Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 11:05 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 10:30 - 11:00 UTC)

1. Kaliningrad Energy System Transition (Confirmed): Governor Besprozvannykh reports the Kaliningrad energy system transitioned to autonomous mode at 7:41 Moscow time due to the Baltic states disconnecting from the BREL energy ring. This confirms the previously reported Baltic energy independence and highlights Russia's response.

2. Drone Strikes and Counter-Drone Activity (Additional Reports):

   • Voyin DV, reporting from the Kursk region, claims the 11th Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed another Ukrainian armored fighting vehicle using a night-vision BT-40 FPV drone. This reinforces earlier reports of Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory and highlights the use of night-vision drones.
   • Dva Mayora, citing Sudoplatov, reports Russian marines are eliminating isolated Ukrainian groups near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka (Kursk region). They show footage of a strike on a building housing Ukrainian personnel. This confirms ongoing operations inside Russia and provides specific locations.
   • BUTUSOV PLUS shows video, reporting to be from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, of Ukrainian forces striking two motorcycles carrying Russian troops across an open field. The claim of a 'banzai attack' is unlikely, but does suggest poorly planned movement in an exposed location.

3. Air Raid Alerts Lifted (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports the lifting of ballistic missile threat alerts. This indicates the immediate threat has passed, but vigilance should be maintained.

4. Potential North Korea-Russia Drone Cooperation (Additional Reports): Operativnyi ZSU and STERNENKO reports.

5. Possible Increase of German Arms Exports (Reported): Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, citing Deutschlandfunk, claims the Scholz government approved approximately €39 billion in arms exports, a 65% increase from the Merkel era. A significant portion is reported to be for Ukraine. This, if accurate, represents a major increase in German military support to Ukraine and a shift in German defense policy.

6. Ukraine - Aged 18-24 Can Sign Special Contracts (Confirmed): Colonelcassad reports.

Updated Situation Summary

Key developments:

• Baltic Energy Independence (Confirmed): Kaliningrad's energy system has transitioned to autonomous operation in response to the Baltic states' disconnection.
• Continued Fighting in Kursk Region (Confirmed): Additional reports and video evidence confirm ongoing operations inside Russian territory, with Russian forces targeting isolated Ukrainian groups and Ukrainian forces striking exposed Russian troops.
• Drone Warfare Intensifies (Confirmed): Multiple sources highlight continued and potentially escalating drone warfare, including the use of night-vision FPV drones.
• Potential Surge in German Arms Exports to Ukraine (Reported): If confirmed, this represents a substantial increase in German military aid.
• Mobilization of the Youth: Young people are now allowed to sign "Special Contracts" for military purposes.

The situation remains highly volatile, with confirmed continued fighting inside Russian territory in the Kursk region. Drone warfare continues to be a defining characteristic of the conflict, with both sides employing them for reconnaissance and attack. The reported increase in German arms exports to Ukraine, if confirmed, could significantly impact the balance of power in the long term. The Baltic energy independence, now fully implemented, has resulted in Kaliningrad's energy system transitioning to autonomous mode.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert for drone attacks, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on Chasiv Yar, reinforce drone defenses, review and adapt air defense strategies, monitor the Sudzhansky district (Kursk region), explore diplomatic avenues, address internal Ukrainian issues, verify FAB-500 and M113 strike claims, and monitor the Baltic energy situation. Prioritize air defense (northeast and Sumy, immediate action), Confirm and assess Ukrainian penetration into Kursk region, and investigate the claimed underground network in Kharkiv. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify Russian claims in Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk area (highest priority). Verify Russian claims of advances near Kupyansk and Yampilivka (high priority). Assess impacts of drone attacks and air defenses. Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed. Focus on Chasiv Yar. Monitor Huliapole. Prioritize air defense (nationwide). Verify North Korea-Russia drone cooperation (high priority). Assess impact of Russian airstrikes (high priority).

• Monitor Kaliningrad Energy Situation (Medium Priority): Assess the stability and long-term implications of Kaliningrad's autonomous energy operation.

• Focus Intelligence Gathering on Kursk Region (High Priority): Confirm the extent of Ukrainian incursions, identify specific locations of activity, and assess the capabilities of both sides in the area. Prioritize analyzing Russian claims of eliminating isolated Ukrainian groups.

• Evaluate Effectiveness of Night-Vision Drones (Medium Priority): Analyze the reported use of night-vision FPV drones by both sides. Assess their effectiveness and develop countermeasures.

• Verify Reported Increase in German Arms Exports (High Priority): Obtain independent confirmation of the reported €39 billion in German arms exports. Assess the specific types of weapons and equipment involved and their potential impact on Ukrainian capabilities.

• Monitor Mobilization Efforts: Assess if the new rule of the young being allowed to sign contracts results in higher numbers.

• Maintain Vigilance Despite Lifting of Ballistic Missile Alerts (Medium Priority): While the immediate threat has passed, the potential for future missile attacks remains. Maintain a high level of readiness for air defense systems.