Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 03:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 03:00 UTC, February 8, 2025)

Eastern Front: Air Strike Threat Remains, Drone Activity Continues

• Air Strike Threat (Confirmed): The threat of Russian air-launched weapons against frontline areas, reported at 02:38 UTC, remains in effect.
• Drone Activity Expands (Confirmed):
  • A drone is reported moving towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a vector towards Starokostiantyniv (03:05 UTC). This is significant as Starokostiantyniv is a known location of Ukrainian air defense assets and military infrastructure.
  • Another drone is reported on the border of Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, moving southwest (03:24 UTC).

Russian Internal Issues: Additional Drone Attack Damage Reported

• Chertkovsky District, Rostov Oblast (Reported): Administrative and utility buildings of an enterprise were damaged in a drone attack. Six workers were evacuated (03:02 UTC).
• Slavyansky District, Krasnodar Krai (Reported): Roofs and windows of five houses were damaged by falling drone debris (03:29 UTC).
• These, with the previous report from Rostov, provide a confirmed pattern of drone activity.

Military Operations - Precision Strikes Continue

• Kozacha Lopan, Targeted Strike (Confirmed): A video, verified by Colonelcassad, shows a precise strike on a building in Kozacha Lopan, claiming it was a Ukrainian temporary deployment point (PVD) (03:03 UTC). The analysis confirms the destruction of the building and highlights the strategic implications of such targeting. This demonstrates ongoing Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian military infrastructure and personnel in the area.

Updated Situation Assessment

1. Elevated Air and Drone Threat: The confirmed threat of air strikes on the Eastern Front persists, with confirmed drone activity in and near Khmelnytskyi.
2. Confirmed Pattern of Drone Activity: In the Russian Oblasts of Chertkovsky, Rostov, and Slavyansky.

Updated Recommendations

• All Previous Recommendations Remain in Effect: No changes to recommendations, except as noted below.

• Maintain Highest Air Defense Alert - Eastern Front: Due to the continued threat of Russian air-launched weapons, maintain the highest level of air defense readiness in frontline areas.

• Prioritize Air Defense Readiness - Khmelnytskyi Oblast (Urgent): Given the reported drone activity heading towards Starokostiantyniv, immediately prioritize air defense readiness in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Deploy available air defense systems, increase radar surveillance, and ensure rapid response capabilities to intercept incoming threats. Starokostiantyniv is a critical target due to its likely airbase and military infrastructure.

• Maintain Air Defense in other areas: Maintain air defense readiness in other areas, like the border of Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi.

• Investigate Recent Drone Activity: Analyze the reported drone attacks, including the trajectory.

• Maintain Focus in Kozacha Lopan.