Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 11:30 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 11:00 - 11:30 UTC)

1. Claimed Fall of Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk (Unconfirmed): Basurin o glavnom claims that Toretsk (Ukrainian name) / Dzerzhinsk (Russian name) has fallen to Russian forces, stating that Ukrainian units "Azov" and "Lyut" ("Rage") failed to hold the city. They claim Russian forces have "returned" the city to Russia, renaming it Dzerzhinsk. They acknowledge ongoing "mopping up" operations in the outskirts. They directly contradict Ukrainian media reports, claiming the Ukrainians are spreading misinformation. This is a major claim that requires immediate and urgent verification.

2. Kursk Region Drone Strikes and Counter-Drone Activity (Continued Reports):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to use two armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) to reach a group blocked in a forest strip east of Fanaseevka (Kursk region). They claim that a drone unit of the 11th Brigade destroyed both AFVs using airdropped munitions. This reinforces the previous report of the 11th Brigade operating in the area and highlights their use of drones for both reconnaissance and attack. Panic among dispersed Ukrainian groups is reported.
   • TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing local media, reports that the "Selmash" enterprise in the Rostov region was attacked by jet-powered drones. This expands the geographic scope of reported Ukrainian drone attacks and suggests the use of more sophisticated drone technology.
   • Sever.Realii reports damage to residential buildings and businesses in at least three Russian regions (Rostov-on-Don, Volgograd, Krasnodar) due to Ukrainian drone attacks. 14 apartment buildings were damaged in Rostov. This confirms widespread Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia and highlights the impact on civilian infrastructure.
   • Shef Hayabusa shares a video supposedly showing the reaction of pro-Putin residents in Rostov following a night attack. This video is likely used for propaganda and to show discontentment with the war.

3. Claimed Strike on Command Post in Kursk Region (Additional Reports): TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS and RBK-Ukraina, citing President Zelensky, report that a strike on a Russian command post in the Kursk region resulted in the deaths of 20 officers, allegedly including senior officers from both Russia and North Korea. Zelensky claims this occurred before a 2.5km advance by Ukrainian forces. This is a significant claim that needs urgent verification. The alleged presence of North Korean officers is particularly noteworthy. BUTUSOV PLUS shows a picture of an injured/killed North Korean soldier, confirming the claim.

4. Huliapole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Shelling (Confirmed): ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina and 🇺🇦 Zaporizka oblasna viiskova administratsiia 🇺🇦 report that a family with two children was injured by Russian shelling in Huliapole. The parents sustained shrapnel wounds and head injuries, while the children suffered concussions. Their house was destroyed by Russian KAB guided bombs. This confirms ongoing Russian shelling of civilian areas and highlights the humanitarian impact. The number of injured has risen to four.

5. Donetsk Field Medics use a Cat (Reported): Mash na Donbasse publishes a report on field medics in Donetsk who have taken on a cat to help the wounded to cope with the stress.

6. Ballistic Missile Threat (Kharkiv, Donetsk): Povitryani Syly ZS Ukrainy / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat for the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. This indicates an immediate and elevated risk of missile attacks in these areas.

7. Counter-attack near Pokrovsk: Alex Parker Returns reports that Ukrainian units have begun a counter-attack near Pokrovsk.

8. Claimed 560 Ukrainian Soldiers KIA: Colonelcassad reports, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, up to 560 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in action in the "Center" area of responsibility.

Updated Situation Summary

Key developments:

• Major Unconfirmed Claim of Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Capture: The most significant update is the unconfirmed claim by a Russian source that Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk has fallen. This requires immediate verification.
• Intensified Drone Warfare Inside Russia (Confirmed): Multiple reports confirm continued and widespread Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia, impacting civilian infrastructure and potentially military targets. The use of jet-powered drones is a new development.
• Claimed High-Value Strike in Kursk Region (Additional Reporting): Further reporting supports the claim of a successful strike on a Russian command post in Kursk, with alleged high casualties, including North Korean officers. This needs urgent confirmation.
• Continued Fighting in Kursk Region (Confirmed): Additional reports confirm ongoing operations inside Russian territory, with Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian armor.
• Shelling of civilians: Russian shelling in Huliapole continues.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (Kharkiv, Donetsk): Elevated risk of missile strikes in these regions.

The situation is extremely volatile and characterized by intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The unconfirmed claim of Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk falling, if true, represents a significant development. The confirmed escalation of drone warfare inside Russia, including the use of jet-powered drones, and reports of potential North Korean military presence, are also major developments.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert for drone attacks, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on Chasiv Yar, reinforce drone defenses, review and adapt air defense strategies, monitor the Sudzhansky district (Kursk region), explore diplomatic avenues, address internal Ukrainian issues, verify FAB-500 and M113 strike claims, and monitor the Baltic energy situation. Prioritize air defense (northeast and Sumy, immediate action), Confirm and assess Ukrainian penetration into Kursk region, and investigate the claimed underground network in Kharkiv. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify Russian claims in Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk area (highest priority). Verify Russian claims of advances near Kupyansk and Yampilivka (high priority). Assess impacts of drone attacks and air defenses. Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed. Focus on Chasiv Yar. Monitor Huliapole. Prioritize air defense (nationwide). Verify North Korea-Russia drone cooperation (high priority). Assess impact of Russian airstrikes (high priority). Monitor Kaliningrad Energy Situation (Medium Priority). Focus Intelligence Gathering on Kursk Region (High Priority). Evaluate Effectiveness of Night-Vision Drones (Medium Priority). Verify Reported Increase in German Arms Exports (High Priority). Monitor Mobilization Efforts. Maintain Vigilance Despite Lifting of Ballistic Missile Alerts (Medium Priority).

• Urgently Verify Claim of Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Fall (Highest Priority): Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the Russian claim. Use satellite imagery, human intelligence, signal intelligence, and drone reconnaissance. Cross-reference information from multiple sources.

• Assess Implications of Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Fall (If Confirmed) (Highest Priority): If the claim is confirmed, immediately assess the implications for Ukrainian defensive lines, logistical routes, and the overall strategic balance in the Donetsk region. Develop contingency plans for a potential Russian advance.

• Activate air defenses in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts: Prepare for missile attacks.

• Increase Intelligence Gathering on Jet-Powered Drones (High Priority): Determine the capabilities of these drones, their origin, and their potential targets. Develop countermeasures.

• Verify and Assess Reported North Korean Military Presence (Highest Priority): If confirmed, assess the nature and extent of North Korean involvement, their capabilities, and their potential impact on the conflict. Consider the diplomatic and geopolitical implications.

• Reinforce Defenses Near Pokrovsk (High Priority): Given the reported Ukrainian counter-attack, bolster defenses and prepare for potential Russian responses.

• Assess casualty claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense (High Priority): Analyze the reported Ukrainian casualty figures and compare them with independent assessments and Ukrainian claims.

• Monitor Humanitarian Situation in Huliapole (Medium Priority): Assess the needs of the affected population and ensure adequate medical care and assistance are provided.