Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 19:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 18:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)
Kursk Region: Confirmed Heavy Drone Activity
Olgovka Area (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" reports ongoing fighting and shares drone footage, stated to be from the Olgovka area, of destroyed buildings. This indicates continued activity near previously reported areas of Ukrainian incursions, suggesting the front line remains contested.
Kyiv Region: Air Raid Alert
Air Raid Alert in Kyiv (Confirmed): Kyiv City Military Administration and "Operativnyi ZSU" confirm an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of Russian attack drones. "Nikolaevskiy Vanyok" reports at least two drones approaching Kyiv, one from Brovary and another approaching Vyshgorod. This represents an immediate and ongoing threat to the capital.
Zaporizhzhia Region: Air Raid Alert
Air Raid Alert (Confirmed): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration announces an air raid alert. This indicates a potential threat of missile or drone strikes in the region.
Selidovo: Reported Strike on Russian Headquarters
Reported Strike (Reported): "Operativnyi ZSU" and "Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights" report a successful Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Russian 35th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in occupied Selidovo. They claim "all at once" casualties. This, if confirmed, would represent a significant blow to Russian command and control in the area. Requires further verification. Images were shared of the aftermath.
Donetsk Region: Debunked Claims of Toretsk Capture
Disinformation in Toretsk (Reported): "RBK-Ukraina" reports claims of a Russian push on Toretsk. Ivan Tymochko, head of the Reserve Council of the Ground Forces, reports it as disinformation, but also claims the same Russian tactic has been used before, referencing the "capture" of Marinka.
Substation Damage: A substation in Konstantinovka was reported to have been damaged by a FPV drone.
Geopolitical Developments:
US-Russia Negotiations (Denied): "Argumenty i Fakty", citing Dmitry Peskov, reports that Moscow and Washington have not held negotiations regarding a possible meeting between the presidents of Russia and the US. This contradicts earlier reports and suggests that high-level diplomatic engagement is not currently underway.
US Sanctions on Russia (Possible): TASS, citing Keith Kellogg, reports that US President Donald Trump is ready to strengthen sanctions against Russia to help end the conflict in Ukraine. This indicates a potential shift towards a more coercive approach from the US.
Bulgaria-Ukraine (Confirmed): Euractiv reports Bulgaria will receive €500 million in compensation for military aid to Ukraine.
Hungary (Confirmed): Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban called Hungary a "pariah" of the West due to pressure from the US and EU.
Ukraine (Confirmed): Adviser to the head of Vladimir Zelensky's office, Mikhail Podolyak, stated that Kyiv would like to provoke a direct military conflict between the United States and the Russian Federation.
Deteriorating Azerbaijan-Russia Relations (Confirmed): "General SVR" states that the refusal of the Russian leadership to admit responsibility for the Azerbaijani Azal plane has led to serious problems in bilateral relations with Azerbaijan.
Propaganda: There are numerous reports of propaganda, with news outlets reporting on different sides.
Internal Russian Issues
Military Issues: The deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Vasily Trushin, said that thanks to science, Russian air defense systems have become more effective at countering "Storm Shadow" and "ATACMS" missiles. He also stated the effectiveness of Russian weapons is at least 90%.
Military Operations
Air Defenses: It has been stated that Russian air defenses have become more effective at countering "Storm Shadow" and "ATACMS" missiles.
Mobilization Issues: Reports of the "Reserve+" military record application, and the potential to extend delays.
Air Raid Alerts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia: The immediate threat of drone attacks in Kyiv and a potential threat in Zaporizhzhia require urgent attention.
Reported Strike on Russian Headquarters in Selidovo: If confirmed, this represents a major success for Ukrainian forces, potentially disrupting Russian command and control in the area.
Confirmed Ongoing Activity in Kursk Region (Olgovka): This suggests the situation in the Kursk region remains volatile and contested.
Denial of US-Russia Negotiations: The lack of high-level diplomatic engagement between the US and Russia indicates a continued reliance on military means to achieve objectives.
Potential for Increased US Sanctions: The threat of stronger US sanctions against Russia suggests a potential shift in the US approach, potentially increasing pressure on Russia.
Debunked Claims: Russia has supposedly spread disinformation regarding Toretsk.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Prioritize Air Defense in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia:[Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action Required]
Deploy all available air defense assets to protect Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia from potential drone and missile strikes.
Maintain a high state of alert and be prepared to engage any incoming threats.
Verify and Exploit Strike in Selidovo:[Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action Required]
Gather intelligence to confirm the reported strike on the Russian 35th Brigade headquarters in Selidovo.
Assess the extent of the damage and casualties.
Exploit any potential disruption to Russian command and control in the area.
Monitor and Respond to Activity in Kursk Region:[High Priority] (Previous recommendations remain valid)
Continue to monitor the situation in the Olgovka area and be prepared to respond to any further Ukrainian incursions.
Reinforce defenses and maintain a high state of readiness.
Assess Implications of US-Russia Non-Engagement:[High Priority]
Analyze the implications of the lack of high-level diplomatic engagement between the US and Russia.
Prepare for a potential prolonged period of military conflict.
Prepare for Potential Increased US Sanctions:[High Priority]
Assess the potential impact of stronger US sanctions against Russia on the Ukrainian economy and war effort.
Develop strategies to mitigate any negative consequences.
Continue to prioritize the development and deployment of electronic warfare systems to jam and disrupt drone communications.
Invest in and deploy counter-drone systems capable of physically intercepting or destroying drones.
Disseminate best practices for mitigating drone threats to all personnel.
Debunked Claims: Prepare responses to claims.
The situation remains highly dynamic, with immediate threats from air attacks, potential opportunities from successful strikes, and ongoing challenges in contested areas. Continuous monitoring, rapid response, and proactive measures are crucial for ensuring mission success and minimizing risks. The air raid alerts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia require immediate attention, while the reported strike in Selidovo and the situation in the Kursk region present both opportunities and challenges. The lack of US-Russia diplomatic engagement and the potential for increased sanctions suggest a continued reliance on military means and economic pressure to achieve objectives.
