Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 22:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 21:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Drone Warfare (Extremely High Priority)

• Drone Activity Towards Kyiv (Confirmed & Expanded): Crucially, the Ukrainian Air Force (21:58 UTC) confirms enemy attack drones are moving towards Kyiv from the south. This contradicts earlier reports of movement primarily from the north (Chernihiv region). This suggests either:
  • A new wave of attacks originating from a different direction.
  • A diversionary tactic, with drones changing course to avoid air defenses.
  • Misreporting or misinterpretation of initial drone movements.
  • The multiple reports refer to different drones.
• Drone Activity Continues (Confirmed): Drone threats persist across multiple regions.
• Kyiv Region: * Drones were approaching Vyshhorod and Obukhiv. * Drones are approaching Kyiv from the South. * Drone were reported on approach to Vasylkiv.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Still a threat, but updates are needed.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Threat persists; details are being clarified.
  • Chernihiv/Sumy Border: Drones still active.
  • Cherkasy: Drones still active.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones still active.
  • Kremenchuk Area: Drones still active.
  • Dnipro: Drones still active.
  • Pershotravensk Area: Drones still active.
  • Zaporizhzhia (West): Drone activity continues, moving West.
  • Kropyvnytskyi (South): Drones still active.
  • Poltava:
    • Drones were heading to/through the city.
    • Three drones coming from Sumy Oblast.
    • Three drones passing through Myrhohod.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Zlatopil): Drone activity continues.
  • Okhtyrka -> Poltava Oblast: Drone activity continues.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Confirmed drone threat.
  • Pryluky area: One drone reported.
  • Chernihiv (East): Four drones, heading southwest.
  • Konotop area: Two drones, heading southwest.
  • Yelanets area: Three drones, heading west.
  • Oleksandriia area: Three drones, moving towards Smila.
  • Kremenchuk (North): Three drones, heading west.
• Drone Payment Postponed (Confirmed, No Impact on Deliveries): STERNENKO (21:31 UTC) announces that drone payments will be postponed until tomorrow, but this will not affect deliveries. This indicates continued Ukrainian focus on drone procurement and suggests potential financial constraints, though the immediate operational impact is minimal.

Ground Operations

• Kurakhove - Ulakly (Donetsk Region, Confirmed Russian Strike): "Сливочный каприз" (21:31 UTC) reports a successful Russian FPV drone strike against a Ukrainian HMMWV near Ulakly, approximately 2km from the front line. The report includes coordinates (47.995667, 37.122122) and a video. This confirms continued fighting near Kurakhove and demonstrates Russian use of FPV drones for precision strikes.
• Kurakhove (Donetsk Region, Confirmed Russian Control): A Russian military correspondent (Maryana Naumova) reports from Kurakhove, confirming its capture by Russian forces "almost a month ago." She describes the town as relatively intact compared to Mariupol, Avdiivka, and Marinka, despite damage to windows and facades. She emphasizes that several thousand residents remain and are receiving assistance from Russian forces. This confirms Russian control and provides a firsthand, albeit biased, account of the situation on the ground.
• Toretsk (Donetsk Region, Confirmed Ukrainian Action): Ukrainian forces (Lyut Assault Brigade and Eney Special Operations Battalion) report using explosives to target Russian positions in Toretsk. Drone footage shows urban warfare and the destruction of buildings. This confirms continued fighting in Toretsk and highlights Ukrainian tactics in urban environments.
• Kupyansk Direction (Confirmed Ukrainian Action): Ukrainian forces report destroying a significant amount of Russian equipment.

Internal Security (Russia)

• Baltiysk (Kaliningrad Region, Corruption Arrests): The head of Baltiysk, Sergey Melnikov, and his deputy, Maxim Kovalenko, have been arrested on suspicion of bribery. This indicates potential internal issues within Russian administration, though its impact on military operations is likely minimal.

Diplomatic Developments

• Pete Hegseth to Visit Europe (Confirmed): The Pentagon confirms that Pete Hegseth will visit Germany, Belgium, and Poland next week, and will participate in a meeting on Ukraine in Brussels. This indicates continued US engagement in coordinating support for Ukraine, though the specifics of Hegseth's role require further clarification.
• Trump Questions Aid to Ukraine (Confirmed): TASS (21:35 UTC) reports Trump questioning Zelenskyy about "equivalents" for the money spent on Ukraine. This aligns with his previous stances on foreign aid and potentially signals a shift in US policy should he be re-elected.

Ukrainian Personnel Changes

• New ambassadors appointed.
• Changes in the composition of the National Security and Defense Council.

Ukrainian Military Recruitment

• Reports confirm Ukraine plans to recruit individuals from 18-24 years old, using special contracts.

Information Operations

• Pro-Russian Claims of Kurakhove Situation: Maryana Naumova's report from Kurakhove is clearly intended to portray Russian forces as benevolent and in control, while highlighting the resilience of pro-Russian residents. The video is attempting to depict civilians in a positive light.
• Russian Propaganda continues.

Overall Situation Assessment (Changes Highlighted)

1. Intensified and Widespread Drone Warfare: Continues to be the PRIMARY CONCERN. The confirmation of drones approaching Kyiv from the south is a critical development, requiring immediate reassessment of air defense deployments. The widespread drone activity across multiple regions continues to stretch Ukrainian air defenses.
2. Confirmed Russian Control of Kurakhove: The firsthand report from a Russian correspondent confirms Russian control of Kurakhove, though the extent of damage and civilian support is presented from a pro-Russian perspective.
3. Continued Fighting in Toretsk: Ukrainian forces are actively engaging Russian positions in Toretsk, using urban warfare tactics and explosives.
4. Baltic Corruption Arrests: The arrests in Baltiysk highlight potential internal issues within Russian administration, but their direct impact on military operations is unclear.
5. US Diplomatic Engagement: Pete Hegseth's upcoming visit to Europe indicates continued US involvement in coordinating support for Ukraine, though his specific role remains to be clarified.
6. Trump's Stance on Aid: Trump's questioning of aid to Ukraine is a significant development, potentially impacting future US support.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. URGENT: Reassess and Re-deploy Air Defenses for Kyiv (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):
   • Immediately investigate the origin of the drones approaching Kyiv from the south. Determine if this is a new attack vector or a change in tactics.
   • Re-deploy air defense assets to cover the southern approaches to Kyiv, potentially shifting resources from other areas if necessary.
   • Maintain maximum alert status across all regions experiencing drone activity.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
2. Assess Kurakhove Situation (Medium Priority):
   • While Russian control is confirmed, independent verification of the extent of damage, civilian casualties, and the level of genuine support for Russian forces is needed.
   • Use intelligence assets to monitor Russian activities in Kurakhove, including troop deployments, fortification efforts, and interactions with the civilian population.
3. Support Operations in Toretsk (High Priority):
   • Continue to provide support to Ukrainian forces engaging in urban warfare in Toretsk.
   • Ensure adequate supplies of explosives and drone support for targeted strikes.
4. Monitor Internal Russian Developments (Low Priority):
   • Keep track of internal Russian developments, such as the arrests in Baltiysk, for potential impacts on military operations or morale, though these are likely to be limited.
5. Clarify Pete Hegseth's Role (Medium Priority):
   • Seek clarification on Pete Hegseth's specific role in the upcoming meetings in Europe.
   • Assess the potential impact of his involvement on US policy and support for Ukraine.
6. Monitor Trump's Statements on Ukraine (High Priority):
   • Closely monitor Trump's public statements and actions regarding aid to Ukraine.
   • Assess the potential implications of a change in US policy on the course of the conflict.
7. Exploit Russian Drone Vulnerability: Continue to analyze any vulnerabilities of Russian drones.
8. Address the situation in Toretsk. The actions conducted in the video, showcasing the collaboration of the special forces "Eney" brigade "Lyut" with the "Hyzhak" brigade, highlight a critical aspect of modern warfare: the integration of special forces with conventional patrol units.

The drone threat to Kyiv from the south is the most critical and immediate development, demanding immediate action and reassessment of air defense strategies. The confirmed Russian strike near Kurakhove reinforces the ongoing fighting in that area. Trump's questioning of aid to Ukraine adds a significant political dimension to the conflict, requiring close monitoring. The widespread and persistent drone attacks remain the dominant factor shaping the current military situation.