Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 17:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 16:31 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Seversk Area (Donetsk Region):[New Information, Confirmed Location].* "Сливочный каприз" (16:26:20 UTC) reports a counter-battery engagement, with the successful destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) using an FPV drone by Russian forces. The strike resulted in the detonation of ammunition. The location is specified as 48.877394, 38.139856, more than 5km from the line of contact. This confirms the use of FPV drones for counter-battery fire at significant ranges.
Kursk Region:
"Два майора" (16:44:53 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces have occupied the forest and plantings west of Ulanok and east of Fanaseevka, corroborating earlier reports. They mention TASS publishing footage from the Russian Ministry of Defense. This confirms the ongoing Ukrainian presence in the area.
"Воин DV" (16:35:42 UTC) provides video footage claiming to show the destruction of Ukrainian infantry and positions in the Kursk region by drone operators from the "BAKSAN" unit. This highlights the continued use of drones for targeted strikes in the region.
ASTRA (16:48:24 UTC) reports claims from Z-channels accusing Russian command of false reports about the situation in the Kursk direction. They quote Roman Alekhin, who blames the Russian command for the Ukrainian advance and potential further advances, accusing them of sending unprepared soldiers into battle and increasing losses. Alekhin specifically criticizes General Sukhrab Akhmedov. This reveals internal dissent and criticism within pro-Russian sources regarding the handling of the situation in the Kursk region.
Konstantinovka: The "Майская" 330 kV substation has been disabled by Russian forces.
Staff neutralized: All of the staff from a Russian brigade have been neutralized.
Drone Warfare
Drone Attack in Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Further Details): [No change in assessment; clarifying details].
Extensive Drone Activity:
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (16:33:38 UTC) reports using an FPV drone to shoot down a Ukrainian hexacopter carrying mines. This demonstrates the use of drones for counter-drone operations.
"Оперативний ЗСУ" (16:37:22 UTC) shows footage of a makeshift drone constructed from four FPV drones attached to a wooden frame with a surveillance camera. This highlights the continued innovation and adaptation in drone warfare, potentially indicating a response to resource constraints.
"Colonelcassad" (16:45:50 UTC) reports that FPV drones disabled the "Mayskaya" 330 kV substation in Konstantinovka, causing a fire and oil leak. This confirms the use of FPV drones for precision strikes against critical infrastructure.*
NATO Competition: "Оперативний ЗСУ" (16:59:28 UTC) reports that NATO has launched a "Counter glide bombs" competition to find solutions against Russian KABs (guided aerial bombs). The competition focuses on detection, electronic jamming, preventing aircraft from reaching launch points, destroying the bombs in the air, protecting critical infrastructure, and economic efficiency. This indicates a significant effort to counter a specific Russian weapon system.
Air Operations
Mirage 2000 Fighters (Unconfirmed Reports): Multiple sources ("ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS", "РБК-Україна", "STERNENKO", "Военкор Котенок") show images and videos of Mirage 2000 fighter jets, claiming they are operating in Ukrainian airspace, potentially being transferred from Poland. "Военкор Котенок" mentions that French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu previously announced the delivery of these aircraft, with a total of 18-20 planned, capable of carrying Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. These reports, if confirmed, would represent a significant enhancement of Ukrainian air capabilities.
Murmansk Airport (Update): TASS (16:51:01 UTC) reports that restrictions on aircraft operations at Murmansk airport were lifted at 19:05 Moscow time (16:05 UTC). This suggests the initial restriction was likely temporary and related to a specific, short-term issue.
Political and Diplomatic Developments
Novgorod Region Governor Resignation: TASS (16:46:54, 16:54:22 UTC) reports that Putin has accepted the resignation of Andrei Nikitin as Governor of the Novgorod Region. This could have implications for regional administration and stability, though the direct impact on military operations is unclear.
Potential Negotiations (Yalta 2.0): Kotsnews (16:59:06 UTC) reports discussions about a potential "Yalta 2.0," referencing the 1945 Yalta Conference. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov is quoted as not ruling out the idea, but in the context of forcing Washington into negotiations that solidify a new geopolitical configuration based on the results of the "Special Military Operation." The post contrasts Franklin D. Roosevelt's comments about Crimea with Donald Trump's statements about the Gaza Strip. This highlights the ongoing discussion about potential negotiations and the differing perspectives on the conditions and outcomes.*
Poland: The Prime Minister of Poland requests the plan to deport illegal immigrants.
Syria: New leadership, and they are proposing to Erdogan the placement of Turkish military bases in the country.
Other
Humanitarian Aid: "Народная милиция ДНР" (16:34:16 UTC) shows a video of humanitarian aid being delivered to a care facility for the elderly and disabled in the Starobesheve district. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian needs in conflict-affected areas.
Propaganda: "Басурин о главном" (16:59:06 UTC) shows a video promoting the Ukraina.ru news channel, claiming that soldiers on the front lines read it for reliable information. This is a clear example of propaganda aimed at promoting a specific media outlet.
Fundraising: "Шеф Hayabusa" (16:54:05 UTC) reports on a fundraising campaign for new equipment, stating that half the target amount has been raised in three weeks. This highlights the reliance on crowdfunding for military resources. "Старше Эдды" (16:54:20 UTC) and "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (16:56:17 UTC) show a video and post about the "Berdysh" heavy drone project, requesting financial assistance for its development and production. This emphasizes the ongoing efforts to develop and deploy new drone technology through crowdfunding and public support.
Continued and Expanded Drone Warfare: The confirmed use of FPV drones for precision strikes against critical infrastructure (Konstantinovka substation) and counter-battery fire (Seversk area) demonstrates the increasing sophistication and tactical importance of drone warfare. The reports of a makeshift drone and counter-drone operations further emphasize this trend. NATO's "Counter glide bombs" competition highlights the international concern about Russian guided aerial bombs and the race to develop countermeasures.
Potential Introduction of Mirage 2000 Fighters: The unconfirmed reports of Mirage 2000 fighters operating in Ukrainian airspace, potentially transferred from Poland, represent a potentially significant shift in air power dynamics. If confirmed, this would provide Ukraine with a more advanced multirole fighter capability.
Ongoing Fighting and Conflicting Reports in Kursk Region: The situation in the Kursk region remains contested, with continued fighting and Ukrainian presence in certain areas. The conflicting reports between official Russian sources and Z-channels highlight internal dissent and potential information warfare.
Discussion of Potential Negotiations ("Yalta 2.0"): The mention of "Yalta 2.0" and the quotes from Russian officials indicate ongoing discussions about potential negotiations, but with a clear emphasis on Russia dictating the terms and solidifying its gains.
Staff Loss: The whole staff of the 35th brigade was neutralized.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures:[Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action Required] (Maintain and expand all previous recommendations).
Accelerate the development and deployment of electronic warfare systems to jam and disrupt drone communications.
Invest in and deploy counter-drone systems capable of physically intercepting or destroying drones, particularly FPV drones.
Disseminate best practices for mitigating drone threats to all personnel, including concealment, dispersal, and awareness of drone capabilities.
Verify and Respond to Mirage 2000 Reports:[High Priority]
Immediately seek confirmation from Ukrainian and allied sources regarding the presence and operational status of Mirage 2000 fighters in Ukrainian airspace.
If confirmed, assess the potential impact on the air war and adjust air defense and offensive air strategies accordingly.
Prepare for potential Russian responses, including increased air activity and attempts to target the aircraft and their support infrastructure.
Clarify Situation in Kursk Region:[High Priority]
Conduct thorough reconnaissance and intelligence gathering to verify the extent of Ukrainian presence and activity in the Kursk region.
Address the conflicting reports and ensure accurate information flow between military command and public communication channels.
Develop and implement strategies to counter Ukrainian infiltration and regain control of lost territory, if necessary.
Monitor and Analyze "Yalta 2.0" Discussions:[High Priority]
Closely monitor statements and actions from Russian officials regarding potential negotiations.
Assess the potential implications of any proposed "new geopolitical configuration" and develop strategies to counter any unfavorable outcomes.
Engage with international partners to coordinate diplomatic efforts and ensure a unified approach to any potential negotiations.
Address potential infrastructure attacks: Assess infrastructure capabilities to ensure minimal damage to Russian strikes.
Investigate loss: Find out more about the loss of the Russian brigade.
Address claims: Address accusations made by ASTRA regarding the Kursk Region.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented in conjunction with these updated priorities. The situation remains highly volatile, with the continued evolution of drone warfare and the potential introduction of new air capabilities requiring constant adaptation and proactive measures.
