Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 17:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 17:00 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region:
"Сливочный каприз" (17:04:34 UTC) reports active combat operations near Sudzha and an attack by Ukrainian forces using armored vehicles towards Fanaseevka. Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian positions in a forest east of Fanaseevka. They claim Ukrainian forces have expanded their control zone by 700 meters along the front. Coordinates provided: 51.13899, 35.36463. This indicates ongoing, contested fighting in the area, with Ukrainian advances.
MoD Russia (17:01:26 UTC) published video footage claiming artillery strikes by the 40th Marine Brigade of the "Sever" Group of Forces against Ukrainian assault detachments in the border area. This reinforces the narrative of intense fighting in the region.
"Операция Z" (17:00:51 UTC) reported a attempted diversionary attack against Russian troops by placing explosives in FPV goggles sent as humanitarian aid.
Konstantinovka (Donetsk Region):[Confirmed, Major Impact] "Alex Parker Returns" (17:01:05 UTC) corroborates previous reports that the "Mayskaya" 330 kV substation was disabled by Russian FPV drone strikes, resulting in a fire and oil leak. This confirms a successful attack on critical infrastructure, likely causing power disruptions.
Sumy Region:
The Ukrainian Air Force announced a drone threat in the region.
Seversk Area (Donetsk Region): [New Information, Confirmed Location].* "Сливочный каприз" (16:26:20 UTC) reports a counter-battery engagement, with the successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) using an FPV drone by Russian forces. The strike resulted in the detonation of ammunition. The location is specified as 48.877394, 38.139856, more than 5km from the line of contact. This confirms the use of FPV drones for counter-battery fire at significant ranges.
Drone Warfare
Drone Attack Attempts (Alleged, Kursk & Other Regions):
Multiple reports ("ASTRA," "Операция Z") suggest possible drone attacks or attempted attacks in various regions. The reported restriction of flights at Murmansk airport (later lifted) was potentially related to a drone threat. "Операция Z" claims unknown individuals attempted a diversionary attack against Russian military personnel by sending explosive-laden FPV goggles via a humanitarian aid channel. These reports highlight the persistent and evolving threat posed by drones, including potential use in sabotage and unconventional attacks.
Extensive Drone Activity:[Continued, Multiple Regions] Drone activity is reported in multiple regions.
Geopolitical Developments
Poland: The Prime Minister of Poland requests the plan to deport illegal immigrants. [No change, Minor Impact]
Syria: New leadership, and they are proposing to Erdogan the placement of Turkish military bases in the country. [No change, Potentially Significant Impact]
Internal Russian Issues
Arrests:
Evgeny Anisimov, author of the "Beautiful Russia" channel, was sent to pre-trial detention until March 21. He is accused of inciting hatred and enmity towards law enforcement officers because of nine videos on the YouTube channel "Beautiful Russia."
Ruslan Altiev, a veteran who was reportedly released from prison to fight in the war, has been arrested.
Novgorod: Early elections of the head of the Novgorod region will be held in September.
Confirmed Critical Infrastructure Attack: The successful Russian FPV drone strike on the "Mayskaya" substation in Konstantinovka is a significant development, demonstrating the increasing precision and effectiveness of drone warfare against high-value targets.
Continued Fighting and Ukrainian Advances in Kursk Region: The situation in the Kursk region remains highly contested, with continued fighting and confirmed Ukrainian advances.
Persistent and Evolving Drone Threat: Reports of drone attacks, attempted attacks, and unconventional tactics (explosive-laden goggles) highlight the continuous and evolving nature of the drone threat.
Potential Sabotage and Unconventional Attacks: The alleged attempt to use explosive-laden FPV goggles sent through a humanitarian aid channel raises concerns about potential sabotage and unconventional attack methods.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures:[Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action Required] (Maintain and expand all previous recommendations).
Accelerate the development and deployment of electronic warfare systems to jam and disrupt drone communications.
Invest in and deploy counter-drone systems capable of physically intercepting or destroying drones, particularly FPV drones.
Disseminate best practices for mitigating drone threats to all personnel, including concealment, dispersal, and awareness of drone capabilities.
Implement strict security protocols for all deliveries, especially those labeled as "humanitarian aid," to prevent the infiltration of explosive devices or other harmful materials. Thoroughly inspect all packages and equipment.
Verify and Respond to Mirage 2000 Reports:[High Priority]
Immediately seek confirmation from Ukrainian and allied sources regarding the presence and operational status of Mirage 2000 fighters in Ukrainian airspace.
If confirmed, assess the potential impact on the air war and adjust air defense and offensive air strategies accordingly.
Prepare for potential Russian responses, including increased air activity and attempts to target the aircraft and their support infrastructure.
Clarify Situation in Kursk Region:[High Priority]
Conduct thorough reconnaissance and intelligence gathering to verify the extent of Ukrainian presence and activity in the Kursk region.
Address the conflicting reports and ensure accurate information flow between military command and public communication channels.
Develop and implement strategies to counter Ukrainian infiltration and regain control of lost territory, if necessary.
Monitor and Analyze "Yalta 2.0" Discussions:[High Priority]
Closely monitor statements and actions from Russian officials regarding potential negotiations.
Assess the potential implications of any proposed "new geopolitical configuration" and develop strategies to counter any unfavorable outcomes.
Engage with international partners to coordinate diplomatic efforts and ensure a unified approach to any potential negotiations.
Address potential infrastructure attacks: Assess infrastructure capabilities to ensure minimal damage to Russian strikes. [No Change, High Priority]
Investigate loss: Find out more about the loss of the Russian brigade. [No Change, High Priority]
Address claims: Address accusations made by ASTRA regarding the Kursk Region. [No Change, High Priority]
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented in conjunction with these updated priorities. The situation remains highly volatile, with the continued evolution of drone warfare, potential use of unconventional tactics, and ongoing fighting requiring constant adaptation and proactive measures.
