Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 09:59 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 09:30 - 09:59 UTC)

1. Air Activity (Northeast, Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern direction, with a threat of the use of air-delivered ordnance. This signals a potential for airstrikes or missile attacks in the region, requiring heightened air defense readiness.

2. Guided Bomb Launches (Sumy Region, Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force confirms launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Sumy region. This confirms the air threat and specifies the type of weapon being used.

3. Kursk Region (Pliokhovo, Confirmed Intense Fighting, Ukrainian Claims):

   • Tsaplienko_UkraineFights reports active fighting by the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade near Pliokhovo, Kursk region. A Ukrainian drone became entangled in barbed wire, but still managed to engage a Russian soldier. The report references the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), claiming Ukrainian forces conducted mechanized attacks up to 5km deep into Russian defensive lines southeast of Sudzha. This confirms ongoing Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory, with reported deep penetration. This is a major escalation.

4. Zaporizhzhia Front (Claimed Ukrainian Attack Repelled): Operatsiya Z claims a Ukrainian armored group attempted a "cavalry attack" near Stepove-Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia region, and was destroyed. This, if true, suggests continued Ukrainian attempts to break through Russian lines in this sector, and ongoing heavy fighting.

5. South Donetsk Direction (Russian Advances, Claimed): Voin DV claims Russian T-72B3M tanks destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold on the South Donetsk direction, with Russian forces advancing towards the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. This suggests continued Russian pressure and potential gains in this area.

6. Kherson (Shelling, Civilian Casualties Confirmed): ASTRA reports three civilians, including a child, were injured in a Russian shelling attack on Kherson, with a shell hitting a private house. This demonstrates the ongoing targeting of civilian areas and the humanitarian cost of the conflict.

7. Huliapole (Shelling, Confirmed): Both Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine confirm at least six strikes on Huliapole, with at least two civilians (a man and a woman) injured. This demonstrates Huliapole is being targeted heavily.

8. Sumy Region (Russian Strikes, Claimed): Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in Yamne, Sumy region, reportedly killing eight fleeing Ukrainian soldiers. FABs (aerial bombs) were reportedly used against Ukrainian forces preparing to attack the Kursk region in Myropillia, with claims of significant casualties and equipment losses, including tanks and BMPs. This suggests a Russian preemptive strike to disrupt planned Ukrainian operations.

9. Kharkiv Underground Network (Claimed): Dva Mayora discusses an alleged network of underground tunnels in Kharkiv, supposedly used by Ukrainian and NATO forces, with command posts located under civilian buildings. This information is claimed to be from the hacked email of General Mykhailo Drapatiy. This is a significant claim, if true, but requires independent verification. It suggests extensive underground infrastructure potentially used for military purposes, shielded by civilian locations.

10. Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Destruction (Confirmed): Butusov Plus provides images and reports of extensive destruction in Toretsk, claiming the city is "dead". This confirms significant fighting has taken place. This is a high level of destruction.

11. Kharkiv (Reported Russian Loss): Tsaplienko_UkraineFights claims that the 4th Tank Division, near Pershotravneve, launched an attack and lost 10 armored vehicles. This signals a significant loss for the Russians.

12. Rozlyv (Drone Strikes): DeepState provides footage of drone strikes by the 23rd Mechanized Brigade.

Updated Situation Summary

Key developments:

• Increased Air Threat (Northeast and Sumy, Confirmed): Confirmed Russian air activity and guided bomb launches pose a significant threat.
• Intense Fighting in Kursk Region (Pliokhovo, Confirmed): Ukrainian forces are actively engaging within Russian territory.
• Zaporizhzhia and South Donetsk Fronts: Reports of continued fighting and conflicting claims of successes.
• Civilian Casualties (Kherson, Huliapole, Confirmed): Continued targeting of civilian areas.
• Claimed Disruption of Ukrainian Plans (Sumy Region): Russia claims to have preemptively struck Ukrainian forces preparing for attacks.
• Alleged Underground Network (Kharkiv): Potentially significant, but unverified, claim about military infrastructure.
• Extensive Destruction in Toretsk: Visual confirmation of the city's devastation.
• Kharkiv: Reports of Russian losses.

The situation is marked by escalating fighting, particularly with confirmed Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory. The increased air threat and confirmed use of guided bombs highlight the potential for further escalation. Claims of significant advances and disruptions require careful verification. The reported destruction of Toretsk is a major development, as is Ukraine's apparent strategy of carrying the fight into Russia itself.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert for drone attacks, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on Chasiv Yar, reinforce drone defenses, review and adapt air defense strategies, monitor the Sudzhansky district (Kursk region), explore diplomatic avenues, address internal Ukrainian issues, verify FAB-500 and M113 strike claims, and monitor the Baltic energy situation.
• Urgently Verify Russian Claims in Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Area (Highest Priority): Unchanged.
• Verify Russian Claims of Advances near Kupyansk and Yampilivka (High Priority): Unchanged.
• Assess Impacts of Drone Attacks and Air Defenses: Unchanged.
• Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed: Unchanged.
• Focus on Chasiv Yar: Unchanged.
• Monitor Huliapole: Unchanged.
• Prioritize Air Defense (Northeast and Sumy, Immediate Action): Deploy all available air defense assets to counter the confirmed threat of Russian air activity and guided bomb launches in the northeastern and Sumy regions. Focus on protecting critical infrastructure and population centers.
• Confirm and Assess Ukrainian Penetration into Kursk Region (High Priority): Gather intelligence to verify the extent and impact of the reported Ukrainian incursions near Pliokhovo and Sudzha. This includes assessing the depth of penetration, the forces involved, and the strategic objectives.
• Investigate Claimed Underground Network in Kharkiv (High Priority): Deploy all available intelligence assets to investigate the claim of an extensive underground network in Kharkiv used by Ukrainian and NATO forces. This includes verifying the existence of the network, its purpose, and its vulnerability.
• Prepare for Escalation: Given the increased air threats and the Ukrainian incursions, prepare for potential further escalation by Russia.