Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 20:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 19:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)
Drone Warfare (Continued and Intensified)
Extremely Widespread Drone Activity (Confirmed): Reports from multiple sources, especially "Nikolaevskiy Vanyok," detail a massive and multi-directional drone attack across Ukraine:
Kyiv Region: Drone threat continues, with drones moving towards Zhytomyr Oblast.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones entering from Kyiv region.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones entering from Kyiv region.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:Six drones flying towards Dnipro.
Poltava Oblast: Four drones flew over Dnipro and Kamianske towards Poltava Oblast; three drones from Kharkiv Oblast shifting towards Poltava; 10-12 drones flying through Okhtyrka, flying between Myrhorod and Poltava towards Kremenchuk region.
Cherkasy Oblast: Four drones in the area.
Kropyvnytskyi: One drone approaching.
Dolynska: One drone approaching.
Kirovohrad Oblast: One drone in the west, heading towards Pervomaisk region of Mykolaiv Oblast.
Bila Tserkva: 4 drones.
Chernihiv Region: Three drones heading towards/through Chernihiv; one drone from Chernihiv region crossing into Kyiv region.
Air Defenses Active (Belgorod Region, Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down three Ukrainian UAVs over Belgorod Oblast. This indicates Ukrainian drone activity inside Russia and continued Russian air defense efforts.
Military Operations
Makiivka (Donetsk Region, Drone Strike, Claimed): "Voin DV" claims that soldiers from the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier with an FPV drone in the Makiivka area. This provides a specific location and vehicle type, but lacks independent confirmation.
Kursk Region (Casualties, Confirmed): "Kotsnews" reports that the Ukrainian attack in Kursk Region resulted in over 200 Ukrainian casualties, with significant equipment losses: eight tanks, five infantry fighting vehicles, one armored personnel carrier, 30 armored fighting vehicles, three engineering vehicles, and a bridge layer. This is a significant claim of Russian success, but it's from a pro-Russian source and requires independent verification.
Geopolitical Developments
Trump on US Military Spending (Potential Reduction): Trump states that the new US administration will consider reducing military spending. This has major implications for Ukraine, potentially signaling a further decrease in US military aid.
US-North Korea Relations (Potential Improvement): Trump states that the US will maintain relations with North Korea and Kim Jong Un. This is less directly relevant to Ukraine but adds to the overall picture of shifting US foreign policy.
France - Russia Tensions: Maria Zakharova stated that Russia will have to respond, if France continues to escalate the media situation.
Trump and FBI: Trump announced that the new administration would investigate and "clean up" the FBI.
Information Operations
Donations for Russian Forces (Ongoing): Multiple pro-Russian Telegram channels ("Dnevnik Desantnika," "ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA," "Operatsiya Z," "Dva Mayora") continue to solicit donations for equipment, including vehicles, thermal imagers, and armor. This reinforces the reliance of Russian forces on external support and highlights potential logistical vulnerabilities.
Propaganda (Ukraine): "Operativnyi ZSU" posts a video claiming that Ukrainian forces are leaving Russian soldiers "without underwear," likely intended to demoralize Russian troops and boost Ukrainian morale.
USAID: Reports of funding by USAID have been shut down to students from Poland, Romania, Moldova and Slovakia.
Internal Issues:
Russia: There have been reports of cancelled flights in Russia due to "abnormal pressure".
Azerbaijan: The situation in Azerbaijan is evolving.
Massive and Multi-Directional Drone Attack: The scale and scope of the ongoing drone attacks across Ukraine are unprecedented, indicating a major escalation by Russia.
Claimed Ukrainian Losses in Kursk: The reported heavy Ukrainian casualties and equipment losses in the Kursk region, if confirmed, represent a significant setback for Ukraine and a potential shift in momentum in that area.
Trump's Potential Military Spending Cuts: The statement about reducing US military spending is a major concern for Ukraine, as it could lead to a significant decrease in crucial military aid.
Continued Reliance on Donations: Reports of donations highlight that Russian forces are lacking basic supplies.
Flights cancelled: Flights have been cancelled due to "abnormal pressure", possibly due to weather.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Maximize Air Defense Efforts (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):
Deploy all available air defense assets to counter the massive and multi-directional drone attacks across Ukraine.
Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, population centers, and military assets.
Continuously adapt to the evolving drone threat, focusing on intercepting drones before they reach their targets.
Increase air defense efforts in Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia.
Verify Claims of Ukrainian Losses (Kursk Region, High Priority):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported heavy Ukrainian casualties and equipment losses in the Kursk region.
Assess the impact on Ukrainian operational capabilities in the area.
Prepare for Potential US Military Aid Reduction (Extremely High Priority, Long-Term):
Develop contingency plans for a potential decrease in US military aid.
Aggressively diversify sources of military support, focusing on European partners and other countries less susceptible to US influence.
Accelerate efforts to increase domestic arms production.
Counter Drone Warfare (All Fronts, Continued High Priority):
Continue to prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone technologies, including electronic warfare systems and physical interception systems.
Improve intelligence gathering on drone launch sites and flight paths to enable proactive interception.
Sustain Information Operations (Ukraine):
Continue to highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian vulnerabilities.
Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts.
Maintain public morale and support for the war effort.
Address Russia's Shortages: Monitor the reports and use it for strategic planning.
Address internal developments: Pay attention to internal developments.
The situation has escalated significantly with the massive drone attacks across Ukraine and the potential for reduced US military aid. Immediate and decisive action is required to counter the drone threat, verify claims of losses, and prepare for long-term challenges. Continuous monitoring, rapid adaptation, and proactive planning are crucial for mitigating risks and achieving strategic objectives.
