Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 21:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 20:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)
Drone Warfare (Extremely High Priority)
Drone Activity Continues (Confirmed): Drone threats persist across multiple regions:
Kyiv Region: Drone threat ongoing.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones entering from Kyiv region and Uman.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: New threat of attack drones, also coming from Vinnytsia Oblast.
Chernihiv/Sumy Border: Three drones.
Cherkasy: One drone, loud explosions possible.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Seven drones entering from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Kremenchuk Area: Three drones, heading Northwest.
Dnipro: One drone, loud explosions possible.
Pershotravensk Area: Three drones, heading West.
Zaporizhzhia (West): Two drones, heading Northwest.
Kropyvnytskyi (South): One drone, heading Southwest.
Poltava: Three drones, heading to/through the city.
Kharkiv Oblast (Zlatopil): One drone.
Okhtyrka -> Poltava Oblast: One drone.
Mykolaiv Oblast: New threat of attack drones.
Kyiv Drone Shootdown (Claimed): Video purportedly shows the shooting down of a drone over Kyiv. This needs independent verification but indicates active air defense engagements.
Dnipro Explosions (Reported & Confirmed): Explosions heard in Dnipro. This is likely related to the ongoing drone attacks and needs confirmation of targets and damage.
Ground Operations
Selidove (Donetsk Region, Claimed Strike): Reports of a strike on the headquarters of the 35th Separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Selidove. Needs confirmation. If true, this would represent a significant blow to Ukrainian command and control in the area.
Yampolivka (Luhansk Region, Confirmed Advance): Russian forces are attacking with armored vehicles in Yampolivka, with reported advances along the eastern bank of the Oskil River towards the south of Tern, reaching residential areas of Yampolivka up to 900 meters. This confirms continued Russian offensive efforts in the Luhansk region.
Kremennaia - Yampolivka (Confirmed Fighting): Active combat operations are taking place near Kremennaia.
Pokrovsk Direction (Confirmed Intense Fighting): Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses 27 times. This indicates continued heavy fighting in this area.
Internal Security (Russia)
Voronezh (Russia, FSB Raid, Claimed): Pro-Russian sources claim an FSB raid in Voronezh targeted a Ukrainian woman planning a terrorist attack against Russian servicemen. Allegedly, components for homemade explosives were found. This could be legitimate counter-terrorism, propaganda, or a pretext for increased security measures. Requires independent verification.
Military Aid and Recruitment
Ukraine: New Contract Service: Zelensky announces special contract service conditions for 18-24-year-olds, emphasizing voluntary enlistment with benefits and high pay for a one-year term. This is a significant shift, attempting to attract younger recruits without resorting to full mobilization. Further details have been released, confirming the one-year term and "very high financial compensation."
Ukrainian Youth: A picture with the text "Take young people away from Ukraine, while you can."
Russia: 155th Marine Brigade Recruitment: Active recruitment drive for the 155th Marine Brigade, targeting "strong-spirited men."
Geopolitical Developments
USAID Funding Halt: Former UK Prime Minister and WHO Ambassador Gordon Brown claims that halting USAID funding will weaken the US and be a tragedy for the world.
Baltic Energy Independence (Potential Disruptions): Baltic states are warned to prepare for potential 72-hour power outages due to separation from the BRELL energy ring. This highlights the vulnerability of the Baltic states to Russian energy pressure.
Ukraine: Advance in Kursk: Zelensky has confirmed the Ukrainian troops' advance of 2.5 km in the Kursk region.
Ukraine-US Strategic Resource Deal (Proposed): Zelensky, in an interview with Reuters, stated Ukraine is ready for an agreement with the US regarding rare earth metals and the use of Ukrainian gas storage facilities for American liquefied gas intended for Europe. This is a major development, linking resource security to broader geopolitical alliances. In exchange, Ukraine expects security guarantees.A meeting between Trump and Zelensky is expected next week.
Trump-Zelensky Meeting: Scheduled for next week.
Information Operations
Pro-Russian Sources: Continue to solicit donations for equipment, particularly thermal imagers, for Russian forces.
Pro-Russian Claim of Ukrainian Surrender: A video shows a Ukrainian soldier surrendering, while the Russians fire at the building.
Pro-Ukrainian Propaganda: Continues to highlight Ukrainian successes and attempt to demoralize Russian troops.
Pro-Russian Propaganda: A picture of a group of people near the fire and with Lithuanian flag is shown.
Russian Military Science: Russian military scientists awarded for their work, including studying captured equipment.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Report (22:00 UTC, February 7, 2025):
116 Combat Clashes: Reported throughout the day.
Russian Attacks: 90 airstrikes (149 KABs), 961 kamikaze drones, and over 4,000 shellings of Ukrainian positions and settlements.
Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled an attack near Vovchansk.
Kupiansk Direction: Nine Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Lozova.
Lyman Direction: 13 Russian attacks near Kopanky, Novoiehorivka, Novoliubivka, and Yampolivka; four battles ongoing.
Siversk Direction: 13 Russian attempts to advance near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske; three battles ongoing.
Kramatorsk Direction: Three ongoing battles near Chasiv Yar and Predtechyne.
Toretsk Direction: Ten Russian attacks repelled, primarily near Toretsk.
Pokrovsk Direction: 27 Russian attempts to break through defenses; one battle ongoing. Significant Russian losses reported: 250 casualties (131 irreversible), 17 vehicles, four motorcycles, one BM-21 Grad, one damaged vehicle, two artillery systems, a tank, and a multiple rocket launcher system.
Novopavlivsk Direction: Eight Russian attacks, two battles ongoing near Kostiantynopil.
Kursk Operational Zone: 23 Russian attacks repelled, one ongoing.
Huliaipole, Orikhiv and Dnipro Directions: No enemy actions.
Intensified and Widespread Drone Warfare: The massive and multi-directional drone attacks remain the most pressing immediate threat. The number of reported drone movements has increased significantly, now including Mykolaiv Oblast. Multiple regions are under threat, stretching Ukrainian air defenses.
Potential Command and Control Disruption: The claimed strike on the 35th Separate Marine Brigade HQ in Selidove, if confirmed, would be a significant setback for Ukrainian forces.
Russian Advances in Luhansk: Confirmed Russian advances near Yampolivka represent a continued threat in the Luhansk region.
Ukrainian Recruitment Shift: The new contract service program signals a major change in Ukrainian recruitment strategy, aiming to attract young volunteers with incentives. Further details confirm a one-year term and high pay.
Baltic Energy Vulnerability: The warning to Baltic states about potential power outages highlights their dependence on Russian energy and potential vulnerability to pressure.
Fighting in Multiple Areas: Fighting continues in multiple areas, including Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Novopavlivsk. Intense fighting is confirmed around Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian advance: Ukrainian advance confirmed in the Kursk region.
Strategic Resource Diplomacy: Zelensky's offer of a resource deal with the US, in exchange for security guarantees, represents a significant attempt to leverage Ukraine's assets for international support. The planned meeting with Trump next week is a critical development.
Russian Focus on Military Science: Awarding military scientists points to a long-term strategy of learning from current combat.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Maintain Maximum Air Defense Alert (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):
Continue to prioritize air defense against the ongoing drone attacks, particularly in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and now Mykolaiv Oblasts. The sheer number of reported drone movements requires a highly coordinated and adaptable response.
Deploy all available resources to intercept drones and protect critical infrastructure.
Consider redeploying air defense assets to areas with increased drone activity, based on real-time threat assessments.
Verify and Respond to Claimed HQ Strike (High Priority):
Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported strike on the 35th Separate Marine Brigade HQ in Selidove.
If confirmed, assess the damage and impact on command and control, and take immediate steps to mitigate the consequences.
Monitor and Counter Russian Advances in Luhansk (High Priority):
Strengthen defenses near Yampolivka and monitor Russian movements along the Oskil River.
Deploy reinforcements as needed to prevent further Russian advances.
Evaluate and Adapt to Ukrainian Recruitment Shift (Medium Priority, Long-Term):
Monitor the effectiveness of the new contract service program in attracting young volunteers.
Assess the impact on overall force strength and readiness.
Address Baltic Energy Vulnerability (Medium Priority, Long-Term):
Coordinate with Baltic states to assess their energy security and develop contingency plans for potential power outages.
Explore options for diversifying energy sources and reducing dependence on Russia.
Address the advance in Kursk: Address the advance in the Kursk region.
Prepare for US Negotiations (High Priority):
Develop a clear and concise proposal outlining the terms of the strategic resource deal with the US.
Prioritize the security guarantees Ukraine seeks in exchange.
Prepare for the meeting with Trump next week, anticipating potential questions and concerns.
Exploit Russian Drone Vulnerability: Analyze the increasing reports of drone activity, especially successful interceptions, to identify potential vulnerabilities in Russian drone deployment or technology.
The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile. The widespread and intensified drone attacks, potential command and control disruptions, Russian advances, and the proposed US resource deal require immediate and decisive action. Long-term challenges related to recruitment, energy security, and ongoing fighting require sustained attention. Continuous monitoring, rapid adaptation, and proactive diplomacy are crucial for achieving strategic objectives. The proposed strategic resource deal with the US adds a new layer of complexity and opportunity to the situation.
