Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 21:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 21:00 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Drone Warfare (Extremely High Priority)

• Drone Activity Continues (Confirmed & Expanded): Drone threats persist across multiple regions, with new reports indicating movements towards Vyshhorod and Obukhiv, near Kyiv.
  • Kyiv Region: Drones approaching Vyshhorod and Obukhiv. This indicates a potential renewed threat to the capital.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Still a threat, but updates are needed.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Threat persists; details are being clarified.
  • Chernihiv/Sumy Border: Drones still active.
  • Cherkasy: Drones still active.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones still active.
  • Kremenchuk Area: Drones still active.
  • Dnipro: Drones still active.
  • Pershotravensk Area: Drones still active.
  • Zaporizhzhia (West): Drone activity continues, now reported heading West.
  • Kropyvnytskyi (South): Drones still active.
  • Poltava:
    • Drones were heading to/through the city.
    • Three drones coming from Sumy Oblast.
    • Three drones passing through Myrhohod.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Zlatopil): Drone activity continues.
  • Okhtyrka -> Poltava Oblast: Drone activity continues.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Confirmed drone threat.
  • Pryluky area: One drone reported.
  • Chernihiv (East): Four drones, heading southwest.
  • Konotop area: Two drones, heading southwest.
  • Yelanets area: Three drones, heading west.
  • Oleksandriia area: Three drones, moving towards Smila.
  • Kremenchuk (North): Three drones, heading west.
• Mykolaivska Oblast - New Drone Threat (Confirmed): Attack drones are confirmed.

Ground Operations

• Kurakhove (Donetsk Region, Confirmed Russian Control): A Russian military correspondent (Maryana Naumova) reports from Kurakhove, confirming its capture by Russian forces "almost a month ago." She describes the town as relatively intact compared to Mariupol, Avdiivka, and Marinka, despite damage to windows and facades. She emphasizes that several thousand residents remain and are receiving assistance from Russian forces. This confirms Russian control and provides a firsthand, albeit biased, account of the situation on the ground.
• Toretsk (Donetsk Region, Confirmed Ukrainian Action): Ukrainian forces (Lyut Assault Brigade and Eney Special Operations Battalion) report using explosives to target Russian positions in Toretsk. Drone footage shows urban warfare and the destruction of buildings. This confirms continued fighting in Toretsk and highlights Ukrainian tactics in urban environments.
• Kupyansk Direction (Confirmed Ukrainian Action): Ukrainian forces report destroying a significant amount of Russian equipment.

Internal Security (Russia)

• Baltiysk (Kaliningrad Region, Corruption Arrests): The head of Baltiysk, Sergey Melnikov, and his deputy, Maxim Kovalenko, have been arrested on suspicion of bribery. This indicates potential internal issues within Russian administration, though its impact on military operations is likely minimal.

Diplomatic Developments

• Pete Hegseth to Visit Europe (Confirmed): The Pentagon confirms that Pete Hegseth will visit Germany, Belgium, and Poland next week, and will participate in a meeting on Ukraine in Brussels. This indicates continued US engagement in coordinating support for Ukraine, though the specifics of Hegseth's role require further clarification.

Ukrainian Personnel Changes

• New ambassadors appointed.
• Changes in the composition of the National Security and Defense Council.

Information Operations

• Pro-Russian Claims of Kurakhove Situation: Maryana Naumova's report from Kurakhove is clearly intended to portray Russian forces as benevolent and in control, while highlighting the resilience of pro-Russian residents. The video is attempting to depict civilians in a positive light.
• Russian Propaganda continues.

Overall Situation Assessment (Changes Highlighted)

1. Intensified and Widespread Drone Warfare: Continues. The number of active drones continues to increase, and regions are under threat, stretching Ukrainian air defenses.
2. Confirmed Russian Control of Kurakhove: The firsthand report from a Russian correspondent confirms Russian control of Kurakhove, though the extent of damage and civilian support is presented from a pro-Russian perspective.
3. Continued Fighting in Toretsk: Ukrainian forces are actively engaging Russian positions in Toretsk, using urban warfare tactics and explosives.
4. Baltic Corruption Arrests: The arrests in Baltiysk highlight potential internal issues within Russian administration, but their direct impact on military operations is unclear.
5. US Diplomatic Engagement: Pete Hegseth's upcoming visit to Europe indicates continued US involvement in coordinating support for Ukraine, though his specific role remains to be clarified.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. Maintain Maximum Air Defense Alert (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):
   • *Continue to prioritize air defense against the ongoing drone attacks, paying particular attention to the new threats near Kyiv (Vyshhorod and Obukhiv).
   • Deploy all available resources to intercept drones and protect critical infrastructure.
   • Consider redeploying air defense assets to areas with increased drone activity, based on real-time threat assessments.
2. Assess Kurakhove Situation (Medium Priority):
   • While Russian control is confirmed, independent verification of the extent of damage, civilian casualties, and the level of genuine support for Russian forces is needed.
   • Use intelligence assets to monitor Russian activities in Kurakhove, including troop deployments, fortification efforts, and interactions with the civilian population.
3. Support Operations in Toretsk (High Priority):
   • Continue to provide support to Ukrainian forces engaging in urban warfare in Toretsk.
   • Ensure adequate supplies of explosives and drone support for targeted strikes.
4. Monitor Internal Russian Developments (Low Priority):
   • Keep track of internal Russian developments, such as the arrests in Baltiysk, for potential impacts on military operations or morale, though these are likely to be limited.
5. Clarify Pete Hegseth's Role (Medium Priority):
   • Seek clarification on Pete Hegseth's specific role in the upcoming meetings in Europe.
   • Assess the potential impact of his involvement on US policy and support for Ukraine.
6. Exploit Russian Drone Vulnerability: Continue to analyze any vulnerabilities of Russian drones.
7. Address the situation in Toretsk. The actions conducted in the video, showcasing the collaboration of the special forces "Eney" brigade "Lyut" with the "Hyzhak" brigade, highlight a critical aspect of modern warfare: the integration of special forces with conventional patrol units.

The situation remains highly dynamic. The drone attacks represent the most urgent threat, requiring immediate and sustained air defense efforts. Confirmed Russian control of Kurakhove necessitates a reassessment of the situation in the Donetsk region, while continued fighting in Toretsk highlights the ongoing urban warfare challenges. US diplomatic engagement remains a key factor, and internal Russian developments should be monitored for potential impacts.