Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 12:38 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 12:00 - 12:38 UTC)

1. Makeevka Shelling Aftermath (Donetsk Region, Confirmed, High Impact):

   • Mash na Donbasse continues reporting on the aftermath of the shelling in Makeevka. New videos show significant damage to a residential building, burning vehicles, and emergency services responding. One video confirms at least one fatality (a woman) and reports that a child may be among the injured. This confirms civilian casualties and significant damage to civilian infrastructure. The origin of the shelling remains unconfirmed, but the location and reporting suggest a likely Ukrainian strike, although this requires verification. Multiple vehicles are confirmed on fire. The building lacks heating, water, and electricity, further exacerbating the humanitarian situation.
   • WarGonzo reports on the shelling, claiming Ukrainian forces struck the "center of Makeevka." They report that air defenses were active but did not intercept all incoming projectiles. They state that people may be trapped under rubble. This confirms a significant attack with potential for further casualties.
   • ASTRA reports one death due to the shelling of Makeevka.
   • Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights reports a strike ("Приліт") in occupied Donetsk. This aligns with reports of shelling in the general area but lacks specific location details.

2. Kursk Region Operations (Disputed, Ongoing):

   • Alex Parker Returns claims that Russian forces control Ulanok (Kursk region) and have pushed back Ukrainian forces. He reports a Russian assault on positions near Fanaseevka. This contradicts previous Ukrainian claims of success in this area and requires independent verification. The location suggests continued fighting along the border.
   • Colonelcassad, citing a friendly unit named "Vestovoy," releases drone footage purportedly showing the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Kursk region. The claimed destroyed equipment includes a self-propelled artillery unit, an evacuation vehicle with personnel, two minibuses, a BMM (armored fighting vehicle), a pickup truck, a Ural truck with supplies, a "Bukhnaka" (UAZ-452) with personnel, a KamAZ truck, and an M777 howitzer. This footage, if authentic, demonstrates significant Ukrainian losses, but the claims require independent verification. The variety of targets suggests a focus on disrupting both combat and logistical capabilities.
   • The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims that Russian forces have repelled a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region.
   • BUTUSOV PLUS reports that the Russian captain Konstantin Nagayko, who allegedly was involved in a missile strike on the village of Groza has died.

3. Drone Activity and Air Raid Alerts (Multiple Regions, Confirmed):

   • The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast (12:09 UTC). This continues the pattern of combined air attacks in this region.
   • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons from the northeast (12:12 UTC). This represents a significant threat, as ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept.
   • The Ukrainian Air Force reported a missile danger in Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
   • The Ukrainian Air Force reported the threat of ballistic weapons use from the South.
   • A UAV was reportedly suppressed in the Sheksninsky District of Vologda Oblast, Russia (reported by TASS, citing the governor). This indicates a possible expansion of the drone threat to areas deeper inside Russia.

4. Rostov-on-Don Drone Attack Aftermath (Confirmed, Significant):

   • ASTRA shows video and photos of the aftermath of the previous night's drone attack in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. The footage shows significant damage to residential buildings, with blown-out windows and debris. The acting governor reportedly stated that 14 apartment buildings had windows and frames blown out. This confirms damage to civilian infrastructure within Russia proper, a significant escalation.

5. Ukrainian Drone Deliveries and Operations (Confirmed):

   • STERNENKO reports the delivery of 320 drones to various Ukrainian units, including FPV (First-Person View) drones. This highlights the continued importance of crowdfunding and volunteer support in supplying Ukrainian forces. The specific units mentioned are the 95th Air Assault Brigade, police units in Volyn Oblast, the 68th Jaeger Brigade, the 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade, and the "Lyut" assault brigade (Luhansk-1). This demonstrates the widespread distribution of drones across different types of units.
   • A video shows the delivery of 100 anti-drone rifles.
   • Підрозділ Shadow releases drone footage showing the destruction of buildings, claiming they are Russian shelters. This continues the pattern of using drones to target enemy infrastructure.
   • Воин DV reports the destruction of a US-supplied HMMWV ("Humvee") by a drone operated by the "Kayra" unit.

6. Kharkiv Region Fighting (Confirmed):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video with the destruction of Russian tanks, BMPs, and soldiers in the region of Vishnevoe, on the Kharkiv front, by the Third Assault Brigade.

7. Geopolitical Developments:

   • The Russian Foreign Ministry called on the British Embassy to cooperate with the investigation into the incident involving a Russian journalist and a British diplomat.

Updated Situation Summary

• Escalation in Makeevka: The confirmed shelling of Makeevka with civilian casualties and significant infrastructure damage represents a major escalation in the conflict. The origin of the shelling remains unconfirmed, but the location suggests a likely Ukrainian attack.
• Continued Fighting in Kursk Region: Conflicting reports continue regarding operations in the Kursk region. Russian sources claim control of Ulanok and successful engagements, while Ukrainian sources also claim success. Independent verification is critical.
• Widespread Drone Warfare: Drone activity remains intense, with reports of attacks in both Ukraine and Russia. The confirmed drone attack aftermath in Rostov-on-Don is a significant development. Ukrainian forces continue to receive and deploy drones, highlighting their importance in the conflict.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: The Ukrainian Air Force's warning about ballistic missile threats from both the northeast and the south indicates a heightened risk of attacks on critical infrastructure and population centers.
• Potential Peacekeeper Discussion Dismissed: Scholz dismisses discussions about deploying peacekeepers in Ukraine as premature and inappropriate, emphasizing that decisions about peace should not be made without Ukraine's involvement.
• Possible Air Attack on Sumy: Tactical aviation launches guided bombs.

The situation remains highly volatile, with a significant escalation in Makeevka, continued fighting and conflicting claims in the Kursk region, and widespread drone warfare. The ballistic missile threat is a major concern. The humanitarian situation in Makeevka is worsening.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority).

• Prioritize Investigation of Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority):

  • Determine the origin of the shelling with utmost certainty.
  • Assess the type of weapon used.
  • Document the extent of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
  • Prepare for potential international condemnation and legal action if Ukrainian responsibility is confirmed.

• Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority):

  • Deploy additional air defense systems to areas facing ballistic missile threats from the northeast and south.
  • Increase readiness levels of existing air defense units.
  • Improve early warning systems to provide maximum time for response.

• Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority):

  • Determine the long-term implications of the successful drone attack on Rostov-on-Don for Russian air defense capabilities.
  • Assess the potential for further attacks on Russian territory.

• Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority):

  • Continue to gather intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region to verify conflicting claims.
  • Assess the impact of any Russian gains on the overall front line.

• Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority):

  • Analyze the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations, including the use of FPV drones and anti-drone rifles.
  • Adapt countermeasures based on lessons learned.
  • Assess the impact of Russian drone attacks, including those targeting civilian infrastructure.

The situation has escalated significantly with the shelling in Makeevka and the confirmed drone attack aftermath in Rostov-on-Don. The ballistic missile threat is a major concern, and the humanitarian situation in Makeevka requires immediate attention.