Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 09:30 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 09:00 - 09:30 UTC)

1. Baltic States Disconnect from Russian/Belarusian Grid (Confirmed, Further Details): [Geopolitical/Energy Security] DeepState confirms the disconnection of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the Russian and Belarusian energy grids, quoting Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas. The disconnection happened at 09:09 (local time, likely EET, UTC+2). This is a permanent move after a trial period; the Baltic states are now synchronizing with the Continental European network. This reinforces prior confirmation and provides a precise time for the event. The move is significant for energy security and reduces Russian leverage. TASS reports that the Russian post-representative to the EU states that the disconnection is political and will cause great economic damage to the Baltic States and the EU.

2. Donetsk Region (Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk) Situation (Significant Russian Claims):

   • Kotsnews provides video footage purportedly showing battles for Dzerzhinsk (the Russian name for Toretsk). The video claims Ukrainian forces are "wasting" troops and Western equipment in "hopeless counterattacks" in the Kursk region, while the Russian army "continues to liberate cities." The video asserts Dzerzhinsk is the "gateway" to the northern part of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast (Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk). The video claims Russian forces are attacking Kostyantynivka from the east, via Chasiv Yar. This report claims significant strategic importance for Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk and suggests a two-pronged Russian advance towards Kostyantynivka.
   • Operatsiya Z provides multiple images, claimed to be of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) from a bird's-eye view, reporting that the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the "liberation" of the "strategically important city" yesterday. The images show extensive destruction. This reinforces previous claims of Russian control over Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk and highlights the heavy fighting that has taken place.
   • Colonelcassad reports on the situation on the Toretsk front, stating the Russian army has "complete control" of Druzhba. It also claims urban fighting in Toretsk is "practically over", with fighting ongoing in the forest area and on the slag heaps on the city's outskirts.
   • Tsaplienko provides video footage that the BSP "Donbas" of the 18th Slovyansk Brigade entered into close combat with the occupiers in the city of Chasiv Yar.

3. Kharkiv Region (Kupyansk Direction) Situation (Claimed Russian Advances):

   • Colonelcassad reports the Russian army achieved "new successes" north and northwest of Dvorichna on the Kupyansk front (north).
   • Slichniy Kapriz reports on positional battles in the Kupyansk area, claiming Russian forces expanded their controlled territory on the west bank of the Oskil River, advancing 1 km towards the P-79 highway near Zapadne.

4. Yampilivka (Oskil Front) Situation:

• Colonelcassad claims Russian forces have entered Yampilivka from the north.

5. HIMARS and Drone Interceptions (Claimed): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted one HIMARS rocket and 93 drones in the past 24 hours. This claim requires independent verification but, if true, demonstrates continued Ukrainian use of HIMARS and extensive drone activity, with significant Russian air defense efforts.

6. Kharkiv Region, Combat Action (Reported): OTU "Kharkiv" reports ongoing combat operations. Ukrainian forces repelled one attack near Vovchansk. The enemy conducted 6 airstrikes (15 KABs, 10 NARs), 67 kamikaze drone strikes, and 448 shellings of Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces claim to have inflicted casualties: 44 enemy personnel (11 KIA, 33 WIA). Equipment losses include 1 armored vehicle, 3 artillery systems, 5 vehicles, 5 pieces of special equipment, 1 EW system, and 50 drones. 84 shelters and 2 ammunition storage sites were destroyed.

7. Huliapole Strike (Reported): At least six strikes were conducted on Huliapole, Zaporizhzhia region. Two people (man and woman) are reported as injured and are being transported to the hospital.

Updated Situation Summary

Key developments beyond the previous report (09:00 UTC) include:

• Baltic Energy Independence (Confirmed, Further Details): The disconnection is confirmed, with a precise time and official statements.
• Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Situation (Significant Russian Claims): Multiple Russian sources claim control over Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk and Druzhba, suggesting a major Russian advance. The fighting is reportedly shifting to the outskirts. This requires verification.
• Kupyansk and Yampilivka Advances (Claimed): Russian sources claim advances in the Kupyansk direction and entry into Yampilivka.
• Continued Drone and Air Defense Activity: Claims of Russian HIMARS and drone interceptions, along with OTU "Kharkiv" report of 67 enemy drone attacks in the past 24 hours.
• Combat in Kharkiv: Ukraine confirms intense fighting near Vovchansk.
• Huliapole: There are reports of casualties in Huliapole, meaning the city remains a point of attack.

The overall situation remains characterized by intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with conflicting claims regarding control of key areas. The confirmed Baltic energy grid disconnection is a major geopolitical development. Russian claims of significant advances in the Donetsk region (Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk) require urgent independent verification.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert for drone attacks, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on Chasiv Yar, reinforce drone defenses, review and adapt air defense strategies, monitor the Sudzhansky district (Kursk region), explore diplomatic avenues, address internal Ukrainian issues, verify FAB-500 and M113 strike claims, and monitor the Baltic energy situation.
• Urgently Verify Russian Claims in Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Area (Highest Priority): Deploy all available intelligence assets to independently verify the repeated and emphatic Russian claims of control over Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk and Druzhba. This is crucial for accurate assessment and decision-making.
• Verify Russian Claims of Advances near Kupyansk and Yampilivka (High Priority): Gather intelligence to verify the claimed Russian advances. Assess the impact if confirmed.
• Assess Impacts of Drone Attacks and Air Defenses: Unchanged.
• Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed: Unchanged.
• Focus on Chasiv Yar: Given its strategic importance (as highlighted in Kotsnews reports), maintain focus on Chasiv Yar and the potential Russian advance towards Kostyantynivka.
• Monitor Huliapole: Given the presence of injuries, monitor the area for potential increased Russian attacks.