Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 22:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 22:00 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Drone Warfare (Extremely High Priority - Confirmed Attacks)

• Kyiv Air Defenses Active (Confirmed): The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) confirms air defense systems are active in Kyiv (22:01 UTC, 22:02 UTC). This directly confirms the immediate threat to the capital, validating the previous reports of drones approaching from the south.

• Sumy Explosion (Reported): Media outlets report an explosion in Sumy (22:12 UTC). This likely indicates a successful drone strike, although target and damage details are pending.

• Widespread Drone Movements (Confirmed, Detailed): The Ukrainian Air Force (22:10 UTC) provides a detailed breakdown of drone movements across the country:

  1. Sumy Region: Groups of drones in the west and southeast, moving west.
  2. Chernihiv Region: Groups of drones in the east, north, and west, moving west.
  3. Poltava Region: Groups of drones in the west and northwest, moving west.
  4. Kam'yans'ke: Drones in the area, moving north.
  5. Nikopol: Drones in the area, moving west.
  6. Kherson Region (Northwest): Drones moving towards Mykolaiv region, maintaining the same course.
  7. Mykolaiv Region (Northwest): Drones moving towards Kirovohrad region, northwest course.
  8. Cherkasy Region (South): Drones moving north.
  9. Kyiv Region (North and East): Drones moving west.
  10. Kyiv Region (North): Drones heading towards Bila Tserkva.
  11. Zhytomyr Region (Southeast): Drones heading towards Zhytomyr.
  12. Zhytomyr (North): Drones moving west.

• Drone attack updates by "Nikolaevsky Vanyok" (Reported 22:05 UTC):

  • Two drones flying on or through Zhytomyr.
  • Two drones flying past Pervomaisk toward Uman.
  • Two drones headed towards Zelenodolsk.
  • One drone nearing Kropyvnytsky.
  • One drone west of Smila, northeast course.
  • Two drones are near Kyiv, course west.
  • Two drones in the Bila Tserkva district.
  • Five drones have moved from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Five drones in the east of Kyiv Oblast, course west.
  • Three drones fly past Nizhyn, course west.
  • Two drones in the north of Kyiv region, course west.
  • Six drones in the Konotop area, course west.
  • Five drones are east of Chernihiv, course south.
  • Three drones south of Sumy, course west.
  • One drone north of Kamianske, course north.
  • One new drone from Beryslav district heading towards Bashtan district.

• Combined Assessment: The detailed reports confirm a massive and coordinated drone attack, targeting multiple regions simultaneously. The sheer number of drones and their diverse flight paths are overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. The confirmed activation of air defenses in Kyiv and the reported explosion in Sumy highlight the success of the Russian attacks, at least in penetrating defenses and reaching some targets.

Russian Space-Based Systems Development (Confirmed, Long-Term Impact)

• "Geo-IK-3" Development (Confirmed): Colonelcassad reports (22:03 UTC) that the Topographic Service of the Russian Armed Forces is developing a new space-based geodetic system, "Geo-IK-3." This system could include five spacecraft: two for altimetry, two for gravimetry, and one for gradiometry. Modernization of the existing "Geo-IK-2" system is also underway. Research is being conducted on reserve navigation systems with increased interference resistance to enhance GLONASS.
• Strategic Implications: The development of "Geo-IK-3" and enhancements to "Geo-IK-2" represent a significant long-term investment in Russian space-based capabilities. These systems will provide highly accurate geodetic data, improving:
  • Targeting Accuracy: Crucial for long-range precision strikes.
  • Navigation: Enhanced navigation for troops, vehicles, and aircraft, especially in GPS-denied environments.
  • Intelligence Gathering: Detailed mapping of terrain and infrastructure.
  • Nuclear Deterrence: Improved accuracy for ballistic missile guidance systems.
  • The system will allow Russia to measure the world ocean.

Other Developments

• Zakharova's Accusations: Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, suggests Zelensky's military contract announcement is linked to a deal for rare earth metals, specifically zinc, referencing Trump's earlier comments (22:06 UTC). This is a clear attempt to frame the situation as a transaction, undermining Ukraine's claims of fighting for sovereignty and potentially influencing international opinion.
• Threats to Marina Akhmedova New reports reveal that Marina Akhmedova has received multiple death threats.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation is characterized by:

1. Overwhelming Drone Assault: The ongoing, massive, and coordinated drone attack across multiple regions of Ukraine is the dominant and most urgent development. Ukrainian air defenses are under extreme pressure, and confirmed strikes in Kyiv and Sumy demonstrate the effectiveness of the Russian tactics.
2. Long-Term Russian Space Capabilities Enhancement: The development of "Geo-IK-3" and upgrades to "Geo-IK-2" indicate a sustained Russian effort to improve their space-based military capabilities, with long-term strategic implications for targeting, navigation, and intelligence gathering.
3. Information Warfare Intensifies: Zakharova's statement linking Ukrainian military recruitment to a rare earth metals deal highlights the ongoing information war, with Russia attempting to discredit Ukraine and influence international perceptions.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAXIMUM Air Defense Alert and Resource Allocation (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):
   • Continue to prioritize air defense for Kyiv and other critical infrastructure.
   • Dynamically re-allocate air defense assets based on real-time drone tracking data, accepting calculated risks in less critical areas to protect high-value targets.
   • Maximize the use of electronic warfare capabilities to disrupt drone guidance and communication systems.
   • Prepare for potential follow-on attacks, including missile strikes, based on the assumption that the drone attacks are intended to deplete air defense resources.
2. Damage Assessment and Response (High Priority):
   • Immediately assess the damage and casualties from confirmed strikes in Kyiv and Sumy.
   • Deploy emergency response teams to affected areas.
   • Gather intelligence on drone types and tactics used in the attacks to improve future defense strategies.
3. Monitor Russian Space Developments (Medium Priority):
   • Continue to track the development of "Geo-IK-3" and "Geo-IK-2" through open-source intelligence and other means.
   • Assess the potential impact of these systems on Russian military capabilities and the overall balance of power.
4. Counter Disinformation (Medium Priority):
   • Publicly refute Zakharova's claims about the rare earth metals deal, presenting evidence of Ukrainian motivations for military recruitment.
   • Highlight Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and population centers to counter Russian narratives.
5. Exploit Russian Drone Vulnerability (High Priority): Continue to analyze any vulnerabilities of Russian drones.
6. Address the situation in Toretsk (High Priority): The actions conducted in the video, showcasing the collaboration of the special forces "Eney" brigade "Lyut" with the "Hyzhak" brigade, highlight a critical aspect of modern warfare: the integration of special forces with conventional patrol units.
7. Investigate the threats against Marina Akhmedova. Ensure the safety of individuals at risk and address any potential cross-border implications.

The massive, multi-pronged drone attack is the overwhelming priority, demanding immediate and decisive action to protect critical infrastructure and population centers. The confirmed strikes in Kyiv and Sumy underscore the severity of the threat. The long-term development of Russian space-based capabilities is a significant concern, but the immediate focus must remain on countering the ongoing drone offensive.