Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 13:08 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 12:38 - 13:08 UTC)

1. Bogaytyrskoe Direction Fighting (Donetsk Region, Confirmed, Ongoing):

   • Voenkor Kotenok reports Russian forces are attacking Bogatyr and Konstantynopol. North of the Volchya River, Russian units are attacking in Andreevka, aiming for the western and southern outskirts. Russian forces have reportedly secured most of the village, with fighting ongoing throughout. Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in the western and northwestern parts, and near the Orlova and Volchya rivers. North of Andreevka, Ukrainian forces are trying to maintain control of the T-0515 road to prevent a Russian breakthrough towards Alekseevka. Fighting continues in Zelenovka. In Dachnoe, clearing operations are underway. Attacks towards Razliv and Ulakly have not yielded significant results. This indicates a multi-pronged Russian offensive in this sector, with intense fighting around several key settlements and strategic points. The situation is fluid, with ongoing battles.

2. Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Attack (Donetsk Region, Confirmed, High Impact):

   • Colonelcassad reports a comprehensive attack on the energy infrastructure of Kramatorsk. Following a previous strike on the "Mayskaya" 330 kV substation, additional energy facilities were targeted, resulting in complete destabilization of power supply in Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka, and Konstantinovka. Two 110 kV power lines supplying industrial zones, military facilities, and logistics centers were hit. Kramatorsk is completely without power, causing production stoppages and disrupting critical facilities. A direct hit was recorded in the Energomashspetsstal area, destroying power transformers and causing an emergency shutdown of distribution devices. 110 kV power lines are out of order, disrupting the supply of tactical units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supply depots, and repair bases. Power transformers of the TDTN-40000/110 type were damaged, leading to the failure of supply systems and the shutdown of the industrial zone. The operation of ODU-110 kV distribution devices has been disrupted. The restoration time of the power supply is uncertain. This confirms a significant and successful Russian attack on critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure, severely impacting military capabilities and civilian life in the region.

3. Makeevka Shelling Aftermath (Donetsk Region, Confirmed, High Impact, Ongoing):

   • TASS reports one person killed and at least three injured after Ukrainian shelling of the center of Makeevka.
   • Kotsnews reports a Ukrainian artillery strike on Makeevka. It's claimed that Ukrainian forces are retaliating for their own losses (failed counteroffensive in Kursk and the loss of Toretsk) by targeting civilians. The strike is suspected to have been carried out by a HIMARS system, as other systems are deemed unable to reach the area. The message calls for pushing the front line further west and increasing aerial surveillance to locate HIMARS systems.
   • Basurin o glavnom reports the same information on the shelling as Kotsnews.

4. Drone Warfare (Multiple Locations, Confirmed, Ongoing):

   • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of ballistic weapons from the south (12:33 UTC). This represents a significant threat, as ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept.
   • Arkhangel Spetsnaza releases video claiming to show the "clearing" of forest areas south of Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
   • The video shows the destruction of a small structure.
   • The Ukrainian Air Force reported the end of the threat from the south (12:40).
   • Dva Mayora publishes video showing a Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck on the Zaporizhzhia front.
   • The Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released video showing successful FPV drone strikes.
   • Kadyrov_95 reports that UAV operators of the "West-AKHMAT" battalion of the Russian Ministry of Defense, together with other units, conducted an operation to identify and defeat enemy positions, particularly a stronghold, in the Sumy region.
   • Dnevnik Desantnika publishes video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian tank west of Ulanok by the 11th Airborne Brigade with a drone.
   • The Russian MoD published a video of Russian drone pilots engaging positions, manpower, and materiel of AFU during "liberation" of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
   • The video shows intense fighting.
   • Operativny ZSU reports that the RAROG unit has destroyed or damaged over 300 occupiers using Mavic drones in recent months.
   • Video is shown of targeted drone strikes in a snowy environment.

5. Kursk Region Fighting (Confirmed, Ongoing):

   • Arkhangel Spetsnaza reports on the situation near Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka in the Kursk region. Russian forces are conducting clearing operations in forest areas south of the settlements. The extent of Russian advances is unclear due to ongoing fighting. Heavy fighting is reported at a gas station ("Lotos") north of the two villages along the 38K-028 road, with both sides using grenades, FPV drones, and artillery. Russian assault groups are counterattacking near a dam, supported by BMPs, attempting to gain a foothold and push back Ukrainian forces. There are no reports of continued fighting in Cherkasskaya Konopelka itself, with the main events occurring in nearby forests and near the dam. This confirms continued fighting in the Kursk region, focused around specific tactical points. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing battles and unclear control of specific areas.
   • Dva Mayora reports the same information as Arkhangel Spetsnaza on the situation in the Kursk region.

6. Geopolitical Developments:

   • Colonelcassad, citing NeoficialniyBeZsonoV, claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been building up forces in the Sumy region (Yunakovka).

Updated Situation Summary

• Intensified Fighting in Donetsk Region: Russian forces are conducting a multi-pronged offensive in the Bogatyrskoe direction, with intense fighting reported around several key settlements. The confirmed attack on Kramatorsk's energy infrastructure is a major development, severely crippling Ukrainian capabilities in the region. The shelling of Makeevka continues, with reports of casualties.
• Continued Fighting in Kursk Region: Fighting continues in the Kursk region, particularly around Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Russian forces are attempting to clear forest areas and counterattack near a dam, while Ukrainian forces are resisting fiercely.
• Widespread and Intensified Drone Warfare: Drone activity remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with reports of attacks and successful engagements by both sides across multiple fronts. The use of drones for both reconnaissance and attack is widespread and intensifying.
• Russian Recruitment Efforts: Zelensky details a “contractual proposal” that is designed to attract more people to the military.
• Increase in Shelling Ratio: Sirsky reports that the advantage of Russian artillery has been reduced from 1:10 to 1:2.
• Ukrainian Military Leadership: The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been in office for one year.

The situation has escalated significantly with the intensified fighting in the Donetsk region, the successful attack on Kramatorsk's energy infrastructure, and the continued shelling of Makeevka. Drone warfare remains a critical aspect of the conflict, with both sides demonstrating increasing sophistication and effectiveness. The fighting in the Kursk region continues, with a focus on specific tactical points.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority).

• Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority):

  • Verify the extent of the damage to Kramatorsk's energy infrastructure.
  • Assess the impact on Ukrainian military capabilities in the region, including logistics, command and control, and troop readiness.
  • Explore options for restoring power or mitigating the impact of the outages, including alternative power sources and emergency repairs.
  • Increase air defense measures around other critical infrastructure to prevent similar attacks.

• Investigate Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority):

  • Determine the origin of the shelling with utmost certainty.
  • Assess the type of weapon used.
  • Document the extent of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
  • Prepare for potential international condemnation and legal action if Ukrainian responsibility is confirmed.
  • Gather intelligence on potential HIMARS deployments and movements.

• Monitor and Counter Drone Warfare (High Priority):

  • Continue to gather intelligence on drone usage by both sides, including types of drones, tactics, and effectiveness.
  • Develop and deploy counter-drone measures, including electronic warfare systems and physical defenses.
  • Adapt tactics to minimize vulnerability to drone attacks, including improved camouflage, concealment, and dispersion.

• Assess and Adapt to Kursk Region Fighting (High Priority):

  • Continue gathering intelligence on the situation and troop movements.
  • Verify Russian troop movements in the Sumy region.
  • Monitor Russian advances and counterattacks.
  • Assess the impact on the front lines.
  • Adapt defensive and offensive strategies.

The situation has escalated significantly, particularly in the Donetsk region. The attack on Kramatorsk's energy infrastructure and the continued shelling of Makeevka require immediate attention and strategic response. Drone warfare remains a dominant and evolving threat, demanding continuous monitoring and adaptation. The fighting in the Kursk region requires close attention to shifting dynamics and potential implications for the broader conflict.