Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 04:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 03:30 UTC, February 8, 2025)

Eastern Front: Drone Threat Officially Lifted, but Ground Operations Continue

• Drone Threat Lifted (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force has officially declared an end to the threat of enemy attack drones across all regions (03:49 UTC, 03:50 UTC). This reduces the immediate alert level, but vigilance remains necessary.

• South-Donetsk Direction, Drone Strike (Confirmed): Operators of the 1st Battalion, 39th Guards Brigade (Sakhalin troops, 68th Army Corps), used a drone to strike a lone Ukrainian soldier (03:34 UTC). Video analysis confirms the strike and the soldier's attempt to crawl away, highlighting the ongoing use of drone warfare in the region.

Russian Internal Issues: Further Drone Attack Damage, Response Efforts

• Rostov-on-Don (Confirmed): Windows in 14 apartment buildings were damaged due to the drone attack (03:42 UTC). Rescue workers are on-site, and buses have been provided to warm residents. A crisis commission meeting is planned (03:45 UTC). This indicates a widening impact of the drone attacks on civilian infrastructure within Russia.

Geopolitical Developments: US Presidential Actions Impacting Intelligence Access and Immigration

• Trump Revokes Biden's Security Clearance (Reported): President Trump has reportedly revoked former President Biden's access to classified information, citing Biden's alleged precedent-setting actions in 2021 and concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities (03:36 UTC). This is a highly unusual and politically charged development with potential national security implications, though its direct impact on the Ukrainian conflict is indirect.

• Resumption of Immigrant Family Detentions (Reported): The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to reinstate the practice of detaining immigrant families, potentially leading to an increase in the detention of children and adolescents (03:41 UTC). This is primarily a domestic US issue but reflects the Trump administration's broader policy stance and could indirectly affect US focus and resources.

Summary by "Two Majors" (04:00 UTC)

Provides a pro-Russian perspective on the situation, highlighting claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian deployments:

• Drone Attacks (Confirmed): Reinforces prior reports of drone attacks in Rostov and Krasnodar Krai, emphasizing damage to civilian infrastructure.
• Kursk Region (Claimed): Claims ongoing battles, with Russian forces pushing Ukrainian forces out of strongholds. Reports significant Ukrainian troop deployments in the Sudzhansky district, including foreign mercenaries and specialized units.
• Kupyansk Direction (Claimed): Claims continued Russian advances and expansion of a bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil River.
• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Major Claim): The Russian Ministry of Defense has reportedly claimed the liberation of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). This, if confirmed by independent sources, would be a significant Russian victory, opening a path towards Konstantinovka and threatening the Ukrainian forces in Kramatorsk.
• Pokrovsk Direction (Claimed): Claims Russian forces are expanding their control in the eastern part of Uspenovka.
• Kurakhove (Claimed): Claims Russian forces are completing the assault on Dachne and fighting near Konstantinopol.
• Kherson Region (Reported): Reports Ukrainian shelling of Novaya Kakhovka and Kakhovka, resulting in damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties.

Updated Situation Assessment

1. Reduced Air Threat, Ongoing Ground Combat: While the immediate threat of drone attacks has been officially lifted, ground operations and localized drone strikes continue, particularly in the South-Donetsk direction.
2. Confirmed and Expanding Drone Impact in Russia: The drone attacks within Russia are confirmed to have caused damage to multiple civilian structures in Rostov-on-Don, illustrating the vulnerability of Russian infrastructure.
3. Significant Russian Claim in Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk: The reported liberation of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk by the Russian Ministry of Defense, if verified, represents a major development with strategic consequences for the control of the Donetsk region. This would likely lead to an escalation of conflict.
4. US Political Developments with Indirect Implications: The reported revocation of Biden's security clearance and the potential resumption of immigrant family detentions are primarily US internal matters, but they reflect the current US administration's priorities and could indirectly impact its foreign policy engagement.

Updated Recommendations

• Maintain Vigilance Despite Drone Threat Reduction: Although the official drone alert has been lifted, maintain a high level of readiness for potential future drone attacks and ongoing ground operations.
• Verify Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk Claim (Urgent): Independently verify the Russian claim of liberating Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk. This is crucial for assessing the actual situation on the ground and adjusting operational plans accordingly.
• Assess Impact of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Contingent on Verification): If the Russian claim is confirmed, immediately assess the strategic impact on the Donetsk front. This includes:
  • Reinforcing defenses around Konstantinovka and preparing for potential Russian offensives.
  • Re-evaluating supply lines and troop deployments in the Kramatorsk area.
  • Considering potential counter-offensive measures.
• Monitor Sudzhansky District (Kursk Region): Given the reported increase in Ukrainian troop deployments in the Sudzhansky district, increase surveillance and intelligence gathering in this area to assess the potential for increased fighting or incursions.
• Continue Humanitarian Aid in Russia: Help civilians impacted by the attack in Rostov-on-Don.
• Maintain Focus in Kozacha Lopan and South Donetsk: These are areas that recently reported attacks.
• Maintain Air Defense in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and the border of Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi.
• Re-evaluate the situation at 04:30 UTC. Because the previous Air Threat was lifted at 03:50, we need to check on the situation in case of any other aerial threats.