Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 14:08 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 13:39 - 14:08 UTC)

1. Confirmed Su-25 Downing (Toretsk Direction, Confirmed, High Impact):

   • RBK-Ukraine, Operativny ZSU, Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, Sternenko: Multiple sources confirm the downing of a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the Toretsk direction by the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Images of the destroyed aircraft are provided. Video confirmation is promised.
   • This represents a significant Ukrainian success, reducing Russian air support capabilities in a critical area. It will likely boost Ukrainian morale and serve as a propaganda victory.

2. Continued Reports of Makeevka Shelling Aftermath (Donetsk Region, Confirmed, High Impact, Ongoing):

   • ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Mash na Donbasse, Operatsiya Z, Poddubny, WarGonzo, Dnevnik Desantnika: Multiple sources continue to report on the aftermath of the Makeevka shelling, confirming the death of a young woman and injuries to at least 10 people, including a child. Damage to residential buildings and 15 cars is confirmed. The target is consistently reported as a bus station.
   • This reinforces the severity of the incident and its impact on the civilian population.

3. Air Activity (Multiple Locations, Confirmed, Ongoing):

   • Ukrainian Air Force: Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions. Launches of guided aerial bombs are reported in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions.
   • This suggests continued Russian air operations, including the use of guided munitions.

4. Geopolitical Developments:

   • RBK-Ukraine: Reports that the ICC prosecutor, who issued an arrest warrant for Putin, has been sanctioned by Trump.
   • Sever.Realii: Reports that at least 2600 people were killed and over 14,000 were injured in 2024 as a result of attacks on civilian infrastructure, according to CIT.
   • TASS: Reports that the Hamburg Land Court banned Tagesspiegel from spreading false statements about Alisher Usmanov.

5. Drone attack on Belgorod

   • TASS: Reports that a Ukrainian drone attacked a truck in Shelaevo, Belgorod region, injuring a man.

6. Syria

• TASS: Reports that Israeli Air Force fighters struck a Hamas weapons depot in southern Syria.

7. Russian advance
   • Colonelcassad: Reports that Russian forces are increasing their rate of advance, and moving 6.8 km² per day.

Updated Situation Summary

• Confirmed Su-25 Downing: The confirmed downing of a Russian Su-25 in the Toretsk direction is a significant tactical victory for Ukraine.
• Makeevka Shelling Aftermath: The situation in Makeevka remains critical, with confirmed civilian casualties and significant damage to infrastructure.
• Continued Air Activity: Russian air operations continue, with reported launches of guided aerial bombs.
• Belgorod: A Ukrainian drone has attacked a vehicle.
• Russian advance: The rate of advance of Russian troops has increased.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority).

• Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority):

  • Disseminate confirmed information (images, pending video) to boost morale and reinforce the narrative of Ukrainian success.
  • Analyze the tactics used to down the aircraft to refine air defense strategies.
  • Assess the impact on Russian air operations in the Toretsk area.

• Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority):

  • Continue to monitor for enemy air activity, particularly in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions.
  • Ensure air defense systems are operational and ready to respond to guided aerial bomb attacks.

• Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority):

  • Continue to gather information on casualties and damage.
  • Provide humanitarian assistance to affected civilians.
  • Investigate the incident to determine responsibility.

• Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod:

  • Confirm information on casualties and damage.
  • Provide aid to anyone injured.
  • Investigate the incident to determine the type of drone and where it was launched from.

• Respond to the new Russian advance:

  • Assess the new rate of advance of Russian forces.
  • Adjust troop deployments to respond to the new situation.