still in service and continue to terrify the enemy." Provides video evidence.
Dva Mayora: Claims that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter, equipped with a "Nabat" drone detector, successfully evaded Ukrainian FPV drone attacks during an evacuation mission for a downed Su-25 pilot near Zaitseve (Toretsk direction). The pilot was reportedly rescued. Provides video and photographic evidence. This directly contradicts earlier reports of the helicopter being damaged or destroyed.
DeepState: Claims Ukrainian forces (28th Mechanized Brigade and 57th Separate Territorial Defense Battalion) shot down a Russian Su-25 on the eastern outskirts of Horlivka. Reports that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter later arrived at the crash site with an infantry group. The helicopter was reportedly targeted but not downed, and it fled, leaving the infantry group behind.
Operatsiya Z: Claims a Russian Su-25 was shot down by the enemy near Zaitseve (Toretsk direction). Reports that a rescue group arrived on a Mi-8 helicopter, which was attacked by three FPV drones but was not hit and was able to leave with the rescued pilot.
These updates showcase the continued intensity of drone warfare, with both sides making conflicting claims about successes and losses. The conflicting reports surrounding the Su-25 downing and the Mi-8 rescue mission are particularly significant.
Shelling in Makeevka (Confirmed):
TASS: Confirms that a residential district in the DPR was shelled, with no mention of military equipment or personnel in the area. The Russian Investigative Committee has documented the consequences of the shelling.
Propaganda and Internal News:
Alex Parker Returns: Claims that due to the closure of USAID, "all others" will soon be gone. Shares a photo message.
Tsaplienko_UkraineFights: Reports on a student chemist who threw a Molotov cocktail at an FSB building in Putin's hometown, allegedly after being scammed and then coerced by supposed Ukrainian special services.
Colonelcassad: Publishes an article on errors in triage (medical sorting) in both civilian settings and the special military operation zone, citing historical examples and highlighting issues with training and standardized protocols.
Alex Parker Returns: Comments on Wagner PMC, stating that Putin made a mistake by not sending the remaining Wagner forces to Syria, which could have helped maintain Assad's power.
Dnevnik Desantnika: Reports that Putin has instructed the government to consider mandatory genomic registration of military personnel in the special military operation zone by July 1, 2025. This is allegedly to facilitate the identification of "missing" soldiers.
Tsaplienko_UkraineFights: Claims that Russian Captain Nagayko was killed by a homemade explosive device in a package.
Starshe Eddy: Reports that a street in the Lyubertsy urban district has been named after war correspondent Maxim Fomin (Vladlen Tatarsky), who was killed in a terrorist attack.
Colonelcassad: Shows an animated map of Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory between February 7-8, 2025.
Kyiv Church Incident:
RBK-Ukraina: Reported smoke in the Saint Michael's Vydubychi Monastery church.
Military Equipment and Logistics
Voyin DV: Asks companies if they have 3mm thick leftover metal to produce dynamic protection lids.
Butusov Plus: A fundraiser is announced for 42nd Mechanized Brigade "PERUN" to buy a Volkswagen Transporter 4x4.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports on a meeting with the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, discussing Ukraine's defense needs and the reform of the troop management system.
Military action
Slivochnyy kapriz: Reports about active military operations in the Krasnoarmiisk - Sribne area, including a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions in Sribne and Russian advances in the residential area of Sribne.
Geopolitical:
RBK-Ukraina: Greece and France discussed the possible sale of Meteor missiles to Turkey.
Updated Situation Summary
Intense Fighting Continues: Confirmed reports indicate continued fighting, particularly around the Kursk and Zaporizhzhia regions, and near Toretsk.
Drone Warfare Dominates: Drone warfare remains a central feature of the conflict, with both offensive and counter-drone measures being employed. Conflicting claims of success in downing aircraft and drones are prevalent.
Russian Advances (Reported): Reported Russian advances in the Sribne residential area.
Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (Conflicting Claims): Ukrainian forces claim the downing of a Russian Su-25, but there are conflicting reports regarding the fate of the pilot and the rescue helicopter.
Civilian Casualties: The shelling of Makeevka and the escalating fire in Moscow highlight the continued threat to civilians.
Geopolitical Developments: Discussions surrounding a potential sale of Meteor missiles to Turkey are ongoing. Ukraine continues to engage with NATO, requesting further support and highlighting the need for increased military aid.
Information War Intensifies: Both sides are actively using propaganda and information warfare tactics, making claims and counterclaims to influence public opinion and bolster morale.
Improved Artillery Shell Ratio: Claims of an improvement in the artillery shell ratio in favor of Ukraine indicate a potential shift in the balance of power on the battlefield.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority). Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod. Respond to the new Russian advance. Reinforce Defenses Around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka (Extremely High Priority). Counter Russian Advances in the Lyman Direction (High Priority). Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Address Draft Avoidance (Medium Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Assess and Respond to General Staff Report (High Priority). Maintain Information War. Counter Russian Advances Near Kupyansk (High Priority). Investigate Reported Assassination Attempt (High Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Extremely High Priority). Verify Dvurichna-Zapadne claims. Verify Sudzha-Zazulyovka claims. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Russian Claims in Kursk Region (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to the Kharkiv Explosion (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Reported Russian Advances in Kurakhove Direction (High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense and Drone Successes (High Priority). Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles). Verify Vyshneve Claims (Verify the claim of the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade to have destroyed enemy equipment and personnel). Address Pokrovsk Spending.
Maintain Information War: Discredit any attempts by the opposing side to portray a friendly and/or humanitarian stance towards Ukrainian soldiers.
Verify Moscow Fire Cause (Low Priority): While likely unrelated to the conflict, verifying the cause of the Moscow fire could rule out any potential sabotage or external involvement.
Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Zaporizhzhia and Kursk): Given the confirmed use of drone detectors and successful drone strikes in these regions, prioritizing counter-drone measures is crucial to protect both troops and equipment.
Assess Impact of Equipment Delivery (Zaporizhzhia): Analyze the impact of the newly delivered equipment, particularly the UAV complexes, on Ukrainian capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Monitor Lyman Direction (High Priority): Given the confirmed Russian advances, closely monitor the situation around Yampolivka and Terny, assessing the potential for further Russian gains.
Investigate Conflicting Claims on Su-25 Downing (Extremely High Priority): Thoroughly investigate the conflicting claims regarding the Su-25 downing near Toretsk. Verify the pilot's status, the success or failure of the rescue mission, and the fate of any Russian personnel involved. This is crucial for understanding the effectiveness of both Ukrainian air defense and Russian rescue capabilities.
Address Pokrovsk Spending: Address the alleged misallocation of funds in Pokrovsk.
Evaluate effectiveness of newly obtained technologies: Assess the effectiveness of the French and Dutch technologies to further optimize their uses.
Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze the statements made by returning Russian POWs to gain insights into their morale, treatment in captivity, and potential recruitment issues within the Russian military. This information can be used to refine information warfare strategies.
Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Zelensky has mentioned preparations for a new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). Respond to the escalation of conflict, and prepare for a larger army.
Address the Humanitarian Crisis: Prioritize addressing the humanitarian crisis in Makeevka.
Maintain Information War: Counter Russian information campaigns and publicize the heavy losses.
Verify and Respond to Conflicting Claims Regarding Mi-8 (Extremely High Priority): Determine the truth behind the conflicting reports of the Mi-8 helicopter's fate. Was it damaged, destroyed, or did it successfully evacuate the pilot? This has significant implications for Russian search and rescue capabilities.
Assess Impact of Improved Artillery Shell Ratio (High Priority): If the reported improvement in the artillery shell ratio for Ukraine is accurate, analyze its potential impact on the battlefield. This could lead to a shift in tactics and operational planning.
Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority): Given the apparent effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations (despite conflicting claims), continue to prioritize and refine drone warfare tactics, including both offensive strikes and counter-drone measures.
Investigate Sribne Situation (High Priority): Verify the claims of Russian advances in the Sribne residential area and assess the implications for the broader conflict.
Prepare for Potential Impact of Genomic Registration (Low Priority): Monitor developments regarding Russia's potential implementation of mandatory genomic registration for military personnel, assessing its potential impact on identification of casualties and potential ethical concerns.
Address and respond to Nikopol attacks: Provide assistance to civilians and reinforce the protection of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing power outages.
Address the Kyiv smoke incident: Determine if the source of the smoke is natural, due to military action, or due to technical error.
