Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 19:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 19:00 UTC, February 7, 2025)
Kyiv Region: Continued Drone Threat and Explosions
Explosions in Kyiv (Confirmed): Both TASS and Ukrainian publication "Strana" report explosions in Kyiv. This confirms the ongoing drone attack and impact on the capital. The Kyiv regional military administration also reported explosions.
Air Defenses Active (Confirmed): Reports of air defenses operating in the Kyiv region in response to the drone threat. This confirms ongoing defensive actions.
Additional Drones: A report of 4 additional drones flying over Brovary and Boryspil towards Bila Tserkva
Drone Activity Across Multiple Regions (Continued and Updated)
Updated Drone Movements (Extensive and Multi-Directional): The Ukrainian Air Force and "Nikolaevskiy Vanyok" provide a detailed breakdown of drone movements across multiple regions:
Kyiv Oblast: Drones in the northeast, moving towards Kyiv; eight drones flew over Nizhyn into the region.
Chernihiv Oblast: Drones in central and southwestern parts, moving southwest; one drone flew over Shostka heading west.
Poltava Oblast: Multiple groups of drones in the west, moving west; three drones flying over Okhtyrka into the region; threat of drone use from the north for Kremenchuk.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 2 drones on the edge with Kharkiv Oblast going to Poltava.
Kharkiv Oblast: Drones in the east, moving west; one drone north of Balakliia, heading west.
Cherkasy: Threat of attack drones, course southwest.
Bila Tserkva: Threat of attack drones from the north.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Drones in the east, moving west; threat of drone use from the south for Dnipro.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Drones in the north, moving towards Dnipro.
Brovary: Drones are in the Brovary area, and they have a southern course.
Donetsk Region
Debunked Claims: The National Police of Ukraine have debunked misinformation regarding increased mobilization.
Kursk Region
Zelenskyy claims: Ukrainian troops began a new offensive on Thursday and advanced 2.5 km deep into Russia's Kursk region.
Geopolitical Developments:
Zelenskyy Offers Partnership to Trump (Resource Focus): Zelenskyy, in an interview with Reuters, proposes a partnership with the US (specifically targeting Trump) to jointly develop Ukrainian resources, particularly rare earth minerals. He highlights that Russia has occupied significant mineral deposits. This represents a direct appeal to US economic interests and a potential attempt to align Ukraine with a possible future Trump administration. He also states the need to defend Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and central Ukraine. He states that less than 20% of mineral deposits are under Russian occupation.
US-Japan Energy Cooperation (Increased LNG Purchases): Trump announces that Japan will begin purchasing record amounts of LNG from the US and that they are discussing energy resource extraction in Alaska. This is indirectly relevant as it highlights US energy priorities and potential resource competition with Russia.
Zelensky-Trump Communication (Planned): Zelenskyy expresses a desire to meet with Trump before any potential Trump-Putin meeting. This indicates a concern about being excluded from crucial discussions and an attempt to influence the US position. Trump stated on Friday that he expects to speak with Zelenskyy next week.
Putin Criticizes Rheinmetall CEO (Reported): German media reports that Putin personally criticized the CEO of Rheinmetall (a major arms manufacturer supplying Ukraine) and that there was a subsequent assassination attempt. This indicates the high stakes and potential for direct targeting of individuals supporting Ukraine's war effort.
Elon Musk States Affection for Trump: A report states Elon Musk expressed his admiration for Trump.
Zelenskyy-Resource Proposal: Zelenskyy proposes an agreement regarding rare earth minerals and peace guarantees.
Internal Russian Issues
Casualty: A man was found dead during a Military Medical Commission check in Chernivtsi.
Sentencing: A resident of the Kherson region has been sentenced to 12.5 years in prison for financially supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Military Operations
Drone Usage: Ukraine states that drones are the technological backbone of modern warfare, and their use will be expanded.
Confirmed Explosions in Kyiv: The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv has resulted in confirmed explosions, indicating successful strikes and potential damage.
Widespread and Persistent Drone Threat: The updated drone movement information reveals a multi-pronged and sustained attack across numerous regions, with multiple drones targeting key cities and infrastructure.
Zelenskyy's Direct Appeal to Trump: The proposal for a resource-focused partnership with the US represents a significant diplomatic move aimed at securing long-term support and potentially influencing US policy.
Reported Russian Targeting of Rheinmetall CEO: This highlights the potential for direct action against individuals and companies supporting Ukraine.
New Offensive in Kursk: Zelenskyy claims Ukraine troops began a new offensive in Kursk.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Sustain and Enhance Air Defense (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action Required):
Maintain maximum alert status and deploy all available air defense assets to counter the ongoing drone attacks across multiple regions, particularly Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Bila Tserkva.
Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
Continuously adapt to the multi-directional and evolving drone threat.
Verify and Respond to Drone Strikes (Extremely High Priority):
Gather intelligence on the impact of the confirmed explosions in Kyiv and other affected areas.
Assess damage to infrastructure and potential casualties.
Adjust air defense strategies based on the success of the Russian strikes.
Analyze and Respond to Zelenskyy's Proposal (High Priority):
Assess the feasibility and potential benefits of Zelenskyy's proposed resource partnership.
Develop a strategy for engaging with the US (and potentially a future Trump administration) on this issue.
Consider the implications for long-term resource security and economic cooperation.
Monitor Potential Retaliation Against Individuals/Companies (High Priority):
Increase intelligence gathering efforts to identify and mitigate any potential threats to individuals or companies supporting Ukraine's war effort.
Assess the security implications of the reported targeting of the Rheinmetall CEO.
Continue to prioritize the development and deployment of electronic warfare systems to jam and disrupt drone communications.
Invest in and deploy counter-drone systems capable of physically intercepting or destroying drones.
Disseminate best practices for mitigating drone threats to all personnel.
Verify the offensive: Check on the reported offensive in Kursk.
The situation remains highly critical, with the ongoing and widespread drone attacks posing a significant threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and population centers. Zelenskyy's direct appeal to Trump adds a new layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape, while the reported targeting of the Rheinmetall CEO highlights the potential for escalation and unconventional warfare. Continuous monitoring, rapid response, and proactive adaptation are crucial for mitigating risks and achieving strategic objectives.
