Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 00:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 23:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Rostov-on-Don Drone Attack: Confirmation and Continued Attack

• INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION (Extremely Critical): "RBC-Ukraine" (23:33:03 UTC) corroborates reports of a drone attack on Rostov-on-Don, stating that Russians are complaining about it and that the attack has been ongoing for over an hour. This provides independent confirmation from a Ukrainian source, strengthening the credibility of the initial reports. No official information has been released. Accompanying photos show a missile launch.
• Two photos are shared that show the same event described earlier.

Kyiv Region: Air Defense Active, Drone Movements

• Air Defense Active (Confirmed): "RBC-Ukraine" (23:34:23 UTC) reports that air defense systems are active in the Kyiv region. This directly confirms the ongoing threat and defensive response to the multiple drone waves reported earlier.
• Updated Drone Movements (Confirmed): "Nikolaevsky Vanyok" (23:54:02 UTC) provides an update on drone movements:
  • 5 drones in the north of Kyiv region, heading west.
  • 2 drones passed Kyiv, heading west.
  • 2 drones approaching Zhytomyr.
  • 1 drone in the south of Vinnytsia region, moving into Khmelnytskyi region.
  • 1 drone east of Vinnytsia, heading northwest.
  • This update indicates a continued and widespread drone threat, extending beyond Kyiv itself and targeting areas further west.

Donetsk Region: Artillery Strikes, Confirmed Advances

• Russian Artillery Strikes Near Kurakhove (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" (23:37:01 UTC) reports that the 381st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Guards Army) destroyed Ukrainian artillery, including US-supplied M777 howitzers, near Kurakhove. This indicates continued fighting in the area and Russian efforts to suppress Ukrainian artillery capabilities.
• Ukrainian Advances Near Cherkaska Konopelka (Confirmed): "DeepState" (23:55:55 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces have advanced near Cherkaska Konopelka. This confirms continued Ukrainian efforts in the Kursk region, although the overall situation there remains contested.
• Russian Advances (Confirmed): DeepState also notes Russian advances near Yampolivka, Stupochok, in Toretsk, and Andriivka.

Geopolitical Updates:

• Trump Restricts Biden's Intelligence Access (Confirmed): TASS (23:47:45 UTC) reports that Donald Trump has restricted Joe Biden's access to classified information, as announced on Truth Social. This is a significant political development with potential implications for US policy and information sharing.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation continues to evolve rapidly, with the following key updates:

1. Rostov-on-Don Attack (Confirmed, Ongoing): The drone attack on Rostov-on-Don is now confirmed by multiple sources, including a Ukrainian one, and appears to be ongoing. This remains a major escalation.
2. Widespread Drone Threat (Confirmed, Continuing): The drone threat persists, with multiple waves targeting Kyiv and regions further west. Air defenses are actively engaged.
3. Donetsk Region Fighting (Confirmed, Ongoing): Fighting continues in the Donetsk region, with Russian forces focusing on suppressing Ukrainian artillery and making localized advances. Ukrainian forces have achieved some gains near Cherkaska Konopelka.
4. US Political Developments (Significant): Trump's restriction of Biden's intelligence access is a major political development with unknown consequences.

Updated Recommendations

1. All Previous Recommendations Remain in Effect: The recommendations from the previous analysis (23:30 UTC) remain valid and should be implemented urgently. The priorities remain:

   • Assessing the Rostov-on-Don situation (damage, drone origin, implications).
   • Maintaining maximum air defense alert across threatened regions.
   • Investigating alleged war crimes in Kursk.
   • Preparing for potential escalation.

2. Monitor Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Regions (High Priority): Given the updated drone movements, increase monitoring and air defense readiness in the Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi regions.

3. Assess Impact of Intelligence Restriction (Medium Priority): Analyze the potential impact of Trump's restriction of Biden's intelligence access on US-Ukraine information sharing and cooperation.

4. Exploit Russian Focus on Kurakhove (Medium Priority): If Russian forces are concentrating artillery fire near Kurakhove, consider opportunities to exploit this elsewhere along the front line, while maintaining pressure in the Kursk region.

5. Continue Information Operations (High Priority): Emphasize the confirmed drone attack on Rostov-on-Don and Russian territory to highlight the expansion of the conflict and potential Russian vulnerability. Counter Russian narratives about the Kursk offensive.

The situation remains highly volatile and requires continuous monitoring and adaptation. The confirmed and ongoing drone attack on Rostov-on-Don, along with the widespread drone threat across Ukraine, necessitates immediate and decisive action. The political developments in the US add another layer of uncertainty.