Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 13:38 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 13:08 - 13:38 UTC)

1. Makeevka Shelling Casualties Confirmed and Increased (Donetsk Region, Confirmed, High Impact, Ongoing):

   • TASS: Confirms a young woman was killed and at least 10 people, including a child, were injured in the Makeevka shelling. Debris from an intercepted Ukrainian missile reportedly fell in the Central City district, damaging apartment buildings and 15 cars.
   • Operatsiya Z: Reports a Ukrainian strike on a bus station in central Makeevka, resulting in the death of a young woman and injuries to a woman and child. A powerful explosion occurred, causing a large plume of smoke. A shell also hit an apartment building near a multi-functional center (MFC), damaging neighboring buildings.
   • Provides multiple images and videos depicting the aftermath, including a damaged bus, a burning building, and emergency responders treating casualties.
   • Mash na Donbasse: Reports ten people were injured, including a child, and that parts of a shot-down missile fell in central Makiivka, damaging houses and 15 cars.
   • Basurin o glavnom, WarGonzo, Poddubny: Confirms earlier reports.
   • This confirms a significant escalation of the shelling in Makeevka, with higher casualty numbers and widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. The targeting of a bus station and residential buildings raises serious concerns about potential violations of international humanitarian law.

2. Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeiskoe) Direction Fighting (Donetsk Region, Reported, Ongoing):

   • Voenkor Kotenok: Reports Ukrainian forces counterattacked along the T-0406 road and managed to gain a foothold in the southern part of Kotlino. Russian forces maintain control of the railway ("Zhelezka"). Ukrainian attempts to break into the center of Peschanoe have been unsuccessful. Reports continued fighting for Udachnoe, near the station and towards mine #1, with both sides counterattacking. Fighting continues in the Novosergievka area and near Chunishino - Novoukrainka - crossroads north of Zelenoe. An increase in Ukrainian artillery fire and drone use is noted.
   • Provides a map of the area.
   • Dnevnik Desantnika: Reports ongoing fighting northwest of Kotlino and near Udachnoe. Russian artillery is targeting Ukrainian positions to prepare for further advances. Ukrainian reinforcements are being targeted with artillery and drones. Russian forces are expanding control in the Tarasovka area.
   • Provides a map of the area.
   • This indicates continued intense fighting around several key settlements and strategic points, with both sides actively engaging and contesting territory. The situation is fluid.

3. Kursk Region Fighting (Confirmed, Ongoing):

   • Colonelcassad: Provides an official report from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
     • Russian forces reportedly repelled a Ukrainian attack and inflicted losses on multiple Ukrainian units.
     • Ukrainian forces are reportedly losing equipment and personnel.
     • Russia claims that the operation to destroy Ukrainian forces is ongoing.
   • This confirms continued, large-scale fighting in the Kursk region, with substantial losses claimed by the Russian MoD.

4. Drone and Air Warfare (Multiple Locations, Confirmed, Ongoing):

   • Operativny ZSU: The Ukrainian Armed Forces are enhancing countermeasures against guided aerial bombs (KABs) through the deployment of advanced hardware/software complexes and electronic warfare (EW) systems.
   • Reports that the range of DeepStrike attacks into Russia has reached 1,700 km. 377 military targets have been hit this year.
   • Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights: Reports that mobile fire groups equipped with lasers to shoot down "Shahed" drones will soon be available, citing the Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Sukharevsky.
   • Operativny ZSU: Sirsky reports that mobile fire groups equipped with lasers to shoot down "Shahed" drones will soon be available.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports that the 28th Brigade shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the Toretsk direction. More details and video are promised later.
   • Provides a photo of a destroyed Su-25.
   • Sternenko: Confirms earlier reports of a downed Russian Su-25.
   • Voin DV: Releases video claiming to show drone operations by the "Gnom" detachment of the 143rd motorized rifle regiment of the "Vostok" group. The video reportedly shows drone attacks on bunkers and the demining of roads, and an FPV drone allegedly shooting down a Ukrainian "Baba-Yaga" drone.
   • TASS: Aircrews of Russian Su-35s detected and, presumably, destroyed Ukrainian air defense targets in the Kursk region.
   • Colonelcassad: Another video of destroyed Ukrainian equipment from the failed attack on Ulanok, Kursk region on February 6.
   • Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights: Reports that the enemy has intensified assault operations with small infantry groups in the Lyman direction. The 63rd Brigade is actively using drones.

5. Sabotage Attempt (Reported):

   • ASTRA: Reports that FPV goggles sent to Russian soldiers as humanitarian aid were rigged with explosives. A representative of a company producing EW equipment, Igor Potapov, claimed a batch of Skyzone Cobra X v4 FPV goggles detonated when switched on. The source of the goggles was an individual named Roman.

6. Geopolitical Developments:

   • Zaporozhskaya Oblast Military Administration: Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (13:25 UTC).
   • RBK-Ukraine: Reports that the Kremlin is conducting a special campaign to hide the war's impact on the economy, citing ISW. ISW suggests part of the Russian National Welfare Fund's liquidity could be exhausted by autumn 2025.
   • TASS: Reports that the OSCE leadership has not yet responded to alleged crimes by the Ukrainian military against civilians in the Kursk region.
   • Shef Hayabusa: Provides an image and commentary suggesting a Ukrainian counteroffensive around Pokrovsk.

Updated Situation Summary

• Escalation in Makeevka: The Makeevka shelling has resulted in confirmed civilian casualties (a young woman killed and at least 10 injured, including a child), with widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including a bus station and residential buildings. This represents a serious escalation and raises concerns about potential war crimes.
• Intense Fighting in Donetsk Region: Intense fighting continues in the Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeiskoe) direction, with both sides actively engaging.
• Continued Fighting in Kursk Region: The Kursk region remains a hot zone, with continued fighting and substantial losses claimed by Russia.
• Widespread and Evolving Drone Warfare: Drone activity remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with reports of attacks, successful engagements, and potential technological advancements (laser-equipped mobile units) by both sides.
• Alleged Sabotage Attempt: The claim of explosives-rigged FPV goggles sent as humanitarian aid raises concerns about sabotage and internal security.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority).

• Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority):

  • Thoroughly document all casualties and damage.
  • Collect evidence to determine the origin and type of weapon used definitively.
  • Prepare for potential international scrutiny and legal action.
  • Increase security measures in civilian areas to prevent future attacks.

• Verify and Respond to Reported Su-25 Downing (High Priority):

  • Obtain visual confirmation (video promised) of the Su-25 downing.
  • Assess the impact on Russian air capabilities in the Toretsk direction.
  • Exploit the success for morale and propaganda purposes.

• Investigate Alleged Sabotage Attempt (High Priority):

  • Verify the claims of explosives-rigged FPV goggles.
  • If confirmed, trace the source and implement stricter security checks on all incoming supplies, especially "humanitarian aid."
  • Alert all personnel to the potential threat.

• Maintain and Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities:

  • Continue to invest in, and field countermeasures against drones.

• Monitor and Adapt to Fighting in Pokrovskoe Direction and Kursk Region:

  • Continue intensive reconnaissance of enemy movements and troop concentrations.
  • Adapt defensive and offensive strategies to shifting dynamics.

The situation has significantly escalated with the increased casualties and damage in Makeevka, requiring immediate investigation and response. The confirmed downing of a Russian Su-25, if verified, represents a significant Ukrainian success. The alleged sabotage attempt with explosives-rigged goggles introduces a new threat that requires urgent attention. Continued intense fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions demands continuous monitoring and adaptation.