Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 10:30 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 10:00 - 10:30 UTC)

1. Ballistic Missile Threat (Confirmed, Multiple Regions): The Ukrainian Air Force and RBC-Ukraine report a threat of ballistic missile use in regions where air raid alerts have been declared. This indicates a significant escalation in the potential for high-impact strikes, requiring immediate air defense readiness and civilian shelter. Multiple regions of Ukraine are under a ballistic missile threat.

2. North Korea-Russia Drone Cooperation (Claimed): RBC-Ukraine, citing NHK, reports an agreement between North Korea and Russia for joint drone development. North Korea will reportedly receive technical assistance to mass-produce drones, allegedly in exchange for sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine. This, if true, represents a major development with long-term implications for Russia's drone warfare capabilities and North Korea's military technology.

3. Russian Air Strikes (Multiple Locations, Confirmed): Liveuamap, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports Russian airstrikes in Pysarivka, Ploske, Basivka, Petropavlivka, Zelenyy Hay, Pischane, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, Oleksiyivo-Druzhkivka, Oleksandropil, Katerynivka, Rozlyv, Novosilka, Novodarivka and Hulyaypole. This confirms widespread aerial attacks across multiple fronts, indicating a concerted effort to target Ukrainian infrastructure and positions.

4. Clashes Reported (Multiple Axes, Confirmed): Liveuamap, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports clashes along various axes:

   • Kharkiv Axis: Near Vovchansk.
   • Kupyansk Axis: Near Zahryzove and Lozova.
   • Lyman Axis: Near Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Novolubivka, and Yampolivka.
   • Siversk Axis: Near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
   • Kramatorsk Axis: Near Chasiv Yar and Predtechyne.
   • Toretsk Axis: Near Toretsk.
   • Pokrovsk Axis: Near Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Myrolubivka, Promin, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiyivka, Andriyivka, and Dachne.
   • Novopavlivka Axis: Near Kostyantynopil.
   • Kursk Region (Russian Territory): Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 28 Russian assaults. This confirms continued intense fighting across multiple fronts and a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory.

5. Drone Strikes and Counter-Drone Activity (Multiple Reports):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian forces destroyed a German 155-mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer near Fedorivka (between Bakhmut and Kramatorsk) using an FPV drone. This, if true, indicates a significant loss for Ukraine and highlights the vulnerability of even advanced Western-supplied equipment.
   • Operativnyi ZSU reports Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian vehicle and personnel during an attempted assault.
   • Tsaplienko_UkraineFights claims the Ukrainian "ACHILLES" drone unit, along with other units, repelled a Russian assault near Lozova (Kupyansk direction), destroying 2 BMPs and damaging a tank. This corroborates earlier reports of intense fighting in this area.
   • STERNENKO claims Ukrainian forces shot down five Russian drones: two Orlans, a Supercam, a Zala, and a "Molniya" strike drone. This highlights ongoing drone warfare and Ukrainian counter-drone capabilities.
   • RBC-Ukraine shows footage of Ukrainian air defense forces shooting down Russian drones.
   • Kotsnews and Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition report Russian drone strikes destroying a Ukrainian 120-mm mortar position near Stupochky (south of Chasiv Yar). This reinforces earlier reports of intense fighting around Chasiv Yar.

6. Death of Russian Officer (Confirmed): RBC-Ukraine and Tsaplienko_UkraineFights report, and Operativnyi ZSU corroborates, the death of Russian Captain Konstantin Nagayko, commander of a battery in the 112th Rocket Brigade. He is accused of involvement in the missile strike on Hroza, Kharkiv region. This represents a significant loss for the Russian military and is being used by Ukraine for information warfare purposes.

7. Russian MoD Claims (Multiple Fronts): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims:

   • Kharkiv Direction: Inflicted fire damage near Liptsy, resulting in Ukrainian losses.
   • Zapad Group: Continued advance, hitting Ukrainian forces across numerous locations.
   • Yug Group: Took more advantageous positions, engaging Ukrainian forces near multiple settlements.
   • Tsentr Group: Liberated Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), claiming it as the largest settlement in the Toretsk agglomeration. This is a major claim and requires immediate verification. It represents a potentially significant Russian advance.
   • Vostok Group: Improved tactical situation, striking Ukrainian forces near multiple locations.
   • Dnepr Group: Engaged Ukrainian forces, inflicting casualties and destroying an electronic warfare station.
   • Claimed to have engaged many enemy positions and infrastructure.
   • Claimed destruction of military equipment and personnel.

8. Baltic States Disconnect from Russian Energy Grid (Confirmed): RBC-Ukraine and Tsaplienko_UkraineFights confirm that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have disconnected from the Russian energy grid and synchronized with the European ENTSO-E system. This represents a major geopolitical shift and reduces Russia's leverage over these countries.

9. Ukrainian Drone Strikes inside Russia (Claimed): The general staff of the Armed Forces reports that 20-13 MLRS have been destroyed by Ukrainian strikes within the Kursk region.

Updated Situation Summary

Key developments:

• Ballistic Missile Threat: A major escalation in the threat level across multiple regions of Ukraine.
• Widespread Russian Air and Ground Attacks: Confirmed strikes and clashes across numerous fronts, indicating a sustained Russian offensive effort.
• Intense Fighting in Kursk Region: Confirmed ongoing Ukrainian operations within Russian territory, with reports of repelled Russian assaults.
• Drone Warfare Continues: Multiple reports highlight the continued use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks.
• Russian MoD Claims Major Advance: The claim of capturing Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) is a significant development that requires urgent verification.
• Baltic Energy Independence: The disconnection of the Baltic states from the Russian grid is a major geopolitical shift.
• Death of a Russian Officer: The death of a Russian officer is reported.

The situation is characterized by escalating intensity, with a widespread ballistic missile threat, confirmed air and ground attacks across multiple fronts, and continued intense fighting, including Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory. The claimed capture of Dzerzhinsk by Russia is a potentially significant development that requires immediate verification. Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert for drone attacks, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on Chasiv Yar, reinforce drone defenses, review and adapt air defense strategies, monitor the Sudzhansky district (Kursk region), explore diplomatic avenues, address internal Ukrainian issues, verify FAB-500 and M113 strike claims, and monitor the Baltic energy situation. Prioritize air defense (northeast and Sumy, immediate action), Confirm and assess Ukrainian penetration into Kursk region, and investigate the claimed underground network in Kharkiv. Prepare for escalation.
• Urgently Verify Russian Claims in Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Area (Highest Priority): Unchanged.
• Verify Russian Claims of Advances near Kupyansk and Yampilivka (High Priority): Unchanged.
• Assess Impacts of Drone Attacks and Air Defenses: Unchanged.
• Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed: Unchanged.
• Focus on Chasiv Yar: Unchanged.
• Monitor Huliapole: Unchanged.
• Prioritize Air Defense (Nationwide, Immediate Action): Deploy all available air defense assets to counter the confirmed ballistic missile threat across multiple regions. Focus on protecting critical infrastructure and population centers.
• Verify North Korea-Russia Drone Cooperation (High Priority): Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the reported agreement between North Korea and Russia on drone development. Assess the potential implications for Russia's drone warfare capabilities and the timeline for deployment of new drone systems.
• Assess Impact of Russian Airstrikes (High Priority): Gather intelligence to assess the damage caused by the reported Russian airstrikes across multiple locations. Prioritize assessing the impact on Ukrainian military infrastructure and capabilities.
• Verify Ukrainian Claims in Kursk Region (Highest Priority): The claims of destroying 20-13 MLRS are unusual, and may have alternative implications.
• Monitor Toretsk: The Russian claim to have taken the settlement is significant, if true.