Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 14:09 - 14:38 UTC)

1. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Report (16:00 UTC, February 8, 2025):

   • 60 Combat Clashes: Reported since the beginning of the day.
   • Russian Attacks: Continued assaults on Ukrainian positions, with significant losses inflicted on Russian forces.
   • Sumy Region Shelling: Border settlements of Bila Bereza and Chuikivka shelled from Russian territory.
   • Kharkiv Direction: Two attacks repelled near Vovchansk.
   • Kupyansk Direction: Three assaults near Petropavlivka and Zahryzove.
   • Lyman Direction: Four attacks near Nove, Novoiehorivka, and Yampolivka.
   • Kramatorsk Direction: Three attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora repelled; airstrike near Makove.
   • Toretsk Direction: Four attacks near Krymske and Toretsk; airstrikes on Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.
   • Pokrovsk Direction: 17 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian defenders; 12 attacks repelled, five ongoing.
   • Novopavlivsk Direction: Five attacks near Kostiantynopil; two ongoing.
   • Huliaipil Direction: One attack, supported by aviation, towards Novopil; airstrikes on Huliaipil and Novodarivka.
   • Orikhiv Direction: Airstrike on Olhivske.
   • Siversk, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovsk Directions: No offensive actions reported.
   • Kursk Region: 15 Russian attacks repelled, six ongoing; 18 airstrikes, 26 guided aerial bombs, and 309 artillery strikes.
   • Other Fronts: No significant changes.

   • *This report confirms intense fighting across multiple fronts, with a particular focus on the Pokrovsk direction.  It highlights continued Russian air activity and artillery shelling, particularly in the Kursk region from the Ukrainian perspective.*
     

2. Dzerzhynske Direction (Confirmed Russian Advances):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika: Reports that the 1st, 9th, and 132nd Brigades of the 51st Army have pushed Ukrainian forces out of Dzerzhynsk, Druzhba, and Krymske. Cleanup and demining operations are underway. Fighting continues at the spoil tips of the Toretska mine near the treatment facilities. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Kostiantynivka, aiming to encircle the city from the south, with 10 km remaining. A map is provided showing the claimed Russian control of these areas.
   • This represents a significant Russian advance, further tightening the pressure on Toretsk and potentially threatening Kostiantynivka. The reported demining operations suggest a consolidation of control over the captured settlements.

3. Ukrainian FPV Drone Eliminates Russian Group:

   • TASS: Reports that FPV drones from the "Sever" troop group destroyed a group of Ukrainian infantry in the Kharkiv region, thwarting a rotation.

4. Lyman Direction (Confirmed Fighting):

   • Rybar: Reports continued Russian advances along the left bank of the Zherebets River towards Torske. Fighting is confirmed in Yampolivka, with Russian troops reportedly in the central part of the village. Intense fighting is also reported near Kolodyazi on the opposite bank of the Zherebets. A map is provided.
   • This corroborates earlier reports and confirms the ongoing Russian offensive effort in the Lyman direction.

5. Drone Warfare:

   • Colonelcassad: Reports that "VDV Ikvody" (likely referring to airborne forces using drones) destroyed a Ukrainian Tunguska-M anti-aircraft system in the Kursk direction. A video is provided.
   • MoD Russia: Reports on scouts of the 47th Tank Division, 1st Tank Army (Zapad Group of Forces) using creative methods to disable enemy drones. A video shows a drone disabling another drone.
   • These reports emphasize the continuing importance of drone warfare, both for attack and counter-drone operations.

6. Draft Avoidance (Reported):

   • Colonelcassad, NGP Razvedka: Share a video of a man from Odessa demonstrating how he hides from the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs).
   • This highlights the ongoing issue of draft avoidance in Ukraine.

7. Humanitarian Crisis (Reported):

   • RBK-Ukraine: Reports a worsening humanitarian crisis in occupied Donetsk region, with houses lacking water.

Updated Situation Summary

• Intense Fighting Across Multiple Fronts: The General Staff report confirms ongoing heavy fighting, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces are making confirmed advances in the Dzerzhynske and Lyman directions.
• Significant Russian Advances: The reported capture of Dzerzhynsk, Druzhba, and Krymske, along with advances in Yampolivka, represent significant Russian gains.
• Continued Drone Warfare: Both sides continue to utilize drones extensively, for attack, reconnaissance, and counter-drone operations.
• Draft Avoidance Issue: The video of the man from Odessa highlights the persistent challenge of draft avoidance in Ukraine.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Occupied Donetsk region is facing a crisis.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority). Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod. Respond to the new Russian advance.

• Reinforce Defenses Around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka (Extremely High Priority): Given the confirmed Russian advances in the Dzerzhynske direction, urgently reinforce defenses around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka to prevent further encirclement.

• Counter Russian Advances in the Lyman Direction (High Priority): Deploy reinforcements and conduct counterattacks to slow or halt the Russian advance in the Yampolivka and Kolodyazi areas.

• Address the Humanitarian Crisis: Provide aid to Donetsk residents.

• Address Draft Avoidance (Medium Priority): While a complex issue, explore strategies to address draft avoidance and ensure adequate manpower for the armed forces. This might involve improved communication, addressing concerns, or stricter enforcement.

• Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority): Continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance, attack, and counter-drone operations, focusing on disrupting Russian logistics and command and control.

• Assess and Respond to General Staff Report (High Priority): Analyze the specific areas of intense fighting reported by the General Staff and adjust deployments and strategies accordingly. Pay particular attention to the Pokrovsk direction.

• Maintain Information War: Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment and vehicles.