Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 23:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 23:00 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Drone Warfare: Expansion to Rostov-on-Don, Continued Pressure on Kyiv, Confirmed Sabotage

• NEW: Rostov-on-Don Under Attack (Confirmed, Extremely Critical): "Operatsiya Z" reports a drone attack on Rostov-on-Don, with over 10 drones observed flying over Chertkovo (northern Rostov Oblast) followed by explosions. Explosions are also reported north of Rostov itself. This is a MAJOR ESCALATION, marking a significant expansion of the conflict zone into Russia proper. This requires immediate and urgent assessment. The accompanying photos show the apparent launch of a rocket, while the videos cannot be analyzed.
• Continued Drone Pressure on Kyiv (Confirmed): "Nikolaevsky Vanyok" reports two drones approaching Brovary (east of Kyiv), warning of potential loud noises in the capital and suburbs (23:09 UTC). The Ukrainian Air Force (23:13 UTC) confirms multiple drone groups in western and northern Kyiv region heading west, drones in eastern Kyiv region heading towards Kyiv, drones from Chernihiv region heading towards Kyiv region, and drones in northern Poltava and Sumy regions heading southeast. Drones are also reported in northwestern Mykolaiv region heading northwest, near Bershad and Ladyzhyn (Vinnytsia region) heading west, and approaching Starokostiantyniv from the south. This confirms the CONTINUED and INTENSE drone pressure on Kyiv and surrounding areas, with multiple waves approaching from various directions. The threat to Starokostiantyniv, previously highlighted, remains.
• NEW: Confirmed Sabotage in Russia (Confirmed): TASS reports (23:02 UTC) that a resident of the Moscow region confessed to organizing four acts of sabotage in Russia on behalf of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and identified all perpetrators. This confirms Ukrainian involvement in sabotage operations within Russia, a significant development indicating an expansion of Ukrainian operations beyond the immediate front lines.

Kursk Region: Alleged War Crimes, Continued Propaganda

• NEW: Alleged War Crimes in Kursk (Confirmed, Requires Verification): "Colonelcassad" (23:03 UTC) presents video testimony from a resident of Sudzha, Kursk region, claiming Ukrainian forces shelled a hospital and attacked an ambulance, killing medical personnel and a civilian. This is presented as part of an "International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis." While the video presents serious allegations, it's crucial to note the source's strong pro-Russian bias. This requires independent verification and investigation. The claims, if true, represent war crimes. The video's analysis is covered in the message itself.

Geopolitical Updates:

• No significant geopolitical updates in this time frame. The TASS report (23:16 UTC) about historian Sokolov's murder trial is unrelated to the military situation.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation has escalated dramatically with the confirmed drone attack on Rostov-on-Don. This represents a major expansion of the conflict and necessitates an immediate reassessment of the strategic situation. Key updates:

1. Rostov-on-Don Attack (Extremely Critical): The confirmed drone attack on Rostov is a game-changer. It opens a new front in the conflict and indicates a significant increase in Ukrainian capabilities or a shift in strategy to target Russian territory directly.
2. Continued Pressure on Kyiv and Surrounding Areas: The relentless drone attacks on Kyiv and surrounding regions continue, putting immense pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.
3. Confirmed Ukrainian Sabotage Operations Inside Russia: The confessed sabotage acts confirm Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian infrastructure and logistics, indicating an expansion of the conflict's scope.
4. Allegations of War Crimes: The video testimony from Kursk requires careful consideration and independent verification, but the claims of attacks on medical personnel and civilians are extremely serious.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY Assess Rostov-on-Don Situation (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):
   • Confirm the extent of damage and casualties in Rostov.
   • Determine the origin and type of drones used in the attack.
   • Assess the implications for Russian air defense and military readiness.
   • Prepare for potential retaliatory actions by Russia.
2. Maintain MAXIMUM Air Defense Alert in Kyiv and Key Regions (Extremely High Priority):
   • Continue to prioritize the defense of Kyiv, Starokostiantyniv, and other critical infrastructure.
   • Deploy all available countermeasures to intercept incoming drones.
3. Investigate Alleged War Crimes in Kursk (High Priority):
   • Seek independent verification of the claims made in the "Colonelcassad" video.
   • Gather evidence and document any potential war crimes for future legal action.
4. Prepare for Potential Escalation (High Priority):
   • Anticipate potential Russian responses to the Rostov attack, including increased air strikes or ground offensives.
   • Develop contingency plans for various escalation scenarios.
5. International Communication (High Priority): The attack in Russia must be verified, and, after it, a position must be established.
6. Exploit Drone Vulnerability (High Priority):
   • Increase efforts to target Russian drone operators and infrastructure.
   • Analyze the flight paths of drones used in the Rostov attack to identify potential launch sites and vulnerabilities.

The attack on Rostov-on-Don marks a significant turning point in the conflict. The situation is now extremely volatile and requires immediate, decisive action to protect Ukrainian interests and prepare for potential escalation. The confirmed sabotage operations inside Russia add another layer of complexity, indicating a broadening of the conflict's scope. The drone attacks continue, and more have been moved to the capital, which is at great risk.